ORANGE COUNTY HIGH END gets WHACKED !!!

[SD Realtor]

FSD – Correct, as you can see in my post, I used the word average which equates to the mean and NOT the median.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

FSD – Correct, as you can see in my post, I used the word average which equates to the mean and NOT the median.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

ls2008
You dont have to dare me, just ask nicely and I’ll be happy to oblige you. I am not spinning anything either. I presented facts that show VOLUME is not drying up. Pricing is defintely down from the peak and I have never said anything to contrary on this blog. But supply and demand are giving the appearance of balancing out along Prime Coastal SD areas. Volume not declining and inventory is DOWN which does not bode well for the UberBear sentiment. Here are your 2004 and 2005 numbers. Don’t need to spin anything, make your own inferences.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1200 so far (late reporters and todays closings should push it over 1300 if not more)

[sdrealtor]

ls2008
You dont have to dare me, just ask nicely and I’ll be happy to oblige you. I am not spinning anything either. I presented facts that show VOLUME is not drying up. Pricing is defintely down from the peak and I have never said anything to contrary on this blog. But supply and demand are giving the appearance of balancing out along Prime Coastal SD areas. Volume not declining and inventory is DOWN which does not bode well for the UberBear sentiment. Here are your 2004 and 2005 numbers. Don’t need to spin anything, make your own inferences.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1200 so far (late reporters and todays closings should push it over 1300 if not more)

[latesummer2008]

Volume Down 20% and obviously dropping. And pricing ? Why don’t you give us those numbers. $/sqft Year over Year would be even better. I suspect 20% down would be a conservative guess.

And that is balancing? How do you figure?

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Volume Down 20% and obviously dropping. And pricing ? Why don’t you give us those numbers. $/sqft Year over Year would be even better. I suspect 20% down would be a conservative guess.

And that is balancing? How do you figure?

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[sdrealtor]

You are an idiot! I dont know why I even bother but here goes. For a science teacher you can’t even handle basic math. I said the total would reach around 1300. That isnt dropping it is an increase over last year. Its a decrease in a volume of 9% from 2005 and 12% from 2004. Face it, you are dead wrong. There is no interpretation necessary.

You never asked for pricing. But here goes anyway. There is no way for me to calculate median prices across this data as the MLS system doesnt support that but I can provide the average price numbers. I also provided avg sq ft which is available as well. It’s the best we got.

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,701 sq ft $1,206,357 ($447/sq ft)

It is important to note that $/sq ft typically decreases as the size of the house goes up because there are many major fixed costs that arent impacted by size (land, 1 kitchen, 1 HVAC system, 1 electrical system, 1 approval/permit process etc.)

So we have 2007 price/sq ft equal to 2005. If you consider its a bigger avg size house it actually went up a little and is much higher than 2004. We see a 3% decline since last year in pricing.

Volume is up from last year, inventory is down from last year, prices are slowly declining. That is what I call the appearance of balancing. Where we go from here is anyone’s guess but your wild claims are just plain wrong at this time.

[sdrealtor]

You are an idiot! I dont know why I even bother but here goes. For a science teacher you can’t even handle basic math. I said the total would reach around 1300. That isnt dropping it is an increase over last year. Its a decrease in a volume of 9% from 2005 and 12% from 2004. Face it, you are dead wrong. There is no interpretation necessary.

You never asked for pricing. But here goes anyway. There is no way for me to calculate median prices across this data as the MLS system doesnt support that but I can provide the average price numbers. I also provided avg sq ft which is available as well. It’s the best we got.

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,701 sq ft $1,206,357 ($447/sq ft)

It is important to note that $/sq ft typically decreases as the size of the house goes up because there are many major fixed costs that arent impacted by size (land, 1 kitchen, 1 HVAC system, 1 electrical system, 1 approval/permit process etc.)

So we have 2007 price/sq ft equal to 2005. If you consider its a bigger avg size house it actually went up a little and is much higher than 2004. We see a 3% decline since last year in pricing.

Volume is up from last year, inventory is down from last year, prices are slowly declining. That is what I call the appearance of balancing. Where we go from here is anyone’s guess but your wild claims are just plain wrong at this time.

[latesummer2008]

Should and Would don’t quite cut it in my book. 1200 closings is 1200 until you have actual numbers. Prices declining and Volume dropping from the peak of a bubble.

I wonder what comes next?

No need to get all excited sdrealtor. Is the market a little tough right now?

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Should and Would don’t quite cut it in my book. 1200 closings is 1200 until you have actual numbers. Prices declining and Volume dropping from the peak of a bubble.

I wonder what comes next?

No need to get all excited sdrealtor. Is the market a little tough right now?

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

This ought to bring up the average price in La Jolla for May.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070531/news_1b31sale.html

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

This ought to bring up the average price in La Jolla for May.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070531/news_1b31sale.html

[cyphire]

I’m living here in La Jolla (renting – sold my house in North County last December)…

My wife and I constantly are looking at the homes for sale here in La Jolla. It’s a weird market. It can’t be looked at easily as it is VERY segmented… If it is a great property, big dollars (over 3M$) it’s a whole other ball game – has very, very little to do with the RE bubble. These homes are purchased by older people, wealthy people, people who have made huge money during the current administration. These people are not working 9-5 for a company and trying to handle a mortgage, their purchases have nothing to do with real estate values or anticipated values. They buy because they can, and if the house goes up or down in price it is not going to change their lives.

If the price is 2.5M or under, prices have come down dramatically, they are taking longer to sell, and the vast majority of the houses are pretty terrible. It’s hard to purchase a tiny house on a busy road for a millon dollars. Just not worth it. Even the realtors have a tough time talking about how wonderful the properties are at these prices – no level of salesmanship can sell a crappy 1950-70’s house for 1.3-2 million dollars while the short, medium and long term risk for appreciation is so significant.

All the houses here in La Jolla with flaws (too small, under renovated, over renovated, too near noise, too near construction, too expensive, smelly, mouldy, etc.) aren’t selling… they are sitting on the market or are being taken off the market. As the only houses which still sell easily are ones which are in the minority (the nice houses, near nice houses, renovated, real ocean views), this keeps prices for La Jolla high, but isn’t real world when you look at the vast majority of houses which don’t or can’t sell.

If you want a $3M – $25M property you really don’t care about bubbles!!! A neighbor is in the building business – he paid $15M for a house which was on the market for a long time at $25M. This isn’t reality for most people…

The only way to really see what is happening is to look at houses which are on the market, have been taken off the market, and look at strata (houses under 1200 ft, under 2000 feet, under 2500 feet, over 3000 feet), and look at by specific neighborhood. Birdrock is nothing like the summit, Upper hermosa isn’t the same as on the beach… Look within strata and you will see some massive changes in both directions!

—

Personal note: We almost closed on a 1.8M house here which would have been 1.2M in Carmel Valley, 600K in the East County, or $325K anywhere in the USA… When we decided that it would be insane to take that level of risk based on what the market is doing – I thought the realtor would was going to have a heart attack… It’s tough out there right now!

p.s. Some houses which were renovated and were trying to be flipped are coming on as rentals, there is a lot of both fear and desperation in this town, but not with the folks overlooking the water in private compounds….

[cyphire]

I’m living here in La Jolla (renting – sold my house in North County last December)…

My wife and I constantly are looking at the homes for sale here in La Jolla. It’s a weird market. It can’t be looked at easily as it is VERY segmented… If it is a great property, big dollars (over 3M$) it’s a whole other ball game – has very, very little to do with the RE bubble. These homes are purchased by older people, wealthy people, people who have made huge money during the current administration. These people are not working 9-5 for a company and trying to handle a mortgage, their purchases have nothing to do with real estate values or anticipated values. They buy because they can, and if the house goes up or down in price it is not going to change their lives.

If the price is 2.5M or under, prices have come down dramatically, they are taking longer to sell, and the vast majority of the houses are pretty terrible. It’s hard to purchase a tiny house on a busy road for a millon dollars. Just not worth it. Even the realtors have a tough time talking about how wonderful the properties are at these prices – no level of salesmanship can sell a crappy 1950-70’s house for 1.3-2 million dollars while the short, medium and long term risk for appreciation is so significant.

All the houses here in La Jolla with flaws (too small, under renovated, over renovated, too near noise, too near construction, too expensive, smelly, mouldy, etc.) aren’t selling… they are sitting on the market or are being taken off the market. As the only houses which still sell easily are ones which are in the minority (the nice houses, near nice houses, renovated, real ocean views), this keeps prices for La Jolla high, but isn’t real world when you look at the vast majority of houses which don’t or can’t sell.

If you want a $3M – $25M property you really don’t care about bubbles!!! A neighbor is in the building business – he paid $15M for a house which was on the market for a long time at $25M. This isn’t reality for most people…

The only way to really see what is happening is to look at houses which are on the market, have been taken off the market, and look at strata (houses under 1200 ft, under 2000 feet, under 2500 feet, over 3000 feet), and look at by specific neighborhood. Birdrock is nothing like the summit, Upper hermosa isn’t the same as on the beach… Look within strata and you will see some massive changes in both directions!

—

Personal note: We almost closed on a 1.8M house here which would have been 1.2M in Carmel Valley, 600K in the East County, or $325K anywhere in the USA… When we decided that it would be insane to take that level of risk based on what the market is doing – I thought the realtor would was going to have a heart attack… It’s tough out there right now!

p.s. Some houses which were renovated and were trying to be flipped are coming on as rentals, there is a lot of both fear and desperation in this town, but not with the folks overlooking the water in private compounds….

[Bugs]

Since we’re talking about the high dollar properties…

There have been a total of 57 homes sold all through San Diego county over the last year for $5,000,000 or more. That includes Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, La Jolla, the ranches out in the east county, etc..

During the same time period there were over 18,500 other SFR sales through the MLS throughout the County. That doesn’t include the condos.

[Author]

Posts