Now start Predictions for 2009

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I predict that I will resurrect my blog where I will lay out my shorter term market predictions as time goes on. It is much easier in my view to predict the next few months than it is the next few years. I will attempt to do that. For those that have any interest it is:

http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com

I wish everyone in here a great and prosperous 2009.

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[CAwireman]

I like sdr’s prediction of interest rates that stay below 5% throughout 2009….

Okay, my predictions – significant evidence of a mass or moderate population out migration from Southern California.

Niether new births or illegal immigration will negate the migration.

The key forces at work – massive loss of jobs, continued loss of homes, growth in credit card debt, increase in crime rate and gang activity.
Loss of demand for services, including invisible cash-only jobs like landscaping, pool maintenance, in-home childcare provided by non-citizen workforce.

Contibuting factors – possibly – fires, earthquakes, heavy rains – that could accelerate the out migration.

Like the 1990’s outpouring, people who’ve moved to California for a better life, will figure out that they can’t make a go of it and will head back to hometown USA. Non-citizen workers will think twice about braving a border crossing to attempt to find work in a shrinking US economy. Non-citizens here who can’t find work may return home.

Higher end home prices in nice San Diego zipcodes will finally succumb to downward pressure. 15% to 20% losses in as yet teflon areas like CV.

[CAwireman]

I like sdr’s prediction of interest rates that stay below 5% throughout 2009….

Okay, my predictions – significant evidence of a mass or moderate population out migration from Southern California.

Niether new births or illegal immigration will negate the migration.

The key forces at work – massive loss of jobs, continued loss of homes, growth in credit card debt, increase in crime rate and gang activity.
Loss of demand for services, including invisible cash-only jobs like landscaping, pool maintenance, in-home childcare provided by non-citizen workforce.

Contibuting factors – possibly – fires, earthquakes, heavy rains – that could accelerate the out migration.

Like the 1990’s outpouring, people who’ve moved to California for a better life, will figure out that they can’t make a go of it and will head back to hometown USA. Non-citizen workers will think twice about braving a border crossing to attempt to find work in a shrinking US economy. Non-citizens here who can’t find work may return home.

Higher end home prices in nice San Diego zipcodes will finally succumb to downward pressure. 15% to 20% losses in as yet teflon areas like CV.

[CAwireman]

I like sdr’s prediction of interest rates that stay below 5% throughout 2009….

Okay, my predictions – significant evidence of a mass or moderate population out migration from Southern California.

Niether new births or illegal immigration will negate the migration.

The key forces at work – massive loss of jobs, continued loss of homes, growth in credit card debt, increase in crime rate and gang activity.
Loss of demand for services, including invisible cash-only jobs like landscaping, pool maintenance, in-home childcare provided by non-citizen workforce.

Contibuting factors – possibly – fires, earthquakes, heavy rains – that could accelerate the out migration.

Like the 1990’s outpouring, people who’ve moved to California for a better life, will figure out that they can’t make a go of it and will head back to hometown USA. Non-citizen workers will think twice about braving a border crossing to attempt to find work in a shrinking US economy. Non-citizens here who can’t find work may return home.

Higher end home prices in nice San Diego zipcodes will finally succumb to downward pressure. 15% to 20% losses in as yet teflon areas like CV.

[CAwireman]

I like sdr’s prediction of interest rates that stay below 5% throughout 2009….

Okay, my predictions – significant evidence of a mass or moderate population out migration from Southern California.

Niether new births or illegal immigration will negate the migration.

The key forces at work – massive loss of jobs, continued loss of homes, growth in credit card debt, increase in crime rate and gang activity.
Loss of demand for services, including invisible cash-only jobs like landscaping, pool maintenance, in-home childcare provided by non-citizen workforce.

Contibuting factors – possibly – fires, earthquakes, heavy rains – that could accelerate the out migration.

Like the 1990’s outpouring, people who’ve moved to California for a better life, will figure out that they can’t make a go of it and will head back to hometown USA. Non-citizen workers will think twice about braving a border crossing to attempt to find work in a shrinking US economy. Non-citizens here who can’t find work may return home.

Higher end home prices in nice San Diego zipcodes will finally succumb to downward pressure. 15% to 20% losses in as yet teflon areas like CV.

[CAwireman]

I like sdr’s prediction of interest rates that stay below 5% throughout 2009….

Okay, my predictions – significant evidence of a mass or moderate population out migration from Southern California.

Niether new births or illegal immigration will negate the migration.

The key forces at work – massive loss of jobs, continued loss of homes, growth in credit card debt, increase in crime rate and gang activity.
Loss of demand for services, including invisible cash-only jobs like landscaping, pool maintenance, in-home childcare provided by non-citizen workforce.

Contibuting factors – possibly – fires, earthquakes, heavy rains – that could accelerate the out migration.

Like the 1990’s outpouring, people who’ve moved to California for a better life, will figure out that they can’t make a go of it and will head back to hometown USA. Non-citizen workers will think twice about braving a border crossing to attempt to find work in a shrinking US economy. Non-citizens here who can’t find work may return home.

Higher end home prices in nice San Diego zipcodes will finally succumb to downward pressure. 15% to 20% losses in as yet teflon areas like CV.

[5yearwaiter]

Higgy – your predictions are really making some awareness regarding the crime, loss of demand services. One may not even still forget these fires that made two big events with in 5 years of cycle. Above all still folks want to LIVE !! and also LEAVE !! funny though 🙂

[5yearwaiter]

Higgy – your predictions are really making some awareness regarding the crime, loss of demand services. One may not even still forget these fires that made two big events with in 5 years of cycle. Above all still folks want to LIVE !! and also LEAVE !! funny though 🙂

[5yearwaiter]

Higgy – your predictions are really making some awareness regarding the crime, loss of demand services. One may not even still forget these fires that made two big events with in 5 years of cycle. Above all still folks want to LIVE !! and also LEAVE !! funny though 🙂

[5yearwaiter]

Higgy – your predictions are really making some awareness regarding the crime, loss of demand services. One may not even still forget these fires that made two big events with in 5 years of cycle. Above all still folks want to LIVE !! and also LEAVE !! funny though 🙂

[Author]

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