Pacific Beach market question

[jpinpb]

I am once again amazed and confused. Probably more of another rant, but I sure could use an explanation.

I was watching this place for sale in P.B. MLS# 086002359 1319 Emerald St. I’ve seen it on and off the market for quite a while, like 2 years. But apparently, it got sold 06/11/2007 for $625,000.

Very shortly thereafter, it was put on the market again, then removed, then relisted 01/09/2008. Beds/Baths: 3 / 2, Square Feet: 1,286, Lot Size: 6,300 sf. Was EMPTY. I doubt it was lived in for the 2 years it was off and on the market. They redid the inside probably 2 years ago w/granite, etc, fixed the front and back yards. It was pretty nice. But the last time it listed SWEOB $699,000-$729,000.

With all the defaults and foreclosures and tightening of credit, I thought unlikely it would sell for that. Probably less and not for a while. It went pending and I was watching to see if it would be BOM b/c of tightening of credit standards and people not qualifying.

Well, it sold for 710k. I’m a little surprised, frankly. It’s on Craigslist for rent for 3k. I just don’t understand. Must have been purchased by an investor, but even if the person gets 3k a month for the place, WTF. How much is he putting down or putting out every month? I mean, ROI makes no sense here.

Everything I read seems so ominous for real estate, yet when I see a sale like this, I really think I’m losing my mind and I’m missing something here. I realize it’s the coast and I don’t think it’s immune, but that it will take a while for prices to come down some. But when I see someone flipping still like this, then I just can’t get my mind around it.

[Doofrat]

It makes total sense and here’s why:

Take $710,000 minus $80,000 down payment that you got from a home equity loan. You now have $630,000 financed.

Take $630,000 and multiply it by 5% interest which equals $31,500. This is the interest you pay. Add a little more, (lets say $4000 for principal) which gives you a total payment each year of $35,500.

Divide $35,500 by 12 and it equals a monthly payment of $2958.00.

They are asking $3000 for rent. It just about evens out.

Don’t like my math? Neither do I, but this is the way people think.

[jpinpb]

Ok. I admit. Math is not my forte. This must be some new math or I’m just not using correct numbers. Even if I use your numbers and really give the benefit of doubt and he/she put 80k down that wasn’t a HELOC (b/c then they’ll have that additional monthly payment of what? 500?)

630k at a rate of 6% – Can you get a loan w/5%?

anyway 630k @ 6% = 3,777 + prop. tax of 525 + insurance? 100? = $4,402.

Now, I am not sure of how much they can write off on taxes. That’s another weakness of mine. Is he/she writing off 1400+ a month?

Say they are. So now they’re breaking even. What if something breaks in the house? How long before that 80k makes him/her money? How long are they holding on to this “investment” before they can sell it and make money? Is the rental market going to be the next bubble and next year they’re renting it for 5k?

Maybe I should find a realtor cheerleading board so I can understand. Everything I’m reading is saying market will go down in 2008, best optimistic is flat in 2009 and maybe pick up in 2010. The dire ones are saying it will suck until 2011 and then pick up.

Who to believe?

[boomer]

Don’t forget $700 per month in property taxes. That house is crap. I think it was a couple of agents that bought it last June. They have to be thrilled they dumped it. It was an out of town agent that sold it, probably an out of town buyer as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are planning to scrape it and build. There is a giant house next door.

[jpinpb]

I thought the prop tax was 525. I think it’s 591. I already admit that my math sucks.

From what I understand, this guy that owns some surf shop in OC bought it last year and just sold (flipped) it.
I don’t know how accurate the info I have is. I’m just surprised it sold for 710k. It’s not zoned for multi, unless they change zoning, so unlikely a developer is going to mow it down and throw up condos for 600k a piece.

Maybe I’m just underestimating the coastal market. It must be immune and prices will just keep going up there.

[jpinpb]

I thought the prop tax was 525. I think it’s 591. I already admit that my math sucks.

From what I understand, this guy that owns some surf shop in OC bought it last year and just sold (flipped) it.
I don’t know how accurate the info I have is. I’m just surprised it sold for 710k. It’s not zoned for multi, unless they change zoning, so unlikely a developer is going to mow it down and throw up condos for 600k a piece.

Maybe I’m just underestimating the coastal market. It must be immune and prices will just keep going up there.

[jpinpb]

I thought the prop tax was 525. I think it’s 591. I already admit that my math sucks.

From what I understand, this guy that owns some surf shop in OC bought it last year and just sold (flipped) it.
I don’t know how accurate the info I have is. I’m just surprised it sold for 710k. It’s not zoned for multi, unless they change zoning, so unlikely a developer is going to mow it down and throw up condos for 600k a piece.

Maybe I’m just underestimating the coastal market. It must be immune and prices will just keep going up there.

[jpinpb]

I thought the prop tax was 525. I think it’s 591. I already admit that my math sucks.

From what I understand, this guy that owns some surf shop in OC bought it last year and just sold (flipped) it.
I don’t know how accurate the info I have is. I’m just surprised it sold for 710k. It’s not zoned for multi, unless they change zoning, so unlikely a developer is going to mow it down and throw up condos for 600k a piece.

Maybe I’m just underestimating the coastal market. It must be immune and prices will just keep going up there.

[jpinpb]

I thought the prop tax was 525. I think it’s 591. I already admit that my math sucks.

From what I understand, this guy that owns some surf shop in OC bought it last year and just sold (flipped) it.
I don’t know how accurate the info I have is. I’m just surprised it sold for 710k. It’s not zoned for multi, unless they change zoning, so unlikely a developer is going to mow it down and throw up condos for 600k a piece.

Maybe I’m just underestimating the coastal market. It must be immune and prices will just keep going up there.

[boomer]

Don’t forget $700 per month in property taxes. That house is crap. I think it was a couple of agents that bought it last June. They have to be thrilled they dumped it. It was an out of town agent that sold it, probably an out of town buyer as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are planning to scrape it and build. There is a giant house next door.

[boomer]

Don’t forget $700 per month in property taxes. That house is crap. I think it was a couple of agents that bought it last June. They have to be thrilled they dumped it. It was an out of town agent that sold it, probably an out of town buyer as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are planning to scrape it and build. There is a giant house next door.

[boomer]

Don’t forget $700 per month in property taxes. That house is crap. I think it was a couple of agents that bought it last June. They have to be thrilled they dumped it. It was an out of town agent that sold it, probably an out of town buyer as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are planning to scrape it and build. There is a giant house next door.

[boomer]

Don’t forget $700 per month in property taxes. That house is crap. I think it was a couple of agents that bought it last June. They have to be thrilled they dumped it. It was an out of town agent that sold it, probably an out of town buyer as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are planning to scrape it and build. There is a giant house next door.

[jpinpb]

Ok. I admit. Math is not my forte. This must be some new math or I’m just not using correct numbers. Even if I use your numbers and really give the benefit of doubt and he/she put 80k down that wasn’t a HELOC (b/c then they’ll have that additional monthly payment of what? 500?)

630k at a rate of 6% – Can you get a loan w/5%?

anyway 630k @ 6% = 3,777 + prop. tax of 525 + insurance? 100? = $4,402.

Now, I am not sure of how much they can write off on taxes. That’s another weakness of mine. Is he/she writing off 1400+ a month?

Say they are. So now they’re breaking even. What if something breaks in the house? How long before that 80k makes him/her money? How long are they holding on to this “investment” before they can sell it and make money? Is the rental market going to be the next bubble and next year they’re renting it for 5k?

Maybe I should find a realtor cheerleading board so I can understand. Everything I’m reading is saying market will go down in 2008, best optimistic is flat in 2009 and maybe pick up in 2010. The dire ones are saying it will suck until 2011 and then pick up.

Who to believe?

[jpinpb]

Ok. I admit. Math is not my forte. This must be some new math or I’m just not using correct numbers. Even if I use your numbers and really give the benefit of doubt and he/she put 80k down that wasn’t a HELOC (b/c then they’ll have that additional monthly payment of what? 500?)

630k at a rate of 6% – Can you get a loan w/5%?

anyway 630k @ 6% = 3,777 + prop. tax of 525 + insurance? 100? = $4,402.

Now, I am not sure of how much they can write off on taxes. That’s another weakness of mine. Is he/she writing off 1400+ a month?

Say they are. So now they’re breaking even. What if something breaks in the house? How long before that 80k makes him/her money? How long are they holding on to this “investment” before they can sell it and make money? Is the rental market going to be the next bubble and next year they’re renting it for 5k?

Maybe I should find a realtor cheerleading board so I can understand. Everything I’m reading is saying market will go down in 2008, best optimistic is flat in 2009 and maybe pick up in 2010. The dire ones are saying it will suck until 2011 and then pick up.

Who to believe?

[jpinpb]

Ok. I admit. Math is not my forte. This must be some new math or I’m just not using correct numbers. Even if I use your numbers and really give the benefit of doubt and he/she put 80k down that wasn’t a HELOC (b/c then they’ll have that additional monthly payment of what? 500?)

630k at a rate of 6% – Can you get a loan w/5%?

anyway 630k @ 6% = 3,777 + prop. tax of 525 + insurance? 100? = $4,402.

Now, I am not sure of how much they can write off on taxes. That’s another weakness of mine. Is he/she writing off 1400+ a month?

Say they are. So now they’re breaking even. What if something breaks in the house? How long before that 80k makes him/her money? How long are they holding on to this “investment” before they can sell it and make money? Is the rental market going to be the next bubble and next year they’re renting it for 5k?

Maybe I should find a realtor cheerleading board so I can understand. Everything I’m reading is saying market will go down in 2008, best optimistic is flat in 2009 and maybe pick up in 2010. The dire ones are saying it will suck until 2011 and then pick up.

Who to believe?

[jpinpb]

Ok. I admit. Math is not my forte. This must be some new math or I’m just not using correct numbers. Even if I use your numbers and really give the benefit of doubt and he/she put 80k down that wasn’t a HELOC (b/c then they’ll have that additional monthly payment of what? 500?)

630k at a rate of 6% – Can you get a loan w/5%?

anyway 630k @ 6% = 3,777 + prop. tax of 525 + insurance? 100? = $4,402.

Now, I am not sure of how much they can write off on taxes. That’s another weakness of mine. Is he/she writing off 1400+ a month?

Say they are. So now they’re breaking even. What if something breaks in the house? How long before that 80k makes him/her money? How long are they holding on to this “investment” before they can sell it and make money? Is the rental market going to be the next bubble and next year they’re renting it for 5k?

Maybe I should find a realtor cheerleading board so I can understand. Everything I’m reading is saying market will go down in 2008, best optimistic is flat in 2009 and maybe pick up in 2010. The dire ones are saying it will suck until 2011 and then pick up.

Who to believe?

[Doofrat]

Oh man, come on, don’t burst my bubble, I’m sure if there are any other expenses outside of my calculations like insurance or stuff, I can just write it off or something.

Seriously, I know people who have done this, so it must be pretty common. Without being too specific, they buy a place without really knowing the true cost or the future expenses and risks and end up with an “investment” that would require all the stars to line up in perfect unison to possibly break even. Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.

I know my math makes no sense above, I was just demonstrating the way people actually figure these things out.

[boomer]

I stand corrected jpinpb, it was some surfer dude that bought it. I think it is great that he was able to make some $ with this deal. Although I doubt that he made a ton after holding/closing costs.

I agree you probably can’t build condo’s on this lot, although some areas allow 2 units on a lot like this. But they could build a giant house like the one next door.

Property taxes = purchase price * %1.25?

[boomer]

I stand corrected jpinpb, it was some surfer dude that bought it. I think it is great that he was able to make some $ with this deal. Although I doubt that he made a ton after holding/closing costs.

I agree you probably can’t build condo’s on this lot, although some areas allow 2 units on a lot like this. But they could build a giant house like the one next door.

Property taxes = purchase price * %1.25?

[boomer]

I stand corrected jpinpb, it was some surfer dude that bought it. I think it is great that he was able to make some $ with this deal. Although I doubt that he made a ton after holding/closing costs.

I agree you probably can’t build condo’s on this lot, although some areas allow 2 units on a lot like this. But they could build a giant house like the one next door.

Property taxes = purchase price * %1.25?

[boomer]

I stand corrected jpinpb, it was some surfer dude that bought it. I think it is great that he was able to make some $ with this deal. Although I doubt that he made a ton after holding/closing costs.

I agree you probably can’t build condo’s on this lot, although some areas allow 2 units on a lot like this. But they could build a giant house like the one next door.

Property taxes = purchase price * %1.25?

[boomer]

I stand corrected jpinpb, it was some surfer dude that bought it. I think it is great that he was able to make some $ with this deal. Although I doubt that he made a ton after holding/closing costs.

I agree you probably can’t build condo’s on this lot, although some areas allow 2 units on a lot like this. But they could build a giant house like the one next door.

Property taxes = purchase price * %1.25?

[jpinpb]

doofrat – you say, “Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.”

So have they been living under a rock and haven’t heard what’s going on w/defauls, foreclosures, tightening of credit? Or am I the one in denial and prices are going to keep going up?

[Doofrat]

JP,

A lot of people think the housing market has flattened out. If it was true that it has flattened out (I don’t think we’re close to the bottom for a few years at least), then it’d be a good time to buy since it can only go up. People hear that prices have dropped and that the market has flattened out and they think they can get a good deal.

They haven’t really heard about the number of foreclosures, they just heard a blurb about it on the news, but they haven’t looked at Realtytrac and seen the insane number of foreclosures mapped out.
They don’t have any idea that the tightening of credit means fewer sales and lower home prices.
They haven’t seen the Credit Suisse ARM reset schedule.
They haven’t read the Professor’s Bubble Primer.

They probably just talked to a Realtor who told them that prices have flattened out and that it’s a good time to buy (which happened to my wife yesterday in talking to a Realtor friend).

[jpinpb]

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 13, 2008 – 6:52pm.

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

jpi, you need to get off the emotional rollercoaster. Take a deep breath; you’ve seen a couple of houses sell at inflated prices, and you’re coming unglued. There will always be people (that means buyers) who do things that veer from the expected, things that don’t seem to make sense. That doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached in Pacific Beach. Do some research and you’ll probably feel a lot better.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 13, 2008 – 6:52pm.

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

jpi, you need to get off the emotional rollercoaster. Take a deep breath; you’ve seen a couple of houses sell at inflated prices, and you’re coming unglued. There will always be people (that means buyers) who do things that veer from the expected, things that don’t seem to make sense. That doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached in Pacific Beach. Do some research and you’ll probably feel a lot better.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 13, 2008 – 6:52pm.

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

jpi, you need to get off the emotional rollercoaster. Take a deep breath; you’ve seen a couple of houses sell at inflated prices, and you’re coming unglued. There will always be people (that means buyers) who do things that veer from the expected, things that don’t seem to make sense. That doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached in Pacific Beach. Do some research and you’ll probably feel a lot better.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 13, 2008 – 6:52pm.

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

jpi, you need to get off the emotional rollercoaster. Take a deep breath; you’ve seen a couple of houses sell at inflated prices, and you’re coming unglued. There will always be people (that means buyers) who do things that veer from the expected, things that don’t seem to make sense. That doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached in Pacific Beach. Do some research and you’ll probably feel a lot better.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 13, 2008 – 6:52pm.

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

jpi, you need to get off the emotional rollercoaster. Take a deep breath; you’ve seen a couple of houses sell at inflated prices, and you’re coming unglued. There will always be people (that means buyers) who do things that veer from the expected, things that don’t seem to make sense. That doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached in Pacific Beach. Do some research and you’ll probably feel a lot better.

[jpinpb]

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

[jpinpb]

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

[jpinpb]

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

[jpinpb]

After reading “The housing bubble is over” thread, I’m more confused than ever and even depressed. I was thinking the bubble popped and the gov. trying to fill it w/air won’t work if there’s a hole. But some of what Diego was saying was making sense. Maybe the guy who bought Emerald was talking to Diego and that’s why it made sense to him.

[Doofrat]

JP,

A lot of people think the housing market has flattened out. If it was true that it has flattened out (I don’t think we’re close to the bottom for a few years at least), then it’d be a good time to buy since it can only go up. People hear that prices have dropped and that the market has flattened out and they think they can get a good deal.

They haven’t really heard about the number of foreclosures, they just heard a blurb about it on the news, but they haven’t looked at Realtytrac and seen the insane number of foreclosures mapped out.
They don’t have any idea that the tightening of credit means fewer sales and lower home prices.
They haven’t seen the Credit Suisse ARM reset schedule.
They haven’t read the Professor’s Bubble Primer.

They probably just talked to a Realtor who told them that prices have flattened out and that it’s a good time to buy (which happened to my wife yesterday in talking to a Realtor friend).

[Doofrat]

JP,

A lot of people think the housing market has flattened out. If it was true that it has flattened out (I don’t think we’re close to the bottom for a few years at least), then it’d be a good time to buy since it can only go up. People hear that prices have dropped and that the market has flattened out and they think they can get a good deal.

They haven’t really heard about the number of foreclosures, they just heard a blurb about it on the news, but they haven’t looked at Realtytrac and seen the insane number of foreclosures mapped out.
They don’t have any idea that the tightening of credit means fewer sales and lower home prices.
They haven’t seen the Credit Suisse ARM reset schedule.
They haven’t read the Professor’s Bubble Primer.

They probably just talked to a Realtor who told them that prices have flattened out and that it’s a good time to buy (which happened to my wife yesterday in talking to a Realtor friend).

[Doofrat]

JP,

A lot of people think the housing market has flattened out. If it was true that it has flattened out (I don’t think we’re close to the bottom for a few years at least), then it’d be a good time to buy since it can only go up. People hear that prices have dropped and that the market has flattened out and they think they can get a good deal.

They haven’t really heard about the number of foreclosures, they just heard a blurb about it on the news, but they haven’t looked at Realtytrac and seen the insane number of foreclosures mapped out.
They don’t have any idea that the tightening of credit means fewer sales and lower home prices.
They haven’t seen the Credit Suisse ARM reset schedule.
They haven’t read the Professor’s Bubble Primer.

They probably just talked to a Realtor who told them that prices have flattened out and that it’s a good time to buy (which happened to my wife yesterday in talking to a Realtor friend).

[Doofrat]

JP,

A lot of people think the housing market has flattened out. If it was true that it has flattened out (I don’t think we’re close to the bottom for a few years at least), then it’d be a good time to buy since it can only go up. People hear that prices have dropped and that the market has flattened out and they think they can get a good deal.

They haven’t really heard about the number of foreclosures, they just heard a blurb about it on the news, but they haven’t looked at Realtytrac and seen the insane number of foreclosures mapped out.
They don’t have any idea that the tightening of credit means fewer sales and lower home prices.
They haven’t seen the Credit Suisse ARM reset schedule.
They haven’t read the Professor’s Bubble Primer.

They probably just talked to a Realtor who told them that prices have flattened out and that it’s a good time to buy (which happened to my wife yesterday in talking to a Realtor friend).

[jpinpb]

doofrat – you say, “Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.”

So have they been living under a rock and haven’t heard what’s going on w/defauls, foreclosures, tightening of credit? Or am I the one in denial and prices are going to keep going up?

[jpinpb]

doofrat – you say, “Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.”

So have they been living under a rock and haven’t heard what’s going on w/defauls, foreclosures, tightening of credit? Or am I the one in denial and prices are going to keep going up?

[jpinpb]

doofrat – you say, “Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.”

So have they been living under a rock and haven’t heard what’s going on w/defauls, foreclosures, tightening of credit? Or am I the one in denial and prices are going to keep going up?

[jpinpb]

doofrat – you say, “Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.”

So have they been living under a rock and haven’t heard what’s going on w/defauls, foreclosures, tightening of credit? Or am I the one in denial and prices are going to keep going up?

[Doofrat]

Oh man, come on, don’t burst my bubble, I’m sure if there are any other expenses outside of my calculations like insurance or stuff, I can just write it off or something.

Seriously, I know people who have done this, so it must be pretty common. Without being too specific, they buy a place without really knowing the true cost or the future expenses and risks and end up with an “investment” that would require all the stars to line up in perfect unison to possibly break even. Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.

I know my math makes no sense above, I was just demonstrating the way people actually figure these things out.

[Doofrat]

Oh man, come on, don’t burst my bubble, I’m sure if there are any other expenses outside of my calculations like insurance or stuff, I can just write it off or something.

Seriously, I know people who have done this, so it must be pretty common. Without being too specific, they buy a place without really knowing the true cost or the future expenses and risks and end up with an “investment” that would require all the stars to line up in perfect unison to possibly break even. Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.

I know my math makes no sense above, I was just demonstrating the way people actually figure these things out.

[Doofrat]

Oh man, come on, don’t burst my bubble, I’m sure if there are any other expenses outside of my calculations like insurance or stuff, I can just write it off or something.

Seriously, I know people who have done this, so it must be pretty common. Without being too specific, they buy a place without really knowing the true cost or the future expenses and risks and end up with an “investment” that would require all the stars to line up in perfect unison to possibly break even. Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.

I know my math makes no sense above, I was just demonstrating the way people actually figure these things out.

[Doofrat]

Oh man, come on, don’t burst my bubble, I’m sure if there are any other expenses outside of my calculations like insurance or stuff, I can just write it off or something.

Seriously, I know people who have done this, so it must be pretty common. Without being too specific, they buy a place without really knowing the true cost or the future expenses and risks and end up with an “investment” that would require all the stars to line up in perfect unison to possibly break even. Why would they do this? Because they expect future price gains.

I know my math makes no sense above, I was just demonstrating the way people actually figure these things out.

[cantab]

In the 90s, houses in PB typically rented for 0.5% per month of the purchase price. So $3000/mo rent implies $600K price by that rule of thumb. Of course, even in the mid 90s, renting was mostly cheaper than buying.

That said, I don’t believe you can get $3000 per month in PB for a 1286 sq ft house.

[jpinpb]

I saw a place on Missouri, just as nice, that was renting for 2k. Hard to imagine someone getting 3. But I wouldn’t have thought this place would sell for 710k. So I guess anything is possible.

[ibjames]

I also wouldn’t base my judgement on one place. This could be one instance out of a 100 that actually had the stars line up and it sell at a high price.

You live in PB, drive around.. for sale signs everywhere.

That is not something that makes high prices sustainable. A lot of competition out there. PB’s rep hasn’t gotten any better either.

It is a place close to the ocean though, so the real dramtic declines I don’t think are happening there. It’s going to take some time for the wave of crap to fill it’s way down the streets.

Look at Mira Mesa, and some of the outskirts. For a while it seemed like San Diego wasn’t going to really decline much, only Temecula. We are seeing declines there now, it’s starting to make it’s way to other neighborhoods too. Don’t get distracted

[jpinpb]

Gosh, I wish I could say it was just this one place. I recently saw another POS on Chalcedony and one on Jewell. Both went pending. They were in the mid 600k range, thereabouts. Really old places that needed major upgrading. At least Emerald was upgraded. When I see these places sell, then I start to believe PB is immune, w/its bad rep and all.

[djc]

http://www.trulia.com/property/1051752031-1244-Thomas-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92109

nice 3/2 in PB. says house, not condo. 5 blks from beach, %545. Newer (for PB) 25 yr old house.

[jpinpb]

djc – Yeah. That was a condo. HOAs are 150k. Not even a garage.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086013784-1244_Thomas_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92109

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

[Anonymous]

Yes prices will come down in PB. No place is immune, stop being an idiot with that type of irrational thinking. PB prices are already at 2004 levels (or lower) if you did any research you would know that. Look at sales prices, not asking prices. Look at PB sales prices in 1996 and you’ll see the effects of housing crash on PB.

[Anonymous]

The problem in PB that I am seeing is that sellers are either ignorant or in denial about the reality of the ongoing crash (price correction). Why is this? I think it can be partly explained by the fact that there is little if any new development in these areas, and most sellers have lived in their homes for many years and are not in desparation sale situation.

An example, just talked to a neighbor in my complex in PB and found out they are moving and about to list the property. They have owned since the complex opened in the 80s so they little or no debt on the place. I asked them what they plan to list it at and the price range they want is higher than any of the comps for this complex, even than the units that sold in 2005, at the market peak.

I politely informed them that this would be challenging given the market correction, but they said they won’t settle for less as they have completely re-modeled the place. Clearly they have no chance to get anywhere near their asking price. Anyone who reads the paper can see that median prices are down 20% since the peak. So how can people rationalize asking higher than peak prices given that the market has dropped 20% since then?

Ignorance or denial. These owners that aren’t in a desparation sale situation continue to be stubborn trying to hold on to the past (everyone seller wants it to be 2005 again). That is why we see such high asking prices in PB. But, it doesn’t change the reality that real values are dropping everyday and sales prices are reflecting that.

[jpinpb]

marion – Sometimes I’m rational and calm about the market and take it in stride. But I admit I have my moments when I see some sales that I wouldn’t expect to happen, I get emotional. Can’t let it get the best of me. Just throws me for a loop.

deadzone – I’ve been trying to learn by reading this board and other links on here. I’ve been watching the market for several years. Although there’s not major development in PB like, say, downtown or 4$ or Chula Vista, there are a lot of Amstrong townhomes and alike thrown up. The little shacks get bought up for 800k, pushing the price up for regular homes. Then the guy mows the shack down and throws 4 townhomes up in its place for 650-700k a piece.

Also, there’s been a lot of apartment/condo conversions as well. You told me about the story of your neighbor and you seem convinced it won’t sell at the high price they are asking. What if it did? That’s the kind of crazy sales I’m seeing in PB.
Makes me question whether I’m the one in denial. I see places on the market a long time. I see some reductions, but ever so slight. I don’t see it to 2004 levels yet on houses, or even townhomes, at least not in PB.

But I appreciate everyone’s feedback. I know it will take longer for the coast. Just have to be more patient and calm. Thanks all for letting me go on about this and thanks for your patience w/my anxieties.

[Anonymous]

Patience jg. I’ve sorted through lots of listings in PB, and have few yet to see a sale that closed after August 07 (when the credit markets officially died) that sold for higher than an equivalent comp in 2005 or 2006.

The seeminly irrational sale that is the subject of this thread is truly an exception. While 2 or 3 years ago we were seeing irrational sales prices all the time.

[Anonymous]

Prices are still high in PB… just check the most recent DQ chart for Feb. No 20% drop in PB yet or even close. I think that as long as houses keep selling high there, people will stay in denial, because so far, it’s just not hitting PB. Several went pending this week at high prices. Condos are down already, so will it hit SFHs? Maybe, but for now, they keep selling, even, as JP noted, really awful tear down type places.

[djc]

There is a lot of old money in PB. The market changes won’t affect many people, short of the recent handful of condo conversions and the like.

One won’t see distress sales there like there is in 4$, CV, SEH, etc. The area is obviously very popular with the college student demographic, so it is attractive for investment rentals. There are very few family types in the area for obvious reasons.

No matter what happens with the bars, beach drunks, and bums, it still is oceanfront and a historic part of SD.

[jpinpb]

djc – PB is not LJ. LJ is sterile. No homeless. No college kids partying and trashing the place. LJ is a status city. PB does have older people living there. These are some of the old houses being sold that have not been upgraded for 50 years. Obviously family selling them.

Some of these houses have been purchased by investors. How do you suppose the investors purchased them? Would they not do the 5yr I/0 ARMs? Won’t those be resetting? I’m more amazed that higher priced places are still selling now.

I would think PB would eventually see price declines. PB is not in a vacuum. It is not a seperate economy from the US or the world. How can it not be affected evenutally? I’ve seen prices of median homes in PB more than double from 2000 to 2008. Is that normal appreciation? While I don’t expect to see a 50% or 40% drop, I was still thinking there will be price declines.

I also thought that the weak fall first. Condos are declining. Won’t they be a drag on the SFH later?

And I understand that PB is attractive for investment rentals, but wouldn’t the numbers have to add up and make sense as a rental, if not a profitable rental, at least breaking even? Some of these places seem to be taking a loss. That’s why I was perplexed by the high-priced sales.

[Anonymous]

I moved to PB in 96, and at that time realtors couldn’t give away property, especially condos. I bought a 2/2 w/ garage for 120K. The area was clearly pummelled by the last real estate recession, it will be again this time.

[jpinpb]

Thanks deadzone. That is encouraging. I’ve waited this long. I don’t want to settle for another area yet, just b/c it’s a better deal, though it gets tempting.

[jpinpb]

Thanks deadzone. That is encouraging. I’ve waited this long. I don’t want to settle for another area yet, just b/c it’s a better deal, though it gets tempting.

[jpinpb]

Thanks deadzone. That is encouraging. I’ve waited this long. I don’t want to settle for another area yet, just b/c it’s a better deal, though it gets tempting.

[jpinpb]

Thanks deadzone. That is encouraging. I’ve waited this long. I don’t want to settle for another area yet, just b/c it’s a better deal, though it gets tempting.

[jpinpb]

Thanks deadzone. That is encouraging. I’ve waited this long. I don’t want to settle for another area yet, just b/c it’s a better deal, though it gets tempting.

[Anonymous]

I moved to PB in 96, and at that time realtors couldn’t give away property, especially condos. I bought a 2/2 w/ garage for 120K. The area was clearly pummelled by the last real estate recession, it will be again this time.

[Anonymous]

I moved to PB in 96, and at that time realtors couldn’t give away property, especially condos. I bought a 2/2 w/ garage for 120K. The area was clearly pummelled by the last real estate recession, it will be again this time.

[Anonymous]

I moved to PB in 96, and at that time realtors couldn’t give away property, especially condos. I bought a 2/2 w/ garage for 120K. The area was clearly pummelled by the last real estate recession, it will be again this time.

[Anonymous]

I moved to PB in 96, and at that time realtors couldn’t give away property, especially condos. I bought a 2/2 w/ garage for 120K. The area was clearly pummelled by the last real estate recession, it will be again this time.

[Anonymous]

Just have to mention, there are plenty of homeless in La Jolla… haven’t you seen the latest “bench sitter” issue. Plus, contrary to popular belief, PB has many families. Having a young family myself, I can speak to that.

True, PB is not LJ and never will be… one LJ is probably enough. (LOL)

[Anonymous]

Just have to mention, there are plenty of homeless in La Jolla… haven’t you seen the latest “bench sitter” issue. Plus, contrary to popular belief, PB has many families. Having a young family myself, I can speak to that.

True, PB is not LJ and never will be… one LJ is probably enough. (LOL)

[Anonymous]

Just have to mention, there are plenty of homeless in La Jolla… haven’t you seen the latest “bench sitter” issue. Plus, contrary to popular belief, PB has many families. Having a young family myself, I can speak to that.

True, PB is not LJ and never will be… one LJ is probably enough. (LOL)

[Anonymous]

Just have to mention, there are plenty of homeless in La Jolla… haven’t you seen the latest “bench sitter” issue. Plus, contrary to popular belief, PB has many families. Having a young family myself, I can speak to that.

True, PB is not LJ and never will be… one LJ is probably enough. (LOL)

[Anonymous]

Just have to mention, there are plenty of homeless in La Jolla… haven’t you seen the latest “bench sitter” issue. Plus, contrary to popular belief, PB has many families. Having a young family myself, I can speak to that.

True, PB is not LJ and never will be… one LJ is probably enough. (LOL)

[jpinpb]

djc – PB is not LJ. LJ is sterile. No homeless. No college kids partying and trashing the place. LJ is a status city. PB does have older people living there. These are some of the old houses being sold that have not been upgraded for 50 years. Obviously family selling them.

Some of these houses have been purchased by investors. How do you suppose the investors purchased them? Would they not do the 5yr I/0 ARMs? Won’t those be resetting? I’m more amazed that higher priced places are still selling now.

I would think PB would eventually see price declines. PB is not in a vacuum. It is not a seperate economy from the US or the world. How can it not be affected evenutally? I’ve seen prices of median homes in PB more than double from 2000 to 2008. Is that normal appreciation? While I don’t expect to see a 50% or 40% drop, I was still thinking there will be price declines.

I also thought that the weak fall first. Condos are declining. Won’t they be a drag on the SFH later?

And I understand that PB is attractive for investment rentals, but wouldn’t the numbers have to add up and make sense as a rental, if not a profitable rental, at least breaking even? Some of these places seem to be taking a loss. That’s why I was perplexed by the high-priced sales.

[jpinpb]

djc – PB is not LJ. LJ is sterile. No homeless. No college kids partying and trashing the place. LJ is a status city. PB does have older people living there. These are some of the old houses being sold that have not been upgraded for 50 years. Obviously family selling them.

Some of these houses have been purchased by investors. How do you suppose the investors purchased them? Would they not do the 5yr I/0 ARMs? Won’t those be resetting? I’m more amazed that higher priced places are still selling now.

I would think PB would eventually see price declines. PB is not in a vacuum. It is not a seperate economy from the US or the world. How can it not be affected evenutally? I’ve seen prices of median homes in PB more than double from 2000 to 2008. Is that normal appreciation? While I don’t expect to see a 50% or 40% drop, I was still thinking there will be price declines.

I also thought that the weak fall first. Condos are declining. Won’t they be a drag on the SFH later?

And I understand that PB is attractive for investment rentals, but wouldn’t the numbers have to add up and make sense as a rental, if not a profitable rental, at least breaking even? Some of these places seem to be taking a loss. That’s why I was perplexed by the high-priced sales.

[jpinpb]

djc – PB is not LJ. LJ is sterile. No homeless. No college kids partying and trashing the place. LJ is a status city. PB does have older people living there. These are some of the old houses being sold that have not been upgraded for 50 years. Obviously family selling them.

Some of these houses have been purchased by investors. How do you suppose the investors purchased them? Would they not do the 5yr I/0 ARMs? Won’t those be resetting? I’m more amazed that higher priced places are still selling now.

I would think PB would eventually see price declines. PB is not in a vacuum. It is not a seperate economy from the US or the world. How can it not be affected evenutally? I’ve seen prices of median homes in PB more than double from 2000 to 2008. Is that normal appreciation? While I don’t expect to see a 50% or 40% drop, I was still thinking there will be price declines.

I also thought that the weak fall first. Condos are declining. Won’t they be a drag on the SFH later?

And I understand that PB is attractive for investment rentals, but wouldn’t the numbers have to add up and make sense as a rental, if not a profitable rental, at least breaking even? Some of these places seem to be taking a loss. That’s why I was perplexed by the high-priced sales.

[jpinpb]

djc – PB is not LJ. LJ is sterile. No homeless. No college kids partying and trashing the place. LJ is a status city. PB does have older people living there. These are some of the old houses being sold that have not been upgraded for 50 years. Obviously family selling them.

Some of these houses have been purchased by investors. How do you suppose the investors purchased them? Would they not do the 5yr I/0 ARMs? Won’t those be resetting? I’m more amazed that higher priced places are still selling now.

I would think PB would eventually see price declines. PB is not in a vacuum. It is not a seperate economy from the US or the world. How can it not be affected evenutally? I’ve seen prices of median homes in PB more than double from 2000 to 2008. Is that normal appreciation? While I don’t expect to see a 50% or 40% drop, I was still thinking there will be price declines.

I also thought that the weak fall first. Condos are declining. Won’t they be a drag on the SFH later?

And I understand that PB is attractive for investment rentals, but wouldn’t the numbers have to add up and make sense as a rental, if not a profitable rental, at least breaking even? Some of these places seem to be taking a loss. That’s why I was perplexed by the high-priced sales.

[djc]

There is a lot of old money in PB. The market changes won’t affect many people, short of the recent handful of condo conversions and the like.

One won’t see distress sales there like there is in 4$, CV, SEH, etc. The area is obviously very popular with the college student demographic, so it is attractive for investment rentals. There are very few family types in the area for obvious reasons.

No matter what happens with the bars, beach drunks, and bums, it still is oceanfront and a historic part of SD.

[djc]

There is a lot of old money in PB. The market changes won’t affect many people, short of the recent handful of condo conversions and the like.

One won’t see distress sales there like there is in 4$, CV, SEH, etc. The area is obviously very popular with the college student demographic, so it is attractive for investment rentals. There are very few family types in the area for obvious reasons.

No matter what happens with the bars, beach drunks, and bums, it still is oceanfront and a historic part of SD.

[djc]

There is a lot of old money in PB. The market changes won’t affect many people, short of the recent handful of condo conversions and the like.

One won’t see distress sales there like there is in 4$, CV, SEH, etc. The area is obviously very popular with the college student demographic, so it is attractive for investment rentals. There are very few family types in the area for obvious reasons.

No matter what happens with the bars, beach drunks, and bums, it still is oceanfront and a historic part of SD.

[djc]

There is a lot of old money in PB. The market changes won’t affect many people, short of the recent handful of condo conversions and the like.

One won’t see distress sales there like there is in 4$, CV, SEH, etc. The area is obviously very popular with the college student demographic, so it is attractive for investment rentals. There are very few family types in the area for obvious reasons.

No matter what happens with the bars, beach drunks, and bums, it still is oceanfront and a historic part of SD.

[Anonymous]

Prices are still high in PB… just check the most recent DQ chart for Feb. No 20% drop in PB yet or even close. I think that as long as houses keep selling high there, people will stay in denial, because so far, it’s just not hitting PB. Several went pending this week at high prices. Condos are down already, so will it hit SFHs? Maybe, but for now, they keep selling, even, as JP noted, really awful tear down type places.

[Anonymous]

Prices are still high in PB… just check the most recent DQ chart for Feb. No 20% drop in PB yet or even close. I think that as long as houses keep selling high there, people will stay in denial, because so far, it’s just not hitting PB. Several went pending this week at high prices. Condos are down already, so will it hit SFHs? Maybe, but for now, they keep selling, even, as JP noted, really awful tear down type places.

[Anonymous]

Prices are still high in PB… just check the most recent DQ chart for Feb. No 20% drop in PB yet or even close. I think that as long as houses keep selling high there, people will stay in denial, because so far, it’s just not hitting PB. Several went pending this week at high prices. Condos are down already, so will it hit SFHs? Maybe, but for now, they keep selling, even, as JP noted, really awful tear down type places.

[Anonymous]

Prices are still high in PB… just check the most recent DQ chart for Feb. No 20% drop in PB yet or even close. I think that as long as houses keep selling high there, people will stay in denial, because so far, it’s just not hitting PB. Several went pending this week at high prices. Condos are down already, so will it hit SFHs? Maybe, but for now, they keep selling, even, as JP noted, really awful tear down type places.

[Anonymous]

Patience jg. I’ve sorted through lots of listings in PB, and have few yet to see a sale that closed after August 07 (when the credit markets officially died) that sold for higher than an equivalent comp in 2005 or 2006.

The seeminly irrational sale that is the subject of this thread is truly an exception. While 2 or 3 years ago we were seeing irrational sales prices all the time.

[Anonymous]

Patience jg. I’ve sorted through lots of listings in PB, and have few yet to see a sale that closed after August 07 (when the credit markets officially died) that sold for higher than an equivalent comp in 2005 or 2006.

The seeminly irrational sale that is the subject of this thread is truly an exception. While 2 or 3 years ago we were seeing irrational sales prices all the time.

[Anonymous]

Patience jg. I’ve sorted through lots of listings in PB, and have few yet to see a sale that closed after August 07 (when the credit markets officially died) that sold for higher than an equivalent comp in 2005 or 2006.

The seeminly irrational sale that is the subject of this thread is truly an exception. While 2 or 3 years ago we were seeing irrational sales prices all the time.

[Anonymous]

Patience jg. I’ve sorted through lots of listings in PB, and have few yet to see a sale that closed after August 07 (when the credit markets officially died) that sold for higher than an equivalent comp in 2005 or 2006.

The seeminly irrational sale that is the subject of this thread is truly an exception. While 2 or 3 years ago we were seeing irrational sales prices all the time.

[jpinpb]

marion – Sometimes I’m rational and calm about the market and take it in stride. But I admit I have my moments when I see some sales that I wouldn’t expect to happen, I get emotional. Can’t let it get the best of me. Just throws me for a loop.

deadzone – I’ve been trying to learn by reading this board and other links on here. I’ve been watching the market for several years. Although there’s not major development in PB like, say, downtown or 4$ or Chula Vista, there are a lot of Amstrong townhomes and alike thrown up. The little shacks get bought up for 800k, pushing the price up for regular homes. Then the guy mows the shack down and throws 4 townhomes up in its place for 650-700k a piece.

Also, there’s been a lot of apartment/condo conversions as well. You told me about the story of your neighbor and you seem convinced it won’t sell at the high price they are asking. What if it did? That’s the kind of crazy sales I’m seeing in PB.
Makes me question whether I’m the one in denial. I see places on the market a long time. I see some reductions, but ever so slight. I don’t see it to 2004 levels yet on houses, or even townhomes, at least not in PB.

But I appreciate everyone’s feedback. I know it will take longer for the coast. Just have to be more patient and calm. Thanks all for letting me go on about this and thanks for your patience w/my anxieties.

[jpinpb]

marion – Sometimes I’m rational and calm about the market and take it in stride. But I admit I have my moments when I see some sales that I wouldn’t expect to happen, I get emotional. Can’t let it get the best of me. Just throws me for a loop.

deadzone – I’ve been trying to learn by reading this board and other links on here. I’ve been watching the market for several years. Although there’s not major development in PB like, say, downtown or 4$ or Chula Vista, there are a lot of Amstrong townhomes and alike thrown up. The little shacks get bought up for 800k, pushing the price up for regular homes. Then the guy mows the shack down and throws 4 townhomes up in its place for 650-700k a piece.

Also, there’s been a lot of apartment/condo conversions as well. You told me about the story of your neighbor and you seem convinced it won’t sell at the high price they are asking. What if it did? That’s the kind of crazy sales I’m seeing in PB.
Makes me question whether I’m the one in denial. I see places on the market a long time. I see some reductions, but ever so slight. I don’t see it to 2004 levels yet on houses, or even townhomes, at least not in PB.

But I appreciate everyone’s feedback. I know it will take longer for the coast. Just have to be more patient and calm. Thanks all for letting me go on about this and thanks for your patience w/my anxieties.

[jpinpb]

marion – Sometimes I’m rational and calm about the market and take it in stride. But I admit I have my moments when I see some sales that I wouldn’t expect to happen, I get emotional. Can’t let it get the best of me. Just throws me for a loop.

deadzone – I’ve been trying to learn by reading this board and other links on here. I’ve been watching the market for several years. Although there’s not major development in PB like, say, downtown or 4$ or Chula Vista, there are a lot of Amstrong townhomes and alike thrown up. The little shacks get bought up for 800k, pushing the price up for regular homes. Then the guy mows the shack down and throws 4 townhomes up in its place for 650-700k a piece.

Also, there’s been a lot of apartment/condo conversions as well. You told me about the story of your neighbor and you seem convinced it won’t sell at the high price they are asking. What if it did? That’s the kind of crazy sales I’m seeing in PB.
Makes me question whether I’m the one in denial. I see places on the market a long time. I see some reductions, but ever so slight. I don’t see it to 2004 levels yet on houses, or even townhomes, at least not in PB.

But I appreciate everyone’s feedback. I know it will take longer for the coast. Just have to be more patient and calm. Thanks all for letting me go on about this and thanks for your patience w/my anxieties.

[jpinpb]

marion – Sometimes I’m rational and calm about the market and take it in stride. But I admit I have my moments when I see some sales that I wouldn’t expect to happen, I get emotional. Can’t let it get the best of me. Just throws me for a loop.

deadzone – I’ve been trying to learn by reading this board and other links on here. I’ve been watching the market for several years. Although there’s not major development in PB like, say, downtown or 4$ or Chula Vista, there are a lot of Amstrong townhomes and alike thrown up. The little shacks get bought up for 800k, pushing the price up for regular homes. Then the guy mows the shack down and throws 4 townhomes up in its place for 650-700k a piece.

Also, there’s been a lot of apartment/condo conversions as well. You told me about the story of your neighbor and you seem convinced it won’t sell at the high price they are asking. What if it did? That’s the kind of crazy sales I’m seeing in PB.
Makes me question whether I’m the one in denial. I see places on the market a long time. I see some reductions, but ever so slight. I don’t see it to 2004 levels yet on houses, or even townhomes, at least not in PB.

But I appreciate everyone’s feedback. I know it will take longer for the coast. Just have to be more patient and calm. Thanks all for letting me go on about this and thanks for your patience w/my anxieties.

[Anonymous]

The problem in PB that I am seeing is that sellers are either ignorant or in denial about the reality of the ongoing crash (price correction). Why is this? I think it can be partly explained by the fact that there is little if any new development in these areas, and most sellers have lived in their homes for many years and are not in desparation sale situation.

An example, just talked to a neighbor in my complex in PB and found out they are moving and about to list the property. They have owned since the complex opened in the 80s so they little or no debt on the place. I asked them what they plan to list it at and the price range they want is higher than any of the comps for this complex, even than the units that sold in 2005, at the market peak.

I politely informed them that this would be challenging given the market correction, but they said they won’t settle for less as they have completely re-modeled the place. Clearly they have no chance to get anywhere near their asking price. Anyone who reads the paper can see that median prices are down 20% since the peak. So how can people rationalize asking higher than peak prices given that the market has dropped 20% since then?

Ignorance or denial. These owners that aren’t in a desparation sale situation continue to be stubborn trying to hold on to the past (everyone seller wants it to be 2005 again). That is why we see such high asking prices in PB. But, it doesn’t change the reality that real values are dropping everyday and sales prices are reflecting that.

[Anonymous]

The problem in PB that I am seeing is that sellers are either ignorant or in denial about the reality of the ongoing crash (price correction). Why is this? I think it can be partly explained by the fact that there is little if any new development in these areas, and most sellers have lived in their homes for many years and are not in desparation sale situation.

An example, just talked to a neighbor in my complex in PB and found out they are moving and about to list the property. They have owned since the complex opened in the 80s so they little or no debt on the place. I asked them what they plan to list it at and the price range they want is higher than any of the comps for this complex, even than the units that sold in 2005, at the market peak.

I politely informed them that this would be challenging given the market correction, but they said they won’t settle for less as they have completely re-modeled the place. Clearly they have no chance to get anywhere near their asking price. Anyone who reads the paper can see that median prices are down 20% since the peak. So how can people rationalize asking higher than peak prices given that the market has dropped 20% since then?

Ignorance or denial. These owners that aren’t in a desparation sale situation continue to be stubborn trying to hold on to the past (everyone seller wants it to be 2005 again). That is why we see such high asking prices in PB. But, it doesn’t change the reality that real values are dropping everyday and sales prices are reflecting that.

[Anonymous]

The problem in PB that I am seeing is that sellers are either ignorant or in denial about the reality of the ongoing crash (price correction). Why is this? I think it can be partly explained by the fact that there is little if any new development in these areas, and most sellers have lived in their homes for many years and are not in desparation sale situation.

An example, just talked to a neighbor in my complex in PB and found out they are moving and about to list the property. They have owned since the complex opened in the 80s so they little or no debt on the place. I asked them what they plan to list it at and the price range they want is higher than any of the comps for this complex, even than the units that sold in 2005, at the market peak.

I politely informed them that this would be challenging given the market correction, but they said they won’t settle for less as they have completely re-modeled the place. Clearly they have no chance to get anywhere near their asking price. Anyone who reads the paper can see that median prices are down 20% since the peak. So how can people rationalize asking higher than peak prices given that the market has dropped 20% since then?

Ignorance or denial. These owners that aren’t in a desparation sale situation continue to be stubborn trying to hold on to the past (everyone seller wants it to be 2005 again). That is why we see such high asking prices in PB. But, it doesn’t change the reality that real values are dropping everyday and sales prices are reflecting that.

[Anonymous]

The problem in PB that I am seeing is that sellers are either ignorant or in denial about the reality of the ongoing crash (price correction). Why is this? I think it can be partly explained by the fact that there is little if any new development in these areas, and most sellers have lived in their homes for many years and are not in desparation sale situation.

An example, just talked to a neighbor in my complex in PB and found out they are moving and about to list the property. They have owned since the complex opened in the 80s so they little or no debt on the place. I asked them what they plan to list it at and the price range they want is higher than any of the comps for this complex, even than the units that sold in 2005, at the market peak.

I politely informed them that this would be challenging given the market correction, but they said they won’t settle for less as they have completely re-modeled the place. Clearly they have no chance to get anywhere near their asking price. Anyone who reads the paper can see that median prices are down 20% since the peak. So how can people rationalize asking higher than peak prices given that the market has dropped 20% since then?

Ignorance or denial. These owners that aren’t in a desparation sale situation continue to be stubborn trying to hold on to the past (everyone seller wants it to be 2005 again). That is why we see such high asking prices in PB. But, it doesn’t change the reality that real values are dropping everyday and sales prices are reflecting that.

[Anonymous]

Yes prices will come down in PB. No place is immune, stop being an idiot with that type of irrational thinking. PB prices are already at 2004 levels (or lower) if you did any research you would know that. Look at sales prices, not asking prices. Look at PB sales prices in 1996 and you’ll see the effects of housing crash on PB.

[Anonymous]

Yes prices will come down in PB. No place is immune, stop being an idiot with that type of irrational thinking. PB prices are already at 2004 levels (or lower) if you did any research you would know that. Look at sales prices, not asking prices. Look at PB sales prices in 1996 and you’ll see the effects of housing crash on PB.

[Anonymous]

Yes prices will come down in PB. No place is immune, stop being an idiot with that type of irrational thinking. PB prices are already at 2004 levels (or lower) if you did any research you would know that. Look at sales prices, not asking prices. Look at PB sales prices in 1996 and you’ll see the effects of housing crash on PB.

[Anonymous]

Yes prices will come down in PB. No place is immune, stop being an idiot with that type of irrational thinking. PB prices are already at 2004 levels (or lower) if you did any research you would know that. Look at sales prices, not asking prices. Look at PB sales prices in 1996 and you’ll see the effects of housing crash on PB.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 15, 2008 – 7:30am.

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

Yes, I do. As to how much, I’ll defer to those on here who are much more knowledgeable about the market than I am to provide guestimates for you.

P.S. Yes, I’m a woman. 🙂

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 15, 2008 – 7:30am.

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

Yes, I do. As to how much, I’ll defer to those on here who are much more knowledgeable about the market than I am to provide guestimates for you.

P.S. Yes, I’m a woman. 🙂

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 15, 2008 – 7:30am.

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

Yes, I do. As to how much, I’ll defer to those on here who are much more knowledgeable about the market than I am to provide guestimates for you.

P.S. Yes, I’m a woman. 🙂

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 15, 2008 – 7:30am.

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

Yes, I do. As to how much, I’ll defer to those on here who are much more knowledgeable about the market than I am to provide guestimates for you.

P.S. Yes, I’m a woman. 🙂

[Anonymous]

Submitted by jpinpb on March 15, 2008 – 7:30am.

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

Yes, I do. As to how much, I’ll defer to those on here who are much more knowledgeable about the market than I am to provide guestimates for you.

P.S. Yes, I’m a woman. 🙂

[jpinpb]

djc – Yeah. That was a condo. HOAs are 150k. Not even a garage.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086013784-1244_Thomas_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92109

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

[jpinpb]

djc – Yeah. That was a condo. HOAs are 150k. Not even a garage.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086013784-1244_Thomas_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92109

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

[jpinpb]

djc – Yeah. That was a condo. HOAs are 150k. Not even a garage.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086013784-1244_Thomas_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92109

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

[jpinpb]

djc – Yeah. That was a condo. HOAs are 150k. Not even a garage.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086013784-1244_Thomas_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92109

marion – you think eventually prices will come down in PB?

[djc]

http://www.trulia.com/property/1051752031-1244-Thomas-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92109

nice 3/2 in PB. says house, not condo. 5 blks from beach, %545. Newer (for PB) 25 yr old house.

[djc]

http://www.trulia.com/property/1051752031-1244-Thomas-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92109

nice 3/2 in PB. says house, not condo. 5 blks from beach, %545. Newer (for PB) 25 yr old house.

[djc]

http://www.trulia.com/property/1051752031-1244-Thomas-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92109

nice 3/2 in PB. says house, not condo. 5 blks from beach, %545. Newer (for PB) 25 yr old house.

[djc]

http://www.trulia.com/property/1051752031-1244-Thomas-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92109

nice 3/2 in PB. says house, not condo. 5 blks from beach, %545. Newer (for PB) 25 yr old house.

[jpinpb]

Gosh, I wish I could say it was just this one place. I recently saw another POS on Chalcedony and one on Jewell. Both went pending. They were in the mid 600k range, thereabouts. Really old places that needed major upgrading. At least Emerald was upgraded. When I see these places sell, then I start to believe PB is immune, w/its bad rep and all.

[jpinpb]

Gosh, I wish I could say it was just this one place. I recently saw another POS on Chalcedony and one on Jewell. Both went pending. They were in the mid 600k range, thereabouts. Really old places that needed major upgrading. At least Emerald was upgraded. When I see these places sell, then I start to believe PB is immune, w/its bad rep and all.

[jpinpb]

Gosh, I wish I could say it was just this one place. I recently saw another POS on Chalcedony and one on Jewell. Both went pending. They were in the mid 600k range, thereabouts. Really old places that needed major upgrading. At least Emerald was upgraded. When I see these places sell, then I start to believe PB is immune, w/its bad rep and all.

[jpinpb]

Gosh, I wish I could say it was just this one place. I recently saw another POS on Chalcedony and one on Jewell. Both went pending. They were in the mid 600k range, thereabouts. Really old places that needed major upgrading. At least Emerald was upgraded. When I see these places sell, then I start to believe PB is immune, w/its bad rep and all.

[ibjames]

I also wouldn’t base my judgement on one place. This could be one instance out of a 100 that actually had the stars line up and it sell at a high price.

You live in PB, drive around.. for sale signs everywhere.

That is not something that makes high prices sustainable. A lot of competition out there. PB’s rep hasn’t gotten any better either.

It is a place close to the ocean though, so the real dramtic declines I don’t think are happening there. It’s going to take some time for the wave of crap to fill it’s way down the streets.

Look at Mira Mesa, and some of the outskirts. For a while it seemed like San Diego wasn’t going to really decline much, only Temecula. We are seeing declines there now, it’s starting to make it’s way to other neighborhoods too. Don’t get distracted

[ibjames]

I also wouldn’t base my judgement on one place. This could be one instance out of a 100 that actually had the stars line up and it sell at a high price.

You live in PB, drive around.. for sale signs everywhere.

That is not something that makes high prices sustainable. A lot of competition out there. PB’s rep hasn’t gotten any better either.

It is a place close to the ocean though, so the real dramtic declines I don’t think are happening there. It’s going to take some time for the wave of crap to fill it’s way down the streets.

Look at Mira Mesa, and some of the outskirts. For a while it seemed like San Diego wasn’t going to really decline much, only Temecula. We are seeing declines there now, it’s starting to make it’s way to other neighborhoods too. Don’t get distracted

[ibjames]

I also wouldn’t base my judgement on one place. This could be one instance out of a 100 that actually had the stars line up and it sell at a high price.

You live in PB, drive around.. for sale signs everywhere.

That is not something that makes high prices sustainable. A lot of competition out there. PB’s rep hasn’t gotten any better either.

It is a place close to the ocean though, so the real dramtic declines I don’t think are happening there. It’s going to take some time for the wave of crap to fill it’s way down the streets.

Look at Mira Mesa, and some of the outskirts. For a while it seemed like San Diego wasn’t going to really decline much, only Temecula. We are seeing declines there now, it’s starting to make it’s way to other neighborhoods too. Don’t get distracted

[ibjames]

I also wouldn’t base my judgement on one place. This could be one instance out of a 100 that actually had the stars line up and it sell at a high price.

You live in PB, drive around.. for sale signs everywhere.

That is not something that makes high prices sustainable. A lot of competition out there. PB’s rep hasn’t gotten any better either.

It is a place close to the ocean though, so the real dramtic declines I don’t think are happening there. It’s going to take some time for the wave of crap to fill it’s way down the streets.

Look at Mira Mesa, and some of the outskirts. For a while it seemed like San Diego wasn’t going to really decline much, only Temecula. We are seeing declines there now, it’s starting to make it’s way to other neighborhoods too. Don’t get distracted

[jpinpb]

I saw a place on Missouri, just as nice, that was renting for 2k. Hard to imagine someone getting 3. But I wouldn’t have thought this place would sell for 710k. So I guess anything is possible.

[jpinpb]

I saw a place on Missouri, just as nice, that was renting for 2k. Hard to imagine someone getting 3. But I wouldn’t have thought this place would sell for 710k. So I guess anything is possible.

[jpinpb]

I saw a place on Missouri, just as nice, that was renting for 2k. Hard to imagine someone getting 3. But I wouldn’t have thought this place would sell for 710k. So I guess anything is possible.

[jpinpb]

I saw a place on Missouri, just as nice, that was renting for 2k. Hard to imagine someone getting 3. But I wouldn’t have thought this place would sell for 710k. So I guess anything is possible.

[cantab]

In the 90s, houses in PB typically rented for 0.5% per month of the purchase price. So $3000/mo rent implies $600K price by that rule of thumb. Of course, even in the mid 90s, renting was mostly cheaper than buying.

That said, I don’t believe you can get $3000 per month in PB for a 1286 sq ft house.

[cantab]

In the 90s, houses in PB typically rented for 0.5% per month of the purchase price. So $3000/mo rent implies $600K price by that rule of thumb. Of course, even in the mid 90s, renting was mostly cheaper than buying.

That said, I don’t believe you can get $3000 per month in PB for a 1286 sq ft house.

[cantab]

In the 90s, houses in PB typically rented for 0.5% per month of the purchase price. So $3000/mo rent implies $600K price by that rule of thumb. Of course, even in the mid 90s, renting was mostly cheaper than buying.

That said, I don’t believe you can get $3000 per month in PB for a 1286 sq ft house.

[cantab]

In the 90s, houses in PB typically rented for 0.5% per month of the purchase price. So $3000/mo rent implies $600K price by that rule of thumb. Of course, even in the mid 90s, renting was mostly cheaper than buying.

That said, I don’t believe you can get $3000 per month in PB for a 1286 sq ft house.

[Doofrat]

It makes total sense and here’s why:

Take $710,000 minus $80,000 down payment that you got from a home equity loan. You now have $630,000 financed.

Take $630,000 and multiply it by 5% interest which equals $31,500. This is the interest you pay. Add a little more, (lets say $4000 for principal) which gives you a total payment each year of $35,500.

Divide $35,500 by 12 and it equals a monthly payment of $2958.00.

They are asking $3000 for rent. It just about evens out.

Don’t like my math? Neither do I, but this is the way people think.

[Doofrat]

It makes total sense and here’s why:

Take $710,000 minus $80,000 down payment that you got from a home equity loan. You now have $630,000 financed.

Take $630,000 and multiply it by 5% interest which equals $31,500. This is the interest you pay. Add a little more, (lets say $4000 for principal) which gives you a total payment each year of $35,500.

Divide $35,500 by 12 and it equals a monthly payment of $2958.00.

They are asking $3000 for rent. It just about evens out.

Don’t like my math? Neither do I, but this is the way people think.

[Doofrat]

It makes total sense and here’s why:

Take $710,000 minus $80,000 down payment that you got from a home equity loan. You now have $630,000 financed.

Take $630,000 and multiply it by 5% interest which equals $31,500. This is the interest you pay. Add a little more, (lets say $4000 for principal) which gives you a total payment each year of $35,500.

Divide $35,500 by 12 and it equals a monthly payment of $2958.00.

They are asking $3000 for rent. It just about evens out.

Don’t like my math? Neither do I, but this is the way people think.

[Doofrat]

It makes total sense and here’s why:

Take $710,000 minus $80,000 down payment that you got from a home equity loan. You now have $630,000 financed.

Take $630,000 and multiply it by 5% interest which equals $31,500. This is the interest you pay. Add a little more, (lets say $4000 for principal) which gives you a total payment each year of $35,500.

Divide $35,500 by 12 and it equals a monthly payment of $2958.00.

They are asking $3000 for rent. It just about evens out.

Don’t like my math? Neither do I, but this is the way people think.

[Author]

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