if there is a large blue wave coming, how come, as reported by CNN, the gallop poll is saying GOP holds a 45% favorability rating and Democrats hold a 44%?
I would think if there is a large blue wave that it wouldn’t look this way. I still say the average American thinks the economy is better and that is the most important thing.
what I am more interested in is in CA…do we finally have enough independents frustrated that they will swing vote and break the super majority. I think so, but we will see.
if there is a large blue wave coming, how come, as reported by CNN, the gallop poll is saying GOP holds a 45% favorability rating and Democrats hold a 44%?
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The democrats (from what I’ve read) need to hold the 194 house seats they have and flip 24 republican seats to gain a majority in the house. I would call that a blue wave.
If you don’t think that’s going to happen (democrats gaining a majority in the house), and you want to lay a thousand dollars on your prediction, pm me.
I consider a blue wave would mean a slaughtering of the GOP in both the House and Senate. I don’t doubt the House might change, and that’s probably a good thing since we would have some checks and balances back in the federal government. But I don’t see a complete democrat landslide either. Maybe we mean different things by “wave”….
By that definition, we might have a purple “wave” run through California with the Democrats losing a supermajority, especially with a lot of the independents frustrated with things here….that too would be a good thing, because again we would have some system of checks and balances.
[quote=outtamojo]If anything kills the blue wave it will be overconfidence and staying home because all the polls say it’s in the bag.[/quote]
So true. Democrats are not good at turnout even though they always win the popular vote. Our political system is rigged towards giving more representation to retrograde rural values.
The blue wave I’d like to see is Texas.
After Texas turns blue all the rich states will be blue and the poor states red. As it is, all the rich metros are blue already. That should tell us something.
I predict Heidi Heitkamp loses and Beto wins in Texas. We will see the continuing reorder of politics based on rural vs urban. As the big city suburbs become more urban, they will turn blue.
[quote=FlyerInHi]I predict Heidi Heitkamp loses and Beto wins in Texas. We will see the continuing reorder of politics based on rural vs urban. As the big city suburbs become more urban, they will turn blue.[/quote]
I’d be very surprised if Beto wins. Ecstatic, but surprised. I’ll be canvassing for him in Austin later this month while I visit my sister there. Go Beto!
