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June 20, 2010 at 8:16 AM #568579June 20, 2010 at 8:43 AM #567632SD RealtorParticipant
No the metaphor was meant for the uber bears who think, thought, continue to hope that the tsunami cannot be stopped. There are those believers that the govt will not go down with the ship. In reality the system has been forever changed and that the tsunami can indeed be diverted, reduced, or whatever you want to call it. There are plenty of people who can get workouts and mods, and will be able to maintain home ownership for quite awhile because of them. There are some who will default again. As long as the system can keep whittling down the numbers it will work. Walkways and jingle mail will happen as well but the system has shown resiliency and will let those people live for free until the system decides to deal with them individually.
What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see!
June 20, 2010 at 8:43 AM #567726SD RealtorParticipantNo the metaphor was meant for the uber bears who think, thought, continue to hope that the tsunami cannot be stopped. There are those believers that the govt will not go down with the ship. In reality the system has been forever changed and that the tsunami can indeed be diverted, reduced, or whatever you want to call it. There are plenty of people who can get workouts and mods, and will be able to maintain home ownership for quite awhile because of them. There are some who will default again. As long as the system can keep whittling down the numbers it will work. Walkways and jingle mail will happen as well but the system has shown resiliency and will let those people live for free until the system decides to deal with them individually.
What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see!
June 20, 2010 at 8:43 AM #568226SD RealtorParticipantNo the metaphor was meant for the uber bears who think, thought, continue to hope that the tsunami cannot be stopped. There are those believers that the govt will not go down with the ship. In reality the system has been forever changed and that the tsunami can indeed be diverted, reduced, or whatever you want to call it. There are plenty of people who can get workouts and mods, and will be able to maintain home ownership for quite awhile because of them. There are some who will default again. As long as the system can keep whittling down the numbers it will work. Walkways and jingle mail will happen as well but the system has shown resiliency and will let those people live for free until the system decides to deal with them individually.
What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see!
June 20, 2010 at 8:43 AM #568334SD RealtorParticipantNo the metaphor was meant for the uber bears who think, thought, continue to hope that the tsunami cannot be stopped. There are those believers that the govt will not go down with the ship. In reality the system has been forever changed and that the tsunami can indeed be diverted, reduced, or whatever you want to call it. There are plenty of people who can get workouts and mods, and will be able to maintain home ownership for quite awhile because of them. There are some who will default again. As long as the system can keep whittling down the numbers it will work. Walkways and jingle mail will happen as well but the system has shown resiliency and will let those people live for free until the system decides to deal with them individually.
What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see!
June 20, 2010 at 8:43 AM #568614SD RealtorParticipantNo the metaphor was meant for the uber bears who think, thought, continue to hope that the tsunami cannot be stopped. There are those believers that the govt will not go down with the ship. In reality the system has been forever changed and that the tsunami can indeed be diverted, reduced, or whatever you want to call it. There are plenty of people who can get workouts and mods, and will be able to maintain home ownership for quite awhile because of them. There are some who will default again. As long as the system can keep whittling down the numbers it will work. Walkways and jingle mail will happen as well but the system has shown resiliency and will let those people live for free until the system decides to deal with them individually.
What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see!
June 20, 2010 at 2:45 PM #567797CA renterParticipant[quote=SD Realtor]What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see![/quote]
IMHO, this is exactly why the private mortgage market doesn’t exist. With all the money printing going on — and the insecurities regarding fiat currencies — only a fool would accept fixed rates for 30 years at sub-6%, and this is for borrowers who’ve already shown a propensity for default/financial distress. Is it any wonder we (the taxpayers) are backing up all this nonsense?
BTW, as an uber-bear, I’ve always conceded that there was a possibility my thesis (deflation) would turn out wrong. There has always been a very good argument on both sides of the inflation/deflation debate (I’ve always believed there would be a currency crisis, just that there would be a period of major deflation just before it — much more deflation than what we saw in 2008). We all just have to take a gamble and choose sides; they’ve left us no choice.
June 20, 2010 at 2:45 PM #567890CA renterParticipant[quote=SD Realtor]What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see![/quote]
IMHO, this is exactly why the private mortgage market doesn’t exist. With all the money printing going on — and the insecurities regarding fiat currencies — only a fool would accept fixed rates for 30 years at sub-6%, and this is for borrowers who’ve already shown a propensity for default/financial distress. Is it any wonder we (the taxpayers) are backing up all this nonsense?
BTW, as an uber-bear, I’ve always conceded that there was a possibility my thesis (deflation) would turn out wrong. There has always been a very good argument on both sides of the inflation/deflation debate (I’ve always believed there would be a currency crisis, just that there would be a period of major deflation just before it — much more deflation than what we saw in 2008). We all just have to take a gamble and choose sides; they’ve left us no choice.
June 20, 2010 at 2:45 PM #568395CA renterParticipant[quote=SD Realtor]What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see![/quote]
IMHO, this is exactly why the private mortgage market doesn’t exist. With all the money printing going on — and the insecurities regarding fiat currencies — only a fool would accept fixed rates for 30 years at sub-6%, and this is for borrowers who’ve already shown a propensity for default/financial distress. Is it any wonder we (the taxpayers) are backing up all this nonsense?
BTW, as an uber-bear, I’ve always conceded that there was a possibility my thesis (deflation) would turn out wrong. There has always been a very good argument on both sides of the inflation/deflation debate (I’ve always believed there would be a currency crisis, just that there would be a period of major deflation just before it — much more deflation than what we saw in 2008). We all just have to take a gamble and choose sides; they’ve left us no choice.
June 20, 2010 at 2:45 PM #568501CA renterParticipant[quote=SD Realtor]What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see![/quote]
IMHO, this is exactly why the private mortgage market doesn’t exist. With all the money printing going on — and the insecurities regarding fiat currencies — only a fool would accept fixed rates for 30 years at sub-6%, and this is for borrowers who’ve already shown a propensity for default/financial distress. Is it any wonder we (the taxpayers) are backing up all this nonsense?
BTW, as an uber-bear, I’ve always conceded that there was a possibility my thesis (deflation) would turn out wrong. There has always been a very good argument on both sides of the inflation/deflation debate (I’ve always believed there would be a currency crisis, just that there would be a period of major deflation just before it — much more deflation than what we saw in 2008). We all just have to take a gamble and choose sides; they’ve left us no choice.
June 20, 2010 at 2:45 PM #568781CA renterParticipant[quote=SD Realtor]What is quite interesting is the deal on the rates these people are getting in light of potential drastic interest rate hikes we can and will likely see in upcoming years. If you are saying Joe Buyer buys a home in 05, gets a loan mod in 09 or 10, has a 4.75 cap and in 2014 we are at 12% rates, he is doing pretty well. Screw it if he has to give his profits up if he sells. He is probably pretty darn happy.
Also I am quite skeptical of the ability of the banks to track owner occupancy as well.
I guess we will see![/quote]
IMHO, this is exactly why the private mortgage market doesn’t exist. With all the money printing going on — and the insecurities regarding fiat currencies — only a fool would accept fixed rates for 30 years at sub-6%, and this is for borrowers who’ve already shown a propensity for default/financial distress. Is it any wonder we (the taxpayers) are backing up all this nonsense?
BTW, as an uber-bear, I’ve always conceded that there was a possibility my thesis (deflation) would turn out wrong. There has always been a very good argument on both sides of the inflation/deflation debate (I’ve always believed there would be a currency crisis, just that there would be a period of major deflation just before it — much more deflation than what we saw in 2008). We all just have to take a gamble and choose sides; they’ve left us no choice.
June 20, 2010 at 3:10 PM #567811pemelizaParticipant“We all just have to take a gamble and choose sides; they’ve left us no choice.”
Well spoken CAR.
June 20, 2010 at 3:10 PM #567905pemelizaParticipant“We all just have to take a gamble and choose sides; they’ve left us no choice.”
Well spoken CAR.
June 20, 2010 at 3:10 PM #568410pemelizaParticipant“We all just have to take a gamble and choose sides; they’ve left us no choice.”
Well spoken CAR.
June 20, 2010 at 3:10 PM #568516pemelizaParticipant“We all just have to take a gamble and choose sides; they’ve left us no choice.”
Well spoken CAR.
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