National Surge in September Housing Sales!

[garysears]

Anyone else notice how quick the spin machine goes to work with housing data? I was on yahoo looking at the “news” when I ran across an article saying stocks were up on a September housing sales surge. A few minutes later as stock prices went down the title was re-edited and toned down. These AP online articles get re-edited every few minutes so I pasted the relevant part of the latest one below.

A couple of things I noticed immediately:

1. Home prices were reported as an increase (4.8%)over the August data, but still less than the “analysts” forecasts (deleted in this edited article). Apparently last month was near an all time low. This 4.8% was taken as hugely positive news (at least initially).

2. The August data was significantly revised downward after last month’s initial sales report. Why wouldn’t we expect a further downgrade will occur this month that might actually make September worse than August and set a new low?

3. This latest article below asserts there was a 37% month over month increase in sales in the “West”. That seems astonishing. Like something you might notice. Does anyone really believe that? Makes me think a downgrade might happen for September as well.

What is the deal with the moment by moment cheerleading of financial “news”?

Pasted below is the latest article if you want to read it. I’m sure it’s been respun again by now to show why stocks are doing whatever they are doing.

AP
New Home Sales Rebound in September
Thursday October 25, 10:37 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Sales of New Homes Rebound in September After Hitting Slowest Pace in More Than a Decade

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes posted an unexpected gain in September although the improvement came after sales had fallen to the slowest pace in more than a decade.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that sales of new homes rose by 4.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 units. That level of activity was still 23.3 percent below a year ago, indicating that housing remains in a steep downturn.

Analysts had been expecting sales would fall by 2.5 percent last month from an August sales pace that had originally been reported as 795,000 homes. However, that figure was revised sharply lower in the new report to show a sales rate of just 735,000 in August, the slowest sales pace in 11 years…

…The report on home sales showed that the median new home price in September — the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less — rose to $238,000, up 2.5 percent from August, which had seen prices fall to the lowest level in nearly a year.

The rebound in home sales was led by a 37.7 percent surge in the West. Sales were also up 0.5 percent in the South. But sales of new homes fell by 19.5 percent in the Midwest and 6.6 percent in the Northeast…

Further macro spin followed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Monthly new home sales are typically all over the map. Because of the low volume, the monthly stats are extremely noisy, relative to existing home sales.

I find the monthly new home sales figures almost worthless.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Monthly new home sales are typically all over the map. Because of the low volume, the monthly stats are extremely noisy, relative to existing home sales.

I find the monthly new home sales figures almost worthless.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Monthly new home sales are typically all over the map. Because of the low volume, the monthly stats are extremely noisy, relative to existing home sales.

I find the monthly new home sales figures almost worthless.

[Anonymous]

We had a bump here in Arizona due to a number of people trying to pick a bottom or just being afraid that they would never have another chance to buy. The FOMC decision to reduce overnight rates probably led most of them to think that we are going straight back to 2005 with 50% annual gains yearly from then on out.

I suspect at the rate we are going someday there will be two really wealthy people in the world and the rest of us will just be their food. ;p

“Lending has transformed into a modern day indentured servitude. Forget your neighbors and buy something that matters, your freedom.” asu666

[Anonymous]

We had a bump here in Arizona due to a number of people trying to pick a bottom or just being afraid that they would never have another chance to buy. The FOMC decision to reduce overnight rates probably led most of them to think that we are going straight back to 2005 with 50% annual gains yearly from then on out.

I suspect at the rate we are going someday there will be two really wealthy people in the world and the rest of us will just be their food. ;p

“Lending has transformed into a modern day indentured servitude. Forget your neighbors and buy something that matters, your freedom.” asu666

[Anonymous]

We had a bump here in Arizona due to a number of people trying to pick a bottom or just being afraid that they would never have another chance to buy. The FOMC decision to reduce overnight rates probably led most of them to think that we are going straight back to 2005 with 50% annual gains yearly from then on out.

I suspect at the rate we are going someday there will be two really wealthy people in the world and the rest of us will just be their food. ;p

“Lending has transformed into a modern day indentured servitude. Forget your neighbors and buy something that matters, your freedom.” asu666

[4plexowner]

The margin of error on the month-over-month figures is around 10% so the 4.8% change for September is statistically insignificant (ie, its just noise in the dataset)

We also need to remember that the 23.3% year-over-year decline (which IS statistically significant) is ON TOP of the year-over-year decline from 2006 – ie, this is the second year in a row of serious decline (something that the MSM certainly isn’t going to point out)

~

We can all take heart though, Lawrence Yun of the NAR is assuring us that these problems are temporary!

[4plexowner]

The margin of error on the month-over-month figures is around 10% so the 4.8% change for September is statistically insignificant (ie, its just noise in the dataset)

We also need to remember that the 23.3% year-over-year decline (which IS statistically significant) is ON TOP of the year-over-year decline from 2006 – ie, this is the second year in a row of serious decline (something that the MSM certainly isn’t going to point out)

~

We can all take heart though, Lawrence Yun of the NAR is assuring us that these problems are temporary!

[4plexowner]

The margin of error on the month-over-month figures is around 10% so the 4.8% change for September is statistically insignificant (ie, its just noise in the dataset)

We also need to remember that the 23.3% year-over-year decline (which IS statistically significant) is ON TOP of the year-over-year decline from 2006 – ie, this is the second year in a row of serious decline (something that the MSM certainly isn’t going to point out)

~

We can all take heart though, Lawrence Yun of the NAR is assuring us that these problems are temporary!

[cr]

Lol Lawrence Yun, what a tool. He must get sick of looking at terrible numbers and with all but a gun to his head being forced to spin them positively.

We all know month to month is meaningless, but I was irritated when Cavuto called it “good news” for housing and didn’t even mention the dismal lows they were comparing this to, nor the fact that August was revised down.

[cr]

Lol Lawrence Yun, what a tool. He must get sick of looking at terrible numbers and with all but a gun to his head being forced to spin them positively.

We all know month to month is meaningless, but I was irritated when Cavuto called it “good news” for housing and didn’t even mention the dismal lows they were comparing this to, nor the fact that August was revised down.

[cr]

Lol Lawrence Yun, what a tool. He must get sick of looking at terrible numbers and with all but a gun to his head being forced to spin them positively.

We all know month to month is meaningless, but I was irritated when Cavuto called it “good news” for housing and didn’t even mention the dismal lows they were comparing this to, nor the fact that August was revised down.

[Author]

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