Nightmare Scenario Building??

[gandalf]

Really hard to tell where this is going. As far as I can see, the only way out, short of ‘reset’, is inflation. But reset may be what occurs. It would be deflationary. Economic collapse raises the specter of destabilization and war.

In the meantime, I’m trying to run a business. That’s my day job. The uncertainty factor makes it more challenging. We have long-term contracts with annual increases, for example. None of this is good for business, to say the least.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As a fellow long time private trader who generally disagrees with doomsdayers, here is my two cents on this. It is possible you are right, but these arbitrarily emotional views on things have never led me to profitable trades. There are certainly negative cross currents in these turbulent times, and I am no goldilocks blind man. However, every time in history we have had sharply declining interest rates with sharply declining stock prices, major rallies have occurred, and I expect it to be no different this time. You can single out Japan as an instance where lower interest rates did not save the day, but I look at our history here, not other countries with completely different political systems and monetary structures.

There are very bullish historical tendencies to stock prices in election years, so I do not believe it will be different this time. March buys during these years have been very lucrative.

Of course I am speaking of stock prices. I do have significant fire power and defenses on my ranch, in case you are right and the world ends in the next 12 months.

I would assume you are heavily short most things, it will be interesting to see come March how those positions fare going forward. So far you have been right, but timing is everything as a trader which you obviously know as well as I do.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As a fellow long time private trader who generally disagrees with doomsdayers, here is my two cents on this. It is possible you are right, but these arbitrarily emotional views on things have never led me to profitable trades. There are certainly negative cross currents in these turbulent times, and I am no goldilocks blind man. However, every time in history we have had sharply declining interest rates with sharply declining stock prices, major rallies have occurred, and I expect it to be no different this time. You can single out Japan as an instance where lower interest rates did not save the day, but I look at our history here, not other countries with completely different political systems and monetary structures.

There are very bullish historical tendencies to stock prices in election years, so I do not believe it will be different this time. March buys during these years have been very lucrative.

Of course I am speaking of stock prices. I do have significant fire power and defenses on my ranch, in case you are right and the world ends in the next 12 months.

I would assume you are heavily short most things, it will be interesting to see come March how those positions fare going forward. So far you have been right, but timing is everything as a trader which you obviously know as well as I do.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As a fellow long time private trader who generally disagrees with doomsdayers, here is my two cents on this. It is possible you are right, but these arbitrarily emotional views on things have never led me to profitable trades. There are certainly negative cross currents in these turbulent times, and I am no goldilocks blind man. However, every time in history we have had sharply declining interest rates with sharply declining stock prices, major rallies have occurred, and I expect it to be no different this time. You can single out Japan as an instance where lower interest rates did not save the day, but I look at our history here, not other countries with completely different political systems and monetary structures.

There are very bullish historical tendencies to stock prices in election years, so I do not believe it will be different this time. March buys during these years have been very lucrative.

Of course I am speaking of stock prices. I do have significant fire power and defenses on my ranch, in case you are right and the world ends in the next 12 months.

I would assume you are heavily short most things, it will be interesting to see come March how those positions fare going forward. So far you have been right, but timing is everything as a trader which you obviously know as well as I do.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As a fellow long time private trader who generally disagrees with doomsdayers, here is my two cents on this. It is possible you are right, but these arbitrarily emotional views on things have never led me to profitable trades. There are certainly negative cross currents in these turbulent times, and I am no goldilocks blind man. However, every time in history we have had sharply declining interest rates with sharply declining stock prices, major rallies have occurred, and I expect it to be no different this time. You can single out Japan as an instance where lower interest rates did not save the day, but I look at our history here, not other countries with completely different political systems and monetary structures.

There are very bullish historical tendencies to stock prices in election years, so I do not believe it will be different this time. March buys during these years have been very lucrative.

Of course I am speaking of stock prices. I do have significant fire power and defenses on my ranch, in case you are right and the world ends in the next 12 months.

I would assume you are heavily short most things, it will be interesting to see come March how those positions fare going forward. So far you have been right, but timing is everything as a trader which you obviously know as well as I do.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As a fellow long time private trader who generally disagrees with doomsdayers, here is my two cents on this. It is possible you are right, but these arbitrarily emotional views on things have never led me to profitable trades. There are certainly negative cross currents in these turbulent times, and I am no goldilocks blind man. However, every time in history we have had sharply declining interest rates with sharply declining stock prices, major rallies have occurred, and I expect it to be no different this time. You can single out Japan as an instance where lower interest rates did not save the day, but I look at our history here, not other countries with completely different political systems and monetary structures.

There are very bullish historical tendencies to stock prices in election years, so I do not believe it will be different this time. March buys during these years have been very lucrative.

Of course I am speaking of stock prices. I do have significant fire power and defenses on my ranch, in case you are right and the world ends in the next 12 months.

I would assume you are heavily short most things, it will be interesting to see come March how those positions fare going forward. So far you have been right, but timing is everything as a trader which you obviously know as well as I do.

[blackbox]

Forget about our economy hitting the depression. I think we’ll hit the Dark Ages. Is that more dramatic?
Yep, its more dramatic……………

[blackbox]

Forget about our economy hitting the depression. I think we’ll hit the Dark Ages. Is that more dramatic?
Yep, its more dramatic……………

[blackbox]

Forget about our economy hitting the depression. I think we’ll hit the Dark Ages. Is that more dramatic?
Yep, its more dramatic……………

[blackbox]

Forget about our economy hitting the depression. I think we’ll hit the Dark Ages. Is that more dramatic?
Yep, its more dramatic……………

[blackbox]

Forget about our economy hitting the depression. I think we’ll hit the Dark Ages. Is that more dramatic?
Yep, its more dramatic……………

[Arraya]

This new depression, which I call The Long Emergency, will play out against the background of a society that has pissed away its oil endowment, bulldozed its factories, arbitraged its productive labor, destroyed both family farms and the commercial infrastructure of main street, and trained its population to become overfed diabetic TV zombie “consumers” of other peoples’ productivity, paid for by “money” they haven’t earned.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/02/burning-down-th.html#comments

[Arraya]

This new depression, which I call The Long Emergency, will play out against the background of a society that has pissed away its oil endowment, bulldozed its factories, arbitraged its productive labor, destroyed both family farms and the commercial infrastructure of main street, and trained its population to become overfed diabetic TV zombie “consumers” of other peoples’ productivity, paid for by “money” they haven’t earned.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/02/burning-down-th.html#comments

[Arraya]

This new depression, which I call The Long Emergency, will play out against the background of a society that has pissed away its oil endowment, bulldozed its factories, arbitraged its productive labor, destroyed both family farms and the commercial infrastructure of main street, and trained its population to become overfed diabetic TV zombie “consumers” of other peoples’ productivity, paid for by “money” they haven’t earned.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/02/burning-down-th.html#comments

[Arraya]

This new depression, which I call The Long Emergency, will play out against the background of a society that has pissed away its oil endowment, bulldozed its factories, arbitraged its productive labor, destroyed both family farms and the commercial infrastructure of main street, and trained its population to become overfed diabetic TV zombie “consumers” of other peoples’ productivity, paid for by “money” they haven’t earned.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/02/burning-down-th.html#comments

[Author]

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