OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[FlyerInHi]

Im going out on a limb… as a Nevada resident,I’m predicting a win for Hillary. Obama won Nevada in 2012.
And likely a win for Harry Reid’s choice Catherine Cortez Masto for senate.

All you have to do is listen to Spanish Language media. The opposition to Trump is strong. Don’t understand why the MSM says Nevada is in play.

Any predictions, anyone? Being right makes you a winner. 😉

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
All you have to do is listen to Spanish Language media. The opposition to Trump is strong. Don’t understand why the MSM says Nevada is in play.

Any predictions, anyone? Being right makes you a winner. ;)[/quote]

Whatever Nate Silver says.

I think with Nevada the remaining uncertainty is the fact Clinton hasn’t broken 50% in any polls. There are enough undecideds and Gary Johnson voters that if they broke hard for Trump at the end it could flip.

The media is portraying Pennsylvania as in play, but the polls there routinely show Clinton up by about 10. Unless the polls are very wrong, it’s going Clinton.

[FlyerInHi]

This is what Nate Silver says:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

For senate, looks like a win for dem.
Russ Feingold, WI
Evan Bayh, IN. Nice to see good democrats make a comeback
Tammy Duckwoth, IL. I like her, she’s from HI like Obama.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/

[livinincali]

[quote=FlyerInHi]This is what Nate Silver says:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

For senate, looks like a win for dem.
Russ Feingold, WI
Evan Bayh, IN. Nice to see good democrats make a comeback
Tammy Duckwoth, IL. I like her, she’s from HI like Obama.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/%5B/quote%5D

While Nate Silver might have a decent track record in the past he was horribly wrong about Trump in the Republican primaries. I do think Hillary is going to win and the democrats will do pretty well. Voter turnout is probably going to be low for this election. No one seems to be very enthusiastic about this election. Hillary probably wins the popular vote like 63-64 million to 59-60 for Trump. That will be lower than Obama’s 2008 (69 to 60) or 2012 (66 to 61) victories. I don’t want to predict electoral because it involves too much research, let Nate Silver figure that out. He’ll probably be close but it will be closer than his prediction.

[FlyerInHi]

I think Hispanic turnout will be highest ever. Asians too. We will see.

[svelte]

[quote=poorgradstudent]

Whatever Nate Silver says.

I think with Nevada the remaining uncertainty is the fact Clinton hasn’t broken 50% in any polls. There are enough undecideds and Gary Johnson voters that if they broke hard for Trump at the end it could flip.
[/quote]

The history of flipping at this late date is not high. Here is a great graphic:

Is There Any Precedent For A Trump Comeback?

Since 1952 it has only flipped once after mid October, and that was just barely.

[svelte]

Seems like everyone missed Clintons best comment in Debate 3. When Trump said that all Hillary did was talk for 30 years and didn’t get anything done, she said:

“You know, back in the 1970s, I worked for the Children’s Defense Fund, and I was taking on discrimination against African-American kids in schools. He was getting sued by the Justice Department for racial discrimination in his apartment buildings.”

“In the 1980s, I was working to reform the schools in Arkansas. He was borrowing $14 million from his father to start his businesses. In the 1990s, I went to Beijing and I said women’s rights are human rights. He insulted a former Miss Universe, Alicia Machado, called her an eating machine. And on the day when I was in the Situation Room, monitoring the raid that brought Osama bin Laden to justice, he was hosting the ‘Celebrity Apprentice.'”

That is the perfect comeback. Especially love that last sentence!

Harkens back to the “I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. You’re no Jack Kennedy” debate comeback from decades past.

[FlyerInHi]

The best gifts to Hillary were “bad hombres” and “such a nasty woman”

[Anonymous]

[svelte]

The gift that keeps on giving…

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jessica-drake-donald-trump-assault_us_580bde7ae4b000d0b157203c

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=svelte]The gift that keeps on giving…

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jessica-drake-donald-trump-assault_us_580bde7ae4b000d0b157203c
[/quote]

The reaction among many is “Duh, what did she expect when she went Trump’s suite. Just dinner and chit chat? ”
But still it doesn’t excuse Trump for sexual assault.

I have a friend who says that, most of time, a ride in his luxury car is enough to generate consent.

[bearishgurl]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out a little on election eve. Trump takes AZ, NV, FL and NC. And UT, if that state is still “in play.” I’m still studying the other tossup states plus the ones Trump is trying to “steal” from the Dems. Hopefully …. more later today.

Comments??

[no_such_reality]

Well, we never got a chance to watch last season of “The Walking Dead” on the DVR and this season has started. So after dinner and before news pundits start, we’re tuning the TV to a music channel, putting the kid to bed and having a marathon.

Hopefully when Lucille is done singing, we’ll have a calm clear winner. No landslide, just a nice clean margin of victory with a nice margin of victory of electoral votes.

My big concern is that like 2000, the election hangs on the balance of Floriduh and they manage to have another hanging chad review.

[FlyerInHi]

BG, you gonna to be very dissapointed.

Tomorrow, I’m hosting a little election watch party at my apartment. We’re going to have global elite fare — champagne, caviar, sushi. maybe a papaya shrimp salad… You know, the same stuff Trump serves at his super model parties.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=bearishgurl]OK, I’ll stick my neck out a little on election eve. Trump takes AZ, NV, FL and NC. And UT, if that state is still “in play.” I’m still studying the other tossup states plus the ones Trump is trying to “steal” from the Dems. Hopefully …. more later today.

Comments??[/quote]

He’ll win those states and lose the Presidency.

[Author]

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