OT: McCain Victory No Longer Unikely

[poorgradstudent]

I agree with your central thesis, that in recent days McCain has moved from being “highly unlikely” to win the electoral and popular vote, to merely “unlikely”.

However, looking at electoral math, Obama doesn’t need to do much better than John Kerry did to win. If he holds all the Kerry states (likely – even PA is polling closer to +7/8% Obama), he only needs to win NM, IA and CO, all states he’s polling extremely well in. If he wins either Ohio OR Florida Obama wins (both possible, as both are statistical ties). Oh, and he’s leading in Virginia (although not by much over the margin of error).

The polls could be wrong. The election isn’t over until it is over. “Likely voters” is always a dicey subject. There’s always a chance of complacency. But there’s also the chance of people wanting to vote for a winner, or not bothering to vote for someone who is percieved as having little chance of victory.

Undecided voters do seem to be breaking slightly in favor of McCain, cutting some of Obama’s leads. But I’ll be SHOCKED if Obama doesn’t end up winning Tuesday night, and possibly having it wrapped up before polls close here in California.

[jficquette]

Partypup,

Its hard to tell if the remaining undecided white voters are “hold outs” because of race or because Obama is such a terrible candidate or if the polls are just plain wrong.

My guess is it is more likely because he is himself is such a terrible candidate not race related to a significant degree.

I say that because Obama has about half the white vote in the polls while Obama has 90% of the Black vote. If Obama has half the white vote then the way math works then one cannot say that a much higher percentage of the undecideds is related to race.

Your right about the double standard. I mean who would you say is more racist? A group whose racial profile fits Obama and gives 90% support or a group whose racial profile is different from Obama but still gives 40-50% support.

On a side note. This putting the coal industry out of business comment should hurt Obama in Penn, Ohio because they mine a lot of coal there.

John

[jficquette]

Partypup,

Its hard to tell if the remaining undecided white voters are “hold outs” because of race or because Obama is such a terrible candidate or if the polls are just plain wrong.

My guess is it is more likely because he is himself is such a terrible candidate not race related to a significant degree.

I say that because Obama has about half the white vote in the polls while Obama has 90% of the Black vote. If Obama has half the white vote then the way math works then one cannot say that a much higher percentage of the undecideds is related to race.

Your right about the double standard. I mean who would you say is more racist? A group whose racial profile fits Obama and gives 90% support or a group whose racial profile is different from Obama but still gives 40-50% support.

On a side note. This putting the coal industry out of business comment should hurt Obama in Penn, Ohio because they mine a lot of coal there.

John

[jficquette]

Partypup,

Its hard to tell if the remaining undecided white voters are “hold outs” because of race or because Obama is such a terrible candidate or if the polls are just plain wrong.

My guess is it is more likely because he is himself is such a terrible candidate not race related to a significant degree.

I say that because Obama has about half the white vote in the polls while Obama has 90% of the Black vote. If Obama has half the white vote then the way math works then one cannot say that a much higher percentage of the undecideds is related to race.

Your right about the double standard. I mean who would you say is more racist? A group whose racial profile fits Obama and gives 90% support or a group whose racial profile is different from Obama but still gives 40-50% support.

On a side note. This putting the coal industry out of business comment should hurt Obama in Penn, Ohio because they mine a lot of coal there.

John

[jficquette]

Partypup,

Its hard to tell if the remaining undecided white voters are “hold outs” because of race or because Obama is such a terrible candidate or if the polls are just plain wrong.

My guess is it is more likely because he is himself is such a terrible candidate not race related to a significant degree.

I say that because Obama has about half the white vote in the polls while Obama has 90% of the Black vote. If Obama has half the white vote then the way math works then one cannot say that a much higher percentage of the undecideds is related to race.

Your right about the double standard. I mean who would you say is more racist? A group whose racial profile fits Obama and gives 90% support or a group whose racial profile is different from Obama but still gives 40-50% support.

On a side note. This putting the coal industry out of business comment should hurt Obama in Penn, Ohio because they mine a lot of coal there.

John

[jficquette]

Partypup,

Its hard to tell if the remaining undecided white voters are “hold outs” because of race or because Obama is such a terrible candidate or if the polls are just plain wrong.

My guess is it is more likely because he is himself is such a terrible candidate not race related to a significant degree.

I say that because Obama has about half the white vote in the polls while Obama has 90% of the Black vote. If Obama has half the white vote then the way math works then one cannot say that a much higher percentage of the undecideds is related to race.

Your right about the double standard. I mean who would you say is more racist? A group whose racial profile fits Obama and gives 90% support or a group whose racial profile is different from Obama but still gives 40-50% support.

On a side note. This putting the coal industry out of business comment should hurt Obama in Penn, Ohio because they mine a lot of coal there.

John

[jficquette]

Cooperthedog,

The trading on the election futures is based on the polls and not on the merits of the candidate.

Its like how stocks trade on recommendations from wall street analysts. Consider the polls as being wall street and you know or should know that wall street is in the tank for whatever stock they are trying to manipulate.

Again, people buy stocks based on hype. Hype in this case is the polls.

The underlying fundamentals are horrible for Obama. He is like a stock with no real products, no earnings, no future and ran by a crooked CEO.

I can’t think of any stock with poor underlying fundamentals that didn’t find its true value sooner or later and of course screw investors who relied on wall street for the purchase.

As far as the track record on intrade in the last election that was coincidental with the polls being accurate.

If polls are wrong this time the Obama traders will get hosed. I believe they are wrong.

John

[jficquette]

Cooperthedog,

The trading on the election futures is based on the polls and not on the merits of the candidate.

Its like how stocks trade on recommendations from wall street analysts. Consider the polls as being wall street and you know or should know that wall street is in the tank for whatever stock they are trying to manipulate.

Again, people buy stocks based on hype. Hype in this case is the polls.

The underlying fundamentals are horrible for Obama. He is like a stock with no real products, no earnings, no future and ran by a crooked CEO.

I can’t think of any stock with poor underlying fundamentals that didn’t find its true value sooner or later and of course screw investors who relied on wall street for the purchase.

As far as the track record on intrade in the last election that was coincidental with the polls being accurate.

If polls are wrong this time the Obama traders will get hosed. I believe they are wrong.

John

[jficquette]

Cooperthedog,

The trading on the election futures is based on the polls and not on the merits of the candidate.

Its like how stocks trade on recommendations from wall street analysts. Consider the polls as being wall street and you know or should know that wall street is in the tank for whatever stock they are trying to manipulate.

Again, people buy stocks based on hype. Hype in this case is the polls.

The underlying fundamentals are horrible for Obama. He is like a stock with no real products, no earnings, no future and ran by a crooked CEO.

I can’t think of any stock with poor underlying fundamentals that didn’t find its true value sooner or later and of course screw investors who relied on wall street for the purchase.

As far as the track record on intrade in the last election that was coincidental with the polls being accurate.

If polls are wrong this time the Obama traders will get hosed. I believe they are wrong.

John

[jficquette]

Cooperthedog,

The trading on the election futures is based on the polls and not on the merits of the candidate.

Its like how stocks trade on recommendations from wall street analysts. Consider the polls as being wall street and you know or should know that wall street is in the tank for whatever stock they are trying to manipulate.

Again, people buy stocks based on hype. Hype in this case is the polls.

The underlying fundamentals are horrible for Obama. He is like a stock with no real products, no earnings, no future and ran by a crooked CEO.

I can’t think of any stock with poor underlying fundamentals that didn’t find its true value sooner or later and of course screw investors who relied on wall street for the purchase.

As far as the track record on intrade in the last election that was coincidental with the polls being accurate.

If polls are wrong this time the Obama traders will get hosed. I believe they are wrong.

John

[jficquette]

Cooperthedog,

The trading on the election futures is based on the polls and not on the merits of the candidate.

Its like how stocks trade on recommendations from wall street analysts. Consider the polls as being wall street and you know or should know that wall street is in the tank for whatever stock they are trying to manipulate.

Again, people buy stocks based on hype. Hype in this case is the polls.

The underlying fundamentals are horrible for Obama. He is like a stock with no real products, no earnings, no future and ran by a crooked CEO.

I can’t think of any stock with poor underlying fundamentals that didn’t find its true value sooner or later and of course screw investors who relied on wall street for the purchase.

As far as the track record on intrade in the last election that was coincidental with the polls being accurate.

If polls are wrong this time the Obama traders will get hosed. I believe they are wrong.

John

[afx114]

538.com is now giving McCain a 1.9% chance to win.

Home

McCain’s chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or “Shy Tory” Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

[afx114]

538.com is now giving McCain a 1.9% chance to win.

Home

McCain’s chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or “Shy Tory” Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

[afx114]

538.com is now giving McCain a 1.9% chance to win.

Home

McCain’s chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or “Shy Tory” Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

[afx114]

538.com is now giving McCain a 1.9% chance to win.

Home

McCain’s chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or “Shy Tory” Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

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