Direction was “ok” timing was way the hell off. What you make of this?
Posted by Goldseek May 2003
“Here is my play-by-play time line of how I envision the real estate crash going down:
1. The first signs of trouble will occur in September-October of this year as the dominant interim cycle is falling hard along with equities. There will be a sudden and conspicuous slow-down in new housing starts and overall home sales. The financial press will start calling into question the legitimacy of the real estate boom and will lightly begin asking the question “where have all the buyers gone?”
2. After a scary dip in the autumn season, stock prices (along with real estate) will launch a mild recovery at year’s end and accelerate entering the first quarter of 2004. Many will embrace the erroneous belief that we have finally ended the 4-year-old bear market, especially if the 2002-2003 lows have not been violated, and that stocks and real estate are ripe for new buying. This will be the set-up for the ultimate “sucker’s rally.” Why? Because it is precisely in the first three months of 2004 that the Master Cycle will be peaking. This will set-up the overall decline and major crash to be experienced in the remaining nine months of 2004, especially in the fourth quarter. Real estate will join stocks to the downside as an investor’s panic hits Wall Street, followed by steady liquidation”.
Only his timing was off a “bit.” The effect on the market has already happend to a degree. All these things he mentions are just beginning and will coalesce in the coming 16 months.
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