OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[svelte]

I apologize in advance for bringing up the topic (it is sure to be over-discussed next year!), but now is a good time to make predictions.

The primaries start in just a few weeks and bring clarity to who will be the final candidates.

So now is the opportune time to make predictions: who will be the final, post-convention candidate selections for US President of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and any other party you which to mention?

Bonus points for specifying who their running mate will be!

[svelte]

I know looking back on this post in another year my prediction will seem foolish, but I still think Jeb is waiting in the wings, staying out of the fray.

I think it’s going to be Clinton and Bush. Not that I want it to be that, but I predict that’s where we’ll end up.

[NotCranky]

I agree. It will be two party approved candidates anyway.

[Coronita]

hillary is going to win…..better than barry though… I’m not a fan of her, but all the other candidates from both parties are just nuts.

So what can you do?

[an]

I think Hillary would win too, unless we get a major or several major terrorist attack. Then it’s whoever the republican nominee is (hopefully not Trump).

[Anonymous]

You gotta hand it to the Republicans, they’ve got quite a cast for this season.

Of course there’s Trump, but we’ve also got the red-blooded American who is a Canadian citizen, the actual brain surgeon who comes across as completely unintelligent, and the other racial minority candidate that is generally disliked by his own minority group.

[zk]

The republicans have a brokered convention. Bush or Rubio is the nominee. If I have to pick a winner, I’d say Rubio.

I wonder if part of the GOP’s anti-Trump strategy is to encourage (behind the scenes, of course) most of the candidates to stay in the race. That will reduce the chances of Trump winning on the first ballot, after which the establishment can relatively easily install their favorite candidate. I don’t know much about the political parties or their workings, so this scenario could be totally far-fetched. I’d be interested to hear other opinions on it.

On the other side, Hillary wins.

General election, Hillary wins.

About a month ago, I bet a guy at work on the republican nomination. I gave him Trump and Carson (this was when Carson was running almost even with Trump, and everybody else was trailing badly) and I took the field. I don’t see either of those guys winning the nomination.

[poorgradstudent]

Rubio wins the Republican Nomination
Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination

Clinton wins the White House in a close popular election but dominates the Electoral College thanks to current Democratic structural advantages.

The Democrats gain 3 seats in the Senate leaving the Republicans a slim 51-49 majority. Democrats make small gains in the house (10-12 seats), but no massive coattail effect, and Republicans keep a majority, losing their most moderate members from purplish districts.

[poorgradstudent]

I don’t think Trump or Bush have better than a 2% chance of actually winning, for the record. Bush has a ton of cash, but he’s got no personality… he doesn’t even seem to really WANT to be president.

So Scenario #1 was Rubio. Here’s Scenario #2 (Chickens run the Henhouse)

Clinton still wins the Democratic Nomination because Bernie polls poorly with minority voters, a huge chunk of the Democratic Coalition.

Cruz wins Iowa, takes second in New Hampshire (or wins a very crowded field there), and manages to grind his way to the nomination as a sort of compromise between the Trump wing (~25% of the party) and everyone else.

Clinton of course destroys Cruz in the general election, because he’s Cruz. Massive Coat Tails allow Democrats to take 4 seats in the Senate to take a 50-50 tie, and the House is too close to call on Election Night. Ultimately Paul Ryan holds onto the speakership by a slim majority, but can’t pass anything past his own caucus, much less send it to the Senate to get rejected.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=poorgradstudent]Rubio wins the Republican Nomination
Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination

Clinton wins the White House in a close popular election but dominates the Electoral College thanks to current Democratic structural advantages.

The Democrats gain 3 seats in the Senate leaving the Republicans a slim 51-49 majority. Democrats make small gains in the house (10-12 seats), but no massive coattail effect, and Republicans keep a majority, losing their most moderate members from purplish districts.[/quote]

wow! Another well analyzed post. Your posts are always on point. Very professorial and level headed.

I would add that the Republican establishment wins. Non college educated Whites become more alienated from the party.

I also agree with scenario #2.

Scenario #3. Trump gets the nomination. Republicans have no choice but to support him, and that brings up all kinds of issues.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=poorgradstudent] the Trump wing (~25% of the party) [/quote]

That’s the most interesting part. How would you define the Trump wing and how it affects future Republican politics?

[Anonymous]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
Scenario #3. Trump gets the nomination. Republicans have no choice but to support him, and that brings up all kinds of issues.[/quote]

That would be like watching Dr. Strangelove: hilarious and terrifying at the same time.

[Hatfield]

[quote=zk]The republicans have a brokered convention. Bush or Rubio is the nominee. If I have to pick a winner, I’d say Rubio.[/quote]

I’m with you on the brokered convention, though I think it may tip towards Bush. Tough to call. Bush has spent a fortune this cycle and hasn’t made much of a dent so far. So I’ll say 55% Bush, 45% Rubio but who knows, really.

In any event, GOP machine engineers an anyone-but-Trump candidacy. Trump gets butthurt, runs as an independent, and splits the conservative vote, handing the election to the Democratic nominee. I’m hoping it’ll be Bernie but it’ll probably be Hillary. I’ll hold my nose and vote for her.

[svelte]

[quote=Hatfield]
In any event, GOP machine engineers an anyone-but-Trump candidacy. Trump gets butthurt, runs as an independent, and splits the conservative vote, handing the election to the Democratic nominee. I’m hoping it’ll be Bernie but it’ll probably be Hillary. I’ll hold my nose and vote for her.[/quote]

Anyone know what the latest date is for Trump to qualify as a candidate on the ballot of all 50 states?

If he’s not watching that closely, then that tells me he was never serious about running independent – and that once that date passes the GOP powers will kick him out on his arse.

I’m still 75% sure he knows he’s not a serious candidate and is purposely being a fruitcake for some other reason. Publicity for his businesses? Attempting to steer the GOP platform where he wants it? Attention in general? Did he make a deal with the GOP to stir up the GOP base and take the heat from the Dems while all the other candidates whistle and look at the sky? Not sure…probably the only one who knows for sure is Trump himself.

I’m not typically all that interested in primaries, but I will be watching pretty closely this time just to see if people really are going to vote for him…it will blow my mind if they do.

[Coronita]

[quote=poorgradstudent]Rubio wins the Republican Nomination
Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination

Clinton wins the White House in a close popular election but dominates the Electoral College thanks to current Democratic structural advantages.

The Democrats gain 3 seats in the Senate leaving the Republicans a slim 51-49 majority. Democrats make small gains in the house (10-12 seats), but no massive coattail effect, and Republicans keep a majority, losing their most moderate members from purplish districts.[/quote]

I could live with that….Democrat white house, repub senate and house.

[Author]

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