just to add two more (unsolicted) cents on that Quintessa area. . . .
Through my mother in law realtor, I have been able to review some pretty detailed MLS info on that area, including loan balances.
Nearly everyone- like 90%- of the owners have loans around $1m. So I think that area will be ground-zero for seeing the impact of pay-option ARMs. Certainly more than a few buyers don’t have the $250,000-$300,000 income needed to make a fully amortizing payment on $1m loan, plus taxes and hoa, and refinancing won’t be possible if there are some low comps and tighter standards.
So I think the real price drops in that area will be in about 3-4 years, when the full payments kick in on the loans.
It will be interesting to see how the community reacts when essentially everyone is upside down on their house.
just to add two more (unsolicted) cents on that Quintessa area. . . .
Through my mother in law realtor, I have been able to review some pretty detailed MLS info on that area, including loan balances.
Nearly everyone- like 90%- of the owners have loans around $1m. So I think that area will be ground-zero for seeing the impact of pay-option ARMs. Certainly more than a few buyers don’t have the $250,000-$300,000 income needed to make a fully amortizing payment on $1m loan, plus taxes and hoa, and refinancing won’t be possible if there are some low comps and tighter standards.
So I think the real price drops in that area will be in about 3-4 years, when the full payments kick in on the loans.
It will be interesting to see how the community reacts when essentially everyone is upside down on their house.
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