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Allan from Fallbrook.
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June 9, 2009 at 2:08 PM #413463June 9, 2009 at 2:25 PM #412796
dbapig
Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Afx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.[/quote]
Kim of NK looks like he’s got bigger ones but actually he’s the most desperate one. His health is failing and he doesn’t have a succession plan in order. His army is rusting away…
June 9, 2009 at 2:25 PM #413031Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Afx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.[/quote]
Kim of NK looks like he’s got bigger ones but actually he’s the most desperate one. His health is failing and he doesn’t have a succession plan in order. His army is rusting away…
June 9, 2009 at 2:25 PM #413276Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Afx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.[/quote]
Kim of NK looks like he’s got bigger ones but actually he’s the most desperate one. His health is failing and he doesn’t have a succession plan in order. His army is rusting away…
June 9, 2009 at 2:25 PM #413340Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Afx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.[/quote]
Kim of NK looks like he’s got bigger ones but actually he’s the most desperate one. His health is failing and he doesn’t have a succession plan in order. His army is rusting away…
June 9, 2009 at 2:25 PM #413489Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Afx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.[/quote]
Kim of NK looks like he’s got bigger ones but actually he’s the most desperate one. His health is failing and he doesn’t have a succession plan in order. His army is rusting away…
June 9, 2009 at 2:26 PM #412801Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Most of the power plants will not have fuel to run so not worth spending the fuel in the jets to bomb them. AND, with the recent advancement, I doubt many US/SK airplanes will be ‘shot’ down while attacking NK.
June 9, 2009 at 2:26 PM #413037Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Most of the power plants will not have fuel to run so not worth spending the fuel in the jets to bomb them. AND, with the recent advancement, I doubt many US/SK airplanes will be ‘shot’ down while attacking NK.
June 9, 2009 at 2:26 PM #413283Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Most of the power plants will not have fuel to run so not worth spending the fuel in the jets to bomb them. AND, with the recent advancement, I doubt many US/SK airplanes will be ‘shot’ down while attacking NK.
June 9, 2009 at 2:26 PM #413347Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Most of the power plants will not have fuel to run so not worth spending the fuel in the jets to bomb them. AND, with the recent advancement, I doubt many US/SK airplanes will be ‘shot’ down while attacking NK.
June 9, 2009 at 2:26 PM #413496Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Most of the power plants will not have fuel to run so not worth spending the fuel in the jets to bomb them. AND, with the recent advancement, I doubt many US/SK airplanes will be ‘shot’ down while attacking NK.
June 9, 2009 at 2:27 PM #412809
CoronitaParticipant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=flu]Load a bunch of C130 cargo planes with U.S. propaganda. But instead of dropping leaflets, just drop them DVD copies of “Team America: World Police.” They can be the bootlegged copies from China to save on cost.
America…Fvck Yeah…
[/quote]FLU: I love that movie! Have you seen the uncut version? That whole puppet porn scene is so wrong. But funny.
[/quote]Fvck Yeah…. 🙂
[img_assist|nid=11276|title=Kim|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=344|height=349]
June 9, 2009 at 2:27 PM #413045CoronitaParticipant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=flu]Load a bunch of C130 cargo planes with U.S. propaganda. But instead of dropping leaflets, just drop them DVD copies of “Team America: World Police.” They can be the bootlegged copies from China to save on cost.
America…Fvck Yeah…
[/quote]FLU: I love that movie! Have you seen the uncut version? That whole puppet porn scene is so wrong. But funny.
[/quote]Fvck Yeah…. 🙂
[img_assist|nid=11276|title=Kim|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=344|height=349]
June 9, 2009 at 2:27 PM #413290CoronitaParticipant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=flu]Load a bunch of C130 cargo planes with U.S. propaganda. But instead of dropping leaflets, just drop them DVD copies of “Team America: World Police.” They can be the bootlegged copies from China to save on cost.
America…Fvck Yeah…
[/quote]FLU: I love that movie! Have you seen the uncut version? That whole puppet porn scene is so wrong. But funny.
[/quote]Fvck Yeah…. 🙂
[img_assist|nid=11276|title=Kim|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=344|height=349]
June 9, 2009 at 2:27 PM #413353CoronitaParticipant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=flu]Load a bunch of C130 cargo planes with U.S. propaganda. But instead of dropping leaflets, just drop them DVD copies of “Team America: World Police.” They can be the bootlegged copies from China to save on cost.
America…Fvck Yeah…
[/quote]FLU: I love that movie! Have you seen the uncut version? That whole puppet porn scene is so wrong. But funny.
[/quote]Fvck Yeah…. 🙂
[img_assist|nid=11276|title=Kim|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=344|height=349]
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