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sdrealtor.
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April 20, 2022 at 7:55 AM #825129April 20, 2022 at 11:15 PM #825136
flyer
ParticipantIt is interesting to see the unique caliber of some of the homes coming on the market. Can’t imagine selling any of our properties with all of the benefits to us now, and then to our kids, going forward, but I imagine the sellers have their reasons.
So many articles now trying to second guess the future of the housing market, per:
San Diego is extraordinary, so the results may differ from other locations in the country. Guess we’ll all just have to stay tuned.
April 21, 2022 at 1:00 PM #825138sdrealtor
Participant[quote=ncsd760]Logging in to say I’m having the experiences of watching houses I tracked at the bottom of the market resell/list for much higher prices. One of the Centex Plan 2 in La Costa Oaks just listed for 2.7 — sold at the bottom of the market for 766k which was the lowest sale of this floorplan. It’s at the end of the street where Sitio Lima was extended to connect with Arterro. The one that went for 3.1 was a much better lot though this will be a solid ROI as well since they didn’t do anything to the backyard.
The new owners put in nice wood floors and dolled up the kitchen somewhat but the bathroom tiles are all original ceramic with original vanities. The house has some road noise and power line views since the transmission towers are across the street and the landscaping is average.[/quote]
I could be proven wrong but think they are starting too high. Better to start lower and have compettive bidding. This could sit for a bit but what do I know
April 21, 2022 at 3:03 PM #825140limkotir
Participant[quote=flyer]It is interesting to see the unique caliber of some of the homes coming on the market. Can’t imagine selling any of our properties with all of the benefits to us now, and then to our kids, going forward, but I imagine the sellers have their reasons.
So many articles now trying to second guess the future of the housing market, per:
San Diego is extraordinary, so the results may differ from other locations in the country. Guess we’ll all just have to stay tuned.[/quote]
I mean, at some point, you have to cash out and enjoy life a bit, right?
“If I don’t fly first class with my savings, my kids will…”
Kinda sorta interesting read for those have the energy or time – The Nothingness of Money:
April 21, 2022 at 4:35 PM #825142ParticipantSee below
April 21, 2022 at 4:40 PM #825143Participant[quote=limkotir][quote=flyer]It is interesting to see the unique caliber of some of the homes coming on the market. Can’t imagine selling any of our properties with all of the benefits to us now, and then to our kids, going forward, but I imagine the sellers have their reasons.
So many articles now trying to second guess the future of the housing market, per:
San Diego is extraordinary, so the results may differ from other locations in the country. Guess we’ll all just have to stay tuned.[/quote]
I mean, at some point, you have to cash out and enjoy life a bit, right?
“If I don’t fly first class with my savings, my kids will…”
Kinda sorta interesting read for those have the energy or time – The Nothingness of Money:
https://moretothat.com/the-nothingness-of-money/%5B/quote%5DDefinitely agree. Imo, money only helps us live the lives we want to live during the short time we all have on earth, and to help others, including those we love, do the same.
Believe me, we aren’t sacrificing our lifestyle for our kids, so that’s not an issue. We’re just glad to help them in any way we can by keeping properties in the family, etc.
April 27, 2022 at 2:06 PM #825249ParticipantDay of golf but ran the numbers and even in the face of what feels like slowing demand the market here tightened.
New listings 20 (23) – back up as we get past tax season and head to May
New Pendings of 21 (35) – pretty much in line with most of this year but well below last year with limited choices. If we dont get more inventory its gonna be tough to hit 30+ a week
Thats -1
Closed sales at 25 –
Total houses for sale 42 (48) with median of $2.53M ($1.997M)
Looks like atypo last week as my spreadheet shows 44 last week and inventory down by 2 week over week. I know its rising in places like Oceanside, Vista and Escondido but not here. That could change but it hasnt yet.
I just did a quick check of what I consider the bread and butter house around here which is a relatively affordable 4BR over 2000 sq ft. I chuckled when I realized I set the limit at $2M. At the moment there are 5 of them with the lowest at 1.6M and 2 at 1.99M (at least one of which will sell over $2M). There are 5 in coming soon status which is about normal.
Next week is when we typically see the beginning of the influx of relo buyers and the shelves are pretty bare. Hoping there’s a bunch of inventory coming later this week and next.
There is no question demand has slowed but there is no question that it still far outweighs supply here. Here’s hoping we start seeing 30-40 a week soon
A few notable closed sales
Listed at $6.995M this closed for $7.65M. A bidding war for a $7M house? Really?
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1540-Gascony-Rd-92024/unit-1/home/4062911
New record for the hood. This is a nicely remodeled home but at most slightly above average for the actual lot/location and model as compared to the hood. Wonder how much higher one of the cherries could go?
Update: this home sold for $600K more than it sold 10 months ago. The remodel was done by prior owners not these sellers.
Update 2; It was ALL CASH
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7902-Vista-Palma-92009/home/6389654
An expanded and remodelled twinhome (now 3/2 1,177 sq ft originally 2/1 827 sq ft) in what was once a 55+ community known locally as Geritol Hill. Its a beauty for what it is but $1.5M?
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/220-Coneflower-St-92024/home/4097725
April 27, 2022 at 2:54 PM #825272DaCounselor
ParticipantA few months ago we talked about maybe seeing a spring close around $2.5 mil on a big boy 3500 sq. ft on Camino Serbal, and we end up getting one on sub 2800 sq. ft. at $2.44 mil. Who built that, Centex? All cash. Why the quick turnaround from last year’s sale?
Now it feels like $2.75-$3 mil for a big one on Serbal is in the cards before the end of the summer.
April 27, 2022 at 2:59 PM #825273Participant[quote=DaCounselor]A few months ago we talked about maybe seeing a spring close around $2.5 mil on a big boy 3500 sq. ft on Camino Serbal, and we end up getting one on sub 2800 sq. ft. at $2.44 mil. Who built that, Centex? All cash. Why the quick turnaround from last year’s sale?
Now it feels like $2.75-$3 mil for a big one on Serbal is in the cards before the end of the summer.[/quote]
That’s Centex Plan 4. No idea why they left but they walked with bank
Speaking to some other agent friends they felt for some of the best homes in LCV Mid 3’s were possible. I was flabbergasted but they do as much here as anyone. They shake their heads as much as we do
April 27, 2022 at 4:18 PM #825274Participant$3.5ish mil for the top end? Sure why not. How can I dispute that thought at this point LOL.
April 28, 2022 at 8:34 AM #825279ncsd760
ParticipantHonestly if the higher-end Starboard/Colrich/Centex in LCO are fetching low 3s I don’t see why a dolled up Shelbourne/Davidson on Camino Serbal wouldn’t be able to reach the same. LCO is really only 2-3 years newer than LCV (unless we’re talking about Oaks North).
However, I have a personal vendetta against the bigger KHov houses in LCV but I doubt any of the newbies moving in even care about builders. Does that stuff even matter these days? I feel old.
April 28, 2022 at 8:59 AM #825280profhoff
ParticipantAnother eye-popper. Here’s a flip on Eolus in Leucadia listing at nearly $2000/sq ft. $4m for a small, tight house basically on the freeway. But hey, nice outdoor space…
April 28, 2022 at 9:58 AM #825282Participant[quote=profhoff]Another eye-popper. Here’s a flip on Eolus in Leucadia listing at nearly $2000/sq ft. $4m for a small, tight house basically on the freeway. But hey, nice outdoor space…
I think Eolus is fine, its Orpheus thats the problem child. Over the years Ive seen homes and lots sit and struggle on Orpheus. This one should be fine and sell relatively quickly
April 28, 2022 at 12:04 PM #825281Participant[quote=ncsd760]Honestly if the higher-end Starboard/Colrich/Centex in LCO are fetching low 3s I don’t see why a dolled up Shelbourne/Davidson on Camino Serbal wouldn’t be able to reach the same. LCO is really only 2-3 years newer than LCV (unless we’re talking about Oaks North).
However, I have a personal vendetta against the bigger KHov houses in LCV but I doubt any of the newbies moving in even care about builders. Does that stuff even matter these days? I feel old.[/quote]
And I think LCV is a superior location, with generally better lots and an overall nicer community feel than LCO. When I bought mine I knew it was a crappy build but at the same time beleived that over time no one would care about the builders anymore which they dont. I thought it would come down to BR/BA count and sq footage plus lot so I grabbed a 5 BR on a big lot. When we bought our homes they were probably 50% land value and now its gotta be 70% so that was a good call.
I also knew that they stopped building around here for the most part in the late 80’s when homes were rarely much more than 2200 to 2400 sq ft until they started bulding again in the late 90’s. I thought move up sized homes between 2500 and 3000 sq ft would fare very well. That is the perfect size to get everything you need into a 4 BR without being squeezed. Anything larger and you are just making rooms bigger and adding more hallway/non-usable space.
Then we had the bubble and everything being built was 3500 to 5000 sq ft. If you look around the area there are very few homes between 2500 and 3000. Most are smaller/older or bigger/newer. LCV is full of the perfect mid market sized home for the area in a great location so it wil always have a relative premium
Sorry for the sidetrack but to answer your question, no one except us original folks care aout the builders anymore. And Im from Jersey so I know KHOV is basically KB on the east coast. They acquired a higher end builder out here and created a new identity for themselves here but I suspect its the same old KHOV
May 3, 2022 at 8:14 PM #825368ParticipantNew listings 26 (26) – back up as we head to May
New Pendings of 21 (33) – pretty much in line with most of this year but it feels a little light. We have had a bunch of new listings hit recently and this should be up a fair amount next week unless the winds have shifted strongly which is a possibility
Thats +5
Closed sales at 22 –
Total houses for sale 42 (57) with median of $2.45M ($1.86M)
We got more inventory I was hoping for and pendings still feel light. With mutliple offers it can take longer to come to agreement but its feels like more than that. I think this is a bellweather week coming up. I can feel the cooling and think we will see further softening. But Im gonna let the market decide that one way or another. My feeling is it will and then the question will be how will sellers respond if it does. Will they lower prices or stand firm? Will they take less or take it off the market?
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