North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

ran some numbers to get a peek at what is coming. the answer looks like its gonna be not more inventory

[DaCounselor]

[quote=sdrealtor]Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.[/quote]

Ok so something on Camino Serbal is going to close at $2 mil now? Wait that’s too low, let’s say $2.25 mil. But why stop there, how about we say $2.5 mil before the year is up? Come to think of it, let’s go with $2.75 mil. Actually, let’s just make it a nice even $3 mil, wtf.

I’m going to need a thesaurus to come up with more adjectives to describe this market.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=DaCounselor][quote=sdrealtor]Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.[/quote]

Ok so something on Camino Serbal is going to close at $2 mil now? Wait that’s too low, let’s say $2.25 mil. But why stop there, how about we say $2.5 mil before the year is up? Come to think of it, let’s go with $2.75 mil. Actually, let’s just make it a nice even $3 mil, wtf.

I’m going to need a thesaurus to come up with more adjectives to describe this market.[/quote]

There’s a fsbo on Robledo with an open offer at $1.9M that he is holding off on accepting for now. No question the right house on Serbal could go $2M+. I have no idea where this insanity ends but it sure looks like we are heading toward $2M homes here

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC. Numbers for week ended yesterday. This is the month. This is when more inventory traditionally comes on the market most years. Just not seeing that

New listings 21 – thats a very small number

New Pendings of 32 – plenty of demand. This has been around the weekly number every week for the last 4 motnhs. Remarkably consistent

Thats a -11 for the week.

Closed sales at 36 –

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 73 with median of $1.85M. Iventory is up a bit in the face of less new listings and consistent demand. Id have to dig deepeer but suspect we are seeing a higher than usual fall out rate but the houses go right back into escrow. Inventory is still abysmal. While there are a handful lower priced homes the market starts around $1.25M for all but the smallest homes or those with condo ownership/zero lot lines. I also think there are a whole bunch still negotiating multiple offeres received over the weekend. I suspect prohoff is in that category. I just see a lot still active that I know have offers on them.

30% appreciation year over year is pretty much in the tank and Im seeing a bunch showing closer to 40%. I cant wait for my new neighbors. Old ones sucked

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]30% appreciation year over year is pretty much in the tank and Im seeing a bunch showing closer to 40%.[/quote]

So my question is how much more appreciation before NCC is not cheaper than Silicon Valley and nice LA neighborhoods? Another 10%? 20% more? Even more than that?

[sdrealtor]

Data point. About two years ago client sold 3/2 1/2 2200 sf rancher on 1/4 acre in Silly Valley for $3.3m. They had been in it about 35 years. At the time a house like that would have been around 850-900 here in Carlsbad. Today it would be 1.4ish here. Just checked and Zillow has their old house at $3.7 m. They spent less than half of their proceeds for home 50 years newer, nearly twice the size, on a similar size lot backing to a canyon with panoramic ocean views. That was pretty appealing

That says lots of headroom is possible. Who knows how much of that we’ll actually get?

[DaCounselor]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=sdrealtor]30% appreciation year over year is pretty much in the tank and Im seeing a bunch showing closer to 40%.[/quote]

So my question is how much more appreciation before NCC is not cheaper than Silicon Valley and nice LA neighborhoods? Another 10%? 20% more? Even more than that?[/quote]

I’m no expert but I’d ballpark 100% as to SV, aka current prices in NCC are about 1/2 of comps in SV area. From what I have looked at and what my friends in Sunnyvale and Mountain View say. FWIW which may not be much.

More interesting to me is that the price spiking (generally) is not only a NCC thing, SD thing or CA thing but is national and occurring in many many metro areas at some level and also internationally in many places. This is not an importing of SV refugee issue, something much bigger is going on.

[sdrealtor]

Agree it is something larger but just the same it seems like faster rate and with higher prices much bigger dollar increases. I think its both macroeconomics and shifts in who lives here.

I think people spent a year in lockdown and the upper half did very well saving tons of money. The hospitaility workers for example got crushed but they ar emore typically rfenters due to mobility and affordability. After spending a year at home, people want nice homes. I know many people who even with things getting much better re covid still plan to spend much more time at home.

Also there are plenty of places that arent seeing this boom. An example is where I grew up back east. Median HH income is 10% higher than 92009, schools on par or better but prices are maybe 30% of what they are here. Whatever is going on everywhere is more a macro trend. What is going on here is a fundamental shift of what this place is and who lives here.

[sdrealtor]

Im gonna make an early call with less than full confidence. Last year in late April I noticed a slight shift of the market coming back and called that. I told my Title Insurance rep and she thought I was nuts but I was seeing green shoots and they kept growing. Typically the market slows down considerably come early june. Last year it never stopped and has kept roaring straight through.

Pouring over data as I do, I can just feel a slight slowdown starting. Its not a reversal or anything close, its more a restoration of the secular cycles we have always seen. We arent getting much inventory but we are slightly building inventory levels. I could be wrong and I’ll update as I follow this but right now I get a sense July and August perhaps even June will be a little more bearable for buyers. If you are out beating the bushes, hang in there. Gonna follow this to see where it goes the next several weeks

[DaCounselor]

[quote=DaCounselor][quote=sdrealtor]Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.[/quote]

Ok so something on Camino Serbal is going to close at $2 mil now? Wait that’s too low, let’s say $2.25 mil. But why stop there, how about we say $2.5 mil before the year is up? Come to think of it, let’s go with $2.75 mil. Actually, let’s just make it a nice even $3 mil, wtf.

I’m going to need a thesaurus to come up with more adjectives to describe this market.[/quote]

Ok so $1.9 mil for 3,174 sqft on Camino Robledo in LCV.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2320-Camino-Robledo-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712278_zpid/

Decent lot but finishes look verrrrry basic.

$1.9 million tract home. Sdr who built this part of LCV? Not that the builder matters anymore.

[ncsd760]

[quote=DaCounselor][quote=DaCounselor][quote=sdrealtor]Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.[/quote]

Ok so something on Camino Serbal is going to close at $2 mil now? Wait that’s too low, let’s say $2.25 mil. But why stop there, how about we say $2.5 mil before the year is up? Come to think of it, let’s go with $2.75 mil. Actually, let’s just make it a nice even $3 mil, wtf.

I’m going to need a thesaurus to come up with more adjectives to describe this market.[/quote]

Ok so $1.9 mil for 3,174 sqft on Camino Robledo in LCV.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2320-Camino-Robledo-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712278_zpid/

Decent lot but finishes look verrrrry basic.

$1.9 million tract home. Sdr who built this part of LCV? Not that the builder matters anymore.[/quote]

Shea for the Robledo. KB for the Helecho one.

[DaCounselor]

[quote=ncsd760][quote=DaCounselor][quote=DaCounselor][quote=sdrealtor]Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.[/quote]

Ok so something on Camino Serbal is going to close at $2 mil now? Wait that’s too low, let’s say $2.25 mil. But why stop there, how about we say $2.5 mil before the year is up? Come to think of it, let’s go with $2.75 mil. Actually, let’s just make it a nice even $3 mil, wtf.

I’m going to need a thesaurus to come up with more adjectives to describe this market.[/quote]

Ok so $1.9 mil for 3,174 sqft on Camino Robledo in LCV.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2320-Camino-Robledo-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712278_zpid/

Decent lot but finishes look verrrrry basic.

$1.9 million tract home. Sdr who built this part of LCV? Not that the builder matters anymore.[/quote]

Shea for the Robledo. KB for the Helecho one.[/quote]

Thanks. Just realized Robledo closed for $405K over list. $405,000 OVER list. That’s Four Hundred and Five Thousand Dollars over list. La Costa Valley.

[gzz]

up 46% from 3/2020 sale. $485k to $707k in 14 months.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2501-Navarra-Dr-UNIT-126-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16659785_zpid/

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=gzz]up 46% from 3/2020 sale. $485k to $707k in 14 months.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2501-Navarra-Dr-UNIT-126-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16659785_zpid/%5B/quote%5D

And note that it closed $108k above asking, which is 18% above asking.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=DaCounselor][quote=ncsd760][quote=DaCounselor][quote=DaCounselor][quote=sdrealtor]Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.[/quote]

Ok so something on Camino Serbal is going to close at $2 mil now? Wait that’s too low, let’s say $2.25 mil. But why stop there, how about we say $2.5 mil before the year is up? Come to think of it, let’s go with $2.75 mil. Actually, let’s just make it a nice even $3 mil, wtf.

I’m going to need a thesaurus to come up with more adjectives to describe this market.[/quote]

Ok so $1.9 mil for 3,174 sqft on Camino Robledo in LCV.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2320-Camino-Robledo-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712278_zpid/

Decent lot but finishes look verrrrry basic.

$1.9 million tract home. Sdr who built this part of LCV? Not that the builder matters anymore.[/quote]

Shea for the Robledo. KB for the Helecho one.[/quote]

Thanks. Just realized Robledo closed for $405K over list. $405,000 OVER list. That’s Four Hundred and Five Thousand Dollars over list. La Costa Valley.[/quote]

Correct on builders. When Helecho sold there were six or seven buyers who did not get it and knew about where it went. Add another two or three or more new buyers each week and the bar keeps rising. A nicer home on a good lot would easily crest $2m. When I bought mine in 99 I thought some day it would be worth a million around when my youngest goes off to college. Never would have dreamed I’d be closer to $2 than $1m when she did but here i am. This was never a part of the plan

[Author]

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