OT: Estimated state budget deficit reaches $25.4 billion

[davelj]

Some budget stats to consider. Here’s the breakdown of the Big 4 for 2010/2011:

Education (K-12 & Higher Ed.): 40%
Health & Human Services: 28%
Bus., Transportation & Housing: 10%
Corrections & Rehab: 7%

That’s 85% of CA’s budget right there. So that’s where you have to cut. Everything else is just fiddling around at the edges.

The big whopper, of course, is education. Interestingly, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, instructional spending comprises just 54% of per-pupil spending in CA for K-12. The other 46% is administration. Per-pupil K-12 spending is going to be roughly $11,200 this year. That means that there’s about $6,000 of ADMINISTRATIVE expense for every K-12 student in CA. Sacramento, we have a problem. But I think I know where we can find some cuts for the budget. And it starts in the administrative bureaucracy that is the CA Dept. of Education.

I’m going to research this a bit, but I bet that the education budget for CA has increased over the last 12 years at a FAR higher rate than the sum of student population growth plus inflation. And I think I know where most of that ended up. And it ain’t in the classroom.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]

I’m going to research this a bit, but I bet that the education budget for CA has increased over the last 12 years at a FAR higher rate than the sum of student population growth plus inflation. And I think I know where most of that ended up. And it ain’t in the classroom.[/quote]

Let’s go to the tape:

1998 CA Dept. of Education budget: $22.3 bil
2010 CA Dept. of Education budget: $52.8 bil

That’s annual growth of 7.5%.

1998 CA population: 33.3 mil
2010 CA population (est.): 37.1 mil.

That’s annual growth of 0.9%. Throw in some illegal immigration and I’ll liberally grant growth of 1.5% annually over the period.

Importantly, over the last decade the two age groups contributing most to CA’s growth were 18-24 and 45-64. The school-age group of 5-17 was below CA’s average.

So, let’s take 3% inflation plus my generous 1.5% school-age population growth and – voila! – we get to 4.5% growth in expected education expenditures. But, in fact, it’s been 7.5%. That 3% spread for CA’s largest budget item is the single largest source of our current budget problems. 3% compounded over 12 years on 40% of your budget leads to big problems. Now I’m sure there are other problem areas as well, but until we address the education issue, we’re just pissing in the wind.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]

I’m going to research this a bit, but I bet that the education budget for CA has increased over the last 12 years at a FAR higher rate than the sum of student population growth plus inflation. And I think I know where most of that ended up. And it ain’t in the classroom.[/quote]

Let’s go to the tape:

1998 CA Dept. of Education budget: $22.3 bil
2010 CA Dept. of Education budget: $52.8 bil

That’s annual growth of 7.5%.

1998 CA population: 33.3 mil
2010 CA population (est.): 37.1 mil.

That’s annual growth of 0.9%. Throw in some illegal immigration and I’ll liberally grant growth of 1.5% annually over the period.

Importantly, over the last decade the two age groups contributing most to CA’s growth were 18-24 and 45-64. The school-age group of 5-17 was below CA’s average.

So, let’s take 3% inflation plus my generous 1.5% school-age population growth and – voila! – we get to 4.5% growth in expected education expenditures. But, in fact, it’s been 7.5%. That 3% spread for CA’s largest budget item is the single largest source of our current budget problems. 3% compounded over 12 years on 40% of your budget leads to big problems. Now I’m sure there are other problem areas as well, but until we address the education issue, we’re just pissing in the wind.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]

I’m going to research this a bit, but I bet that the education budget for CA has increased over the last 12 years at a FAR higher rate than the sum of student population growth plus inflation. And I think I know where most of that ended up. And it ain’t in the classroom.[/quote]

Let’s go to the tape:

1998 CA Dept. of Education budget: $22.3 bil
2010 CA Dept. of Education budget: $52.8 bil

That’s annual growth of 7.5%.

1998 CA population: 33.3 mil
2010 CA population (est.): 37.1 mil.

That’s annual growth of 0.9%. Throw in some illegal immigration and I’ll liberally grant growth of 1.5% annually over the period.

Importantly, over the last decade the two age groups contributing most to CA’s growth were 18-24 and 45-64. The school-age group of 5-17 was below CA’s average.

So, let’s take 3% inflation plus my generous 1.5% school-age population growth and – voila! – we get to 4.5% growth in expected education expenditures. But, in fact, it’s been 7.5%. That 3% spread for CA’s largest budget item is the single largest source of our current budget problems. 3% compounded over 12 years on 40% of your budget leads to big problems. Now I’m sure there are other problem areas as well, but until we address the education issue, we’re just pissing in the wind.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]

I’m going to research this a bit, but I bet that the education budget for CA has increased over the last 12 years at a FAR higher rate than the sum of student population growth plus inflation. And I think I know where most of that ended up. And it ain’t in the classroom.[/quote]

Let’s go to the tape:

1998 CA Dept. of Education budget: $22.3 bil
2010 CA Dept. of Education budget: $52.8 bil

That’s annual growth of 7.5%.

1998 CA population: 33.3 mil
2010 CA population (est.): 37.1 mil.

That’s annual growth of 0.9%. Throw in some illegal immigration and I’ll liberally grant growth of 1.5% annually over the period.

Importantly, over the last decade the two age groups contributing most to CA’s growth were 18-24 and 45-64. The school-age group of 5-17 was below CA’s average.

So, let’s take 3% inflation plus my generous 1.5% school-age population growth and – voila! – we get to 4.5% growth in expected education expenditures. But, in fact, it’s been 7.5%. That 3% spread for CA’s largest budget item is the single largest source of our current budget problems. 3% compounded over 12 years on 40% of your budget leads to big problems. Now I’m sure there are other problem areas as well, but until we address the education issue, we’re just pissing in the wind.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]

I’m going to research this a bit, but I bet that the education budget for CA has increased over the last 12 years at a FAR higher rate than the sum of student population growth plus inflation. And I think I know where most of that ended up. And it ain’t in the classroom.[/quote]

Let’s go to the tape:

1998 CA Dept. of Education budget: $22.3 bil
2010 CA Dept. of Education budget: $52.8 bil

That’s annual growth of 7.5%.

1998 CA population: 33.3 mil
2010 CA population (est.): 37.1 mil.

That’s annual growth of 0.9%. Throw in some illegal immigration and I’ll liberally grant growth of 1.5% annually over the period.

Importantly, over the last decade the two age groups contributing most to CA’s growth were 18-24 and 45-64. The school-age group of 5-17 was below CA’s average.

So, let’s take 3% inflation plus my generous 1.5% school-age population growth and – voila! – we get to 4.5% growth in expected education expenditures. But, in fact, it’s been 7.5%. That 3% spread for CA’s largest budget item is the single largest source of our current budget problems. 3% compounded over 12 years on 40% of your budget leads to big problems. Now I’m sure there are other problem areas as well, but until we address the education issue, we’re just pissing in the wind.

[EconProf]

Good points davelj. When you do your research, check out the average compensation for teachers, by state. You’ll find CA teachers are the highest paid in the nation, excepting D.C. This speaks to the power of the teachers union here. And when there are layoffs, the youngest, most enthusiastic, latest hired are laid off first, not the weak teachers in it for a pension.
You’ll also discover that Prop 13 in 1978 resulted in Sacramento taking over much of the financing of schools, and with that funding went the power to dictate much of what happens in local schools. Centralizing power like that almost always creates waste and inefficiency since the local school board know better their own needs. They must accept state dictates and are often forced into programs and hiring needs that don’t directly benefit classroom.

[EconProf]

Good points davelj. When you do your research, check out the average compensation for teachers, by state. You’ll find CA teachers are the highest paid in the nation, excepting D.C. This speaks to the power of the teachers union here. And when there are layoffs, the youngest, most enthusiastic, latest hired are laid off first, not the weak teachers in it for a pension.
You’ll also discover that Prop 13 in 1978 resulted in Sacramento taking over much of the financing of schools, and with that funding went the power to dictate much of what happens in local schools. Centralizing power like that almost always creates waste and inefficiency since the local school board know better their own needs. They must accept state dictates and are often forced into programs and hiring needs that don’t directly benefit classroom.

[EconProf]

Good points davelj. When you do your research, check out the average compensation for teachers, by state. You’ll find CA teachers are the highest paid in the nation, excepting D.C. This speaks to the power of the teachers union here. And when there are layoffs, the youngest, most enthusiastic, latest hired are laid off first, not the weak teachers in it for a pension.
You’ll also discover that Prop 13 in 1978 resulted in Sacramento taking over much of the financing of schools, and with that funding went the power to dictate much of what happens in local schools. Centralizing power like that almost always creates waste and inefficiency since the local school board know better their own needs. They must accept state dictates and are often forced into programs and hiring needs that don’t directly benefit classroom.

[EconProf]

Good points davelj. When you do your research, check out the average compensation for teachers, by state. You’ll find CA teachers are the highest paid in the nation, excepting D.C. This speaks to the power of the teachers union here. And when there are layoffs, the youngest, most enthusiastic, latest hired are laid off first, not the weak teachers in it for a pension.
You’ll also discover that Prop 13 in 1978 resulted in Sacramento taking over much of the financing of schools, and with that funding went the power to dictate much of what happens in local schools. Centralizing power like that almost always creates waste and inefficiency since the local school board know better their own needs. They must accept state dictates and are often forced into programs and hiring needs that don’t directly benefit classroom.

[EconProf]

Good points davelj. When you do your research, check out the average compensation for teachers, by state. You’ll find CA teachers are the highest paid in the nation, excepting D.C. This speaks to the power of the teachers union here. And when there are layoffs, the youngest, most enthusiastic, latest hired are laid off first, not the weak teachers in it for a pension.
You’ll also discover that Prop 13 in 1978 resulted in Sacramento taking over much of the financing of schools, and with that funding went the power to dictate much of what happens in local schools. Centralizing power like that almost always creates waste and inefficiency since the local school board know better their own needs. They must accept state dictates and are often forced into programs and hiring needs that don’t directly benefit classroom.

[NotCranky]

This backlash against spoiled rotten, fraud perpetuating, protected classes of workers is part of every recession.They are bailed out through it, as much as wall street is. It will go away if there is recovery, if not, perhaps justice will finally start to prevail.

[NotCranky]

This backlash against spoiled rotten, fraud perpetuating, protected classes of workers is part of every recession.They are bailed out through it, as much as wall street is. It will go away if there is recovery, if not, perhaps justice will finally start to prevail.

[NotCranky]

This backlash against spoiled rotten, fraud perpetuating, protected classes of workers is part of every recession.They are bailed out through it, as much as wall street is. It will go away if there is recovery, if not, perhaps justice will finally start to prevail.

[NotCranky]

This backlash against spoiled rotten, fraud perpetuating, protected classes of workers is part of every recession.They are bailed out through it, as much as wall street is. It will go away if there is recovery, if not, perhaps justice will finally start to prevail.

[Author]

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