Prospects dim for quick home-price recovery

[newguy]

Just read this article on CNN. Here’s an excerpt:

Among the 20 cities surveyed, Detroit took the biggest hit, with prices sliding 8.4 percent over the past 12 months. Michigan’s economy has suffered from decades of cuts in domestic automobile manufacturing, and taken another hit from the recent spike in gas prices.

The second worst performer, San Diego, where prices fell 6.0 percent, was a bit more of a surprise; that California market has many things going for it, such as job growth, a growing population and little dependence on old, rust-belt industries.

…..

But prices in San Diego, as in many California cities, had risen so quickly and reached so high a level (the median price in San Diego topped out above $600,000 last year) that the run-up became unsustainable. Prices had exceeded affordability for the average resident there.

Here’s the link if you care to read: http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/29/real_estate/home_price_recovery_appears_unlikely/index.htm?postversion=2007052913

[GoUSC]

Last time I checked San Diego really wasn’t on fire in terms of job growth & population growth…

[GoUSC]

Last time I checked San Diego really wasn’t on fire in terms of job growth & population growth…

[farbet]

Has anyone checked sdlookup.com recently? The amount of houses betweem 800K and 1million plus has balooned within the past week or so.Zip 92009,92011,92024. So who will buy these houses? Something got to give!! Any thoughts sdrealtor,SDrealtor??

[farbet]

Has anyone checked sdlookup.com recently? The amount of houses betweem 800K and 1million plus has balooned within the past week or so.Zip 92009,92011,92024. So who will buy these houses? Something got to give!! Any thoughts sdrealtor,SDrealtor??

[SD Realtor]

Hi Farbet –

No I have not really looked on sdlookup.com… As sdr said in last weeks short sale post there are two more periods in June that seasonally produce more active listings. It seems quite apparent that we will not reach 2006 levels of active listings. So the jump in actives that you are seeing is not surprising at all.

As for who will buy these homes, I guess we will see. It is always astounding to me how much money is parked out on the sidelines. I looked at a home in Old Scripps this weekend on Oakbend for 799k. Nothing special, but the neighborhood is okay and it is where I want to buy. They had two offers and the home hasn’t been on the market for 5 days yet!! So much for my lowball strategy on that home… So… what can I tell ya. That is but a single datapoint… Funny though because Stonebridge which is a new development in the back of Scripps with million dollar homes built very recently has suffered some serious depreciation as well as NODs…

Getting back to your point though, I am sure some of the million dollar places will sell and plenty of them will not… Depends on where they are, what they are… etc…Again though, the rise in active listings doesn’t surprise me at all.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Farbet –

No I have not really looked on sdlookup.com… As sdr said in last weeks short sale post there are two more periods in June that seasonally produce more active listings. It seems quite apparent that we will not reach 2006 levels of active listings. So the jump in actives that you are seeing is not surprising at all.

As for who will buy these homes, I guess we will see. It is always astounding to me how much money is parked out on the sidelines. I looked at a home in Old Scripps this weekend on Oakbend for 799k. Nothing special, but the neighborhood is okay and it is where I want to buy. They had two offers and the home hasn’t been on the market for 5 days yet!! So much for my lowball strategy on that home… So… what can I tell ya. That is but a single datapoint… Funny though because Stonebridge which is a new development in the back of Scripps with million dollar homes built very recently has suffered some serious depreciation as well as NODs…

Getting back to your point though, I am sure some of the million dollar places will sell and plenty of them will not… Depends on where they are, what they are… etc…Again though, the rise in active listings doesn’t surprise me at all.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Too busy on vacation but here is some quick and dirty. In the last 7 days in 92009,92011 and 92024 there have been 33 new listings and 12 back on market (fell out of escrow or put back on market after temporarily taking off). Thats 45 homes added to inventory. On the minus side 24 went into escrow, 12 expired,5 withdrawn and 3 cancelled, Thats 44 homes taken out of the inventory. In the last week active inventory went up by 1 houses!

Between 800K and $1M there were 10 new and 2 back on. There 7 pendings, 4 expireds and 2 withdrawn. Net is minus 1 house.

[sdrealtor]

Too busy on vacation but here is some quick and dirty. In the last 7 days in 92009,92011 and 92024 there have been 33 new listings and 12 back on market (fell out of escrow or put back on market after temporarily taking off). Thats 45 homes added to inventory. On the minus side 24 went into escrow, 12 expired,5 withdrawn and 3 cancelled, Thats 44 homes taken out of the inventory. In the last week active inventory went up by 1 houses!

Between 800K and $1M there were 10 new and 2 back on. There 7 pendings, 4 expireds and 2 withdrawn. Net is minus 1 house.

[GoUSC]

I disagree with calling homes in Escrow as out of the market nor do I agree with pendings. A house is not out of the market until it closes. The 12 expired might be looking at other brokers to relist or just pulling the DOM scheme that is so popular.

Point of my comments are that looking at a micro environment like three zip codes doesn’t really capture what is going on.

[GoUSC]

I disagree with calling homes in Escrow as out of the market nor do I agree with pendings. A house is not out of the market until it closes. The 12 expired might be looking at other brokers to relist or just pulling the DOM scheme that is so popular.

Point of my comments are that looking at a micro environment like three zip codes doesn’t really capture what is going on.

[SD Realtor]

I think it is funny how everyone calls it the “DOM scheme”…

Pretty much every client I have wants a shorter contract period because they do not want to be locked into a long listing agreement contract. They want the freedom to move to another broker if they choose to. I let my clients choose the length of the contract.

So I guess I am a just playing the system by catering to what they want.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I think it is funny how everyone calls it the “DOM scheme”…

Pretty much every client I have wants a shorter contract period because they do not want to be locked into a long listing agreement contract. They want the freedom to move to another broker if they choose to. I let my clients choose the length of the contract.

So I guess I am a just playing the system by catering to what they want.

SD Realtor

[GoUSC]

There are legitimate reasons for shorter contracts. However…if a house has been forsale for 5 months and has been through 8 different brokers it should have a DOM of 5 months. A seller should not be able to pull a listing for 4 days from the MLS and throw it back up on the market and have the DOM reset. And a DOM shouldn’t reset because they have changed brokers. You know exactly what I was referring to.

[GoUSC]

There are legitimate reasons for shorter contracts. However…if a house has been forsale for 5 months and has been through 8 different brokers it should have a DOM of 5 months. A seller should not be able to pull a listing for 4 days from the MLS and throw it back up on the market and have the DOM reset. And a DOM shouldn’t reset because they have changed brokers. You know exactly what I was referring to.

[Author]

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