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NotCranky.
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May 30, 2007 at 8:41 AM #55518May 30, 2007 at 9:48 AM #55519
DaCounselor
Participant“Perhaps your worried? I suppose you think the market is going up, Da Counselor?
What is your prediction for this market, and, please state the facts to back it up…”
_________________________My prediction for “this market” (what that means, I have no idea) is irrelevant. The issue at hand is that you have started a thread with a screaming, all-caps headline that the sky is falling on high-end properties in OC, and you have supported it with nothing more than a month’s worth of low-volume median data from 6 zip codes. I’m calling the support for your screaming headline flimsy. You’re the one trying to sell your headline, so you’re the one who needs to bring data, not me.
May 30, 2007 at 9:48 AM #55537Participant“Perhaps your worried? I suppose you think the market is going up, Da Counselor?
What is your prediction for this market, and, please state the facts to back it up…”
_________________________My prediction for “this market” (what that means, I have no idea) is irrelevant. The issue at hand is that you have started a thread with a screaming, all-caps headline that the sky is falling on high-end properties in OC, and you have supported it with nothing more than a month’s worth of low-volume median data from 6 zip codes. I’m calling the support for your screaming headline flimsy. You’re the one trying to sell your headline, so you’re the one who needs to bring data, not me.
May 30, 2007 at 3:17 PM #55564Anonymous
GuestI have lived in CDM since 1993. Got great price for my place (30% below 1990 comps)and it’s up 300% since then, taking into account about 10% drop in last year. Don’t be surprised if you see 30-40% declines from here, starting in the $2.5M price ranges and up over the next 3-4 years. Sales are drying up here fast.
May 30, 2007 at 3:17 PM #55583GuestI have lived in CDM since 1993. Got great price for my place (30% below 1990 comps)and it’s up 300% since then, taking into account about 10% drop in last year. Don’t be surprised if you see 30-40% declines from here, starting in the $2.5M price ranges and up over the next 3-4 years. Sales are drying up here fast.
May 30, 2007 at 3:44 PM #55567PerryChase
ParticipantThe median information presented in this thread in relevant in that it’s the information reported by the press. That’s affects the general perception of where the market is heading.
The media focuses on median figures so it’s only fair that market watchers discuss them — whether to refute the figures are not indicative of existing market conditions because the median lags the market, or to point out that a downward median is finally indicating a worsening situation. I don’t see any inconsistency here.
May 30, 2007 at 3:44 PM #55585ParticipantThe median information presented in this thread in relevant in that it’s the information reported by the press. That’s affects the general perception of where the market is heading.
The media focuses on median figures so it’s only fair that market watchers discuss them — whether to refute the figures are not indicative of existing market conditions because the median lags the market, or to point out that a downward median is finally indicating a worsening situation. I don’t see any inconsistency here.
May 30, 2007 at 4:16 PM #55572latesummer2008
Participant40-50% of peak prices is possible for High End areas in Orange County (As carsonnv just stated)and other Southern California Counties. If you look at any major housing index (Case-Schiller) they are overwhelmingly NEGATIVE now. Da Counselor, you need to come with Da Numbers, rather than, just trying to discount others observations. You can say whatever you want, but need to back it up. I have given you last months numbers. Look at them and show me something different, or your just merely talking out the side of your _______.
But the real issue here is, the direction of prices, which doesn’t appear to be, up. And, with the amount of downside risk, I don’t see any people rushing into the market anymore.
May 30, 2007 at 4:16 PM #55591Participant40-50% of peak prices is possible for High End areas in Orange County (As carsonnv just stated)and other Southern California Counties. If you look at any major housing index (Case-Schiller) they are overwhelmingly NEGATIVE now. Da Counselor, you need to come with Da Numbers, rather than, just trying to discount others observations. You can say whatever you want, but need to back it up. I have given you last months numbers. Look at them and show me something different, or your just merely talking out the side of your _______.
But the real issue here is, the direction of prices, which doesn’t appear to be, up. And, with the amount of downside risk, I don’t see any people rushing into the market anymore.
May 30, 2007 at 4:28 PM #55574(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantPerry – The zip code specific monthly median can vary by 20% or more from month to month. This is called statistical noise. Drawing a conclusion from a single monthly number is dangerous.
Some examples from the same data source cited above:
April 2007 YOY median Price ChangesBay Park (92110) UP 26.0%
Carlsbad (92008) UP 9.8%
Cardiff (92007) UP 31.6%
Del Mar (92014) UP 20.2%
Ocean Beach (92107) UP 2.5%
Point Loma (92106) UP 9.5%Knuckle-headed conclusion :
Wow ! All those places near the coast that I want to live in have gone up.May 30, 2007 at 4:28 PM #55593ParticipantPerry – The zip code specific monthly median can vary by 20% or more from month to month. This is called statistical noise. Drawing a conclusion from a single monthly number is dangerous.
Some examples from the same data source cited above:
April 2007 YOY median Price ChangesBay Park (92110) UP 26.0%
Carlsbad (92008) UP 9.8%
Cardiff (92007) UP 31.6%
Del Mar (92014) UP 20.2%
Ocean Beach (92107) UP 2.5%
Point Loma (92106) UP 9.5%Knuckle-headed conclusion :
Wow ! All those places near the coast that I want to live in have gone up.May 30, 2007 at 4:49 PM #55578IONEGARM
Participantlatesummer2008,
You constantly try to sensationalize trivial items to reinforce the fact that you believe the market is going down.
The market is going down, gradually deflating. Not nearly as fast as some want or predicted but it is clear it will be going down for quite some time. Being prone to hyperbole and half truths isn’t really any way of getting a point across.
Looking at any one month of any one zip code is just silly/stupid.
May 30, 2007 at 4:49 PM #55597Participantlatesummer2008,
You constantly try to sensationalize trivial items to reinforce the fact that you believe the market is going down.
The market is going down, gradually deflating. Not nearly as fast as some want or predicted but it is clear it will be going down for quite some time. Being prone to hyperbole and half truths isn’t really any way of getting a point across.
Looking at any one month of any one zip code is just silly/stupid.
May 30, 2007 at 4:59 PM #55582GuestPerry may have silly political views, but, on real estate, he’s no knucklehead.
FSD and IONEGARM (what does that ‘handle’ mean?), please do point out someone who said ‘Wow, better get in now, ’cause median prices are up this month!’
Now, to raise FSD’s blood pressure: prices are falling, and fast, in La Jolla!
[img_assist|nid=3494|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]
May 30, 2007 at 4:59 PM #55601GuestPerry may have silly political views, but, on real estate, he’s no knucklehead.
FSD and IONEGARM (what does that ‘handle’ mean?), please do point out someone who said ‘Wow, better get in now, ’cause median prices are up this month!’
Now, to raise FSD’s blood pressure: prices are falling, and fast, in La Jolla!
[img_assist|nid=3494|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]
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