More common sense for buyers

[SD Realtor]

Hi Alex –

It took me all of a few minutes to find some pertinent posts for you. Please refer to thread title

“slow decline or is it a big chunk” in that thread I commented about my thoughts on the 10 year. This was June 4th.

also

“going rate in san diego for 30 year fixed, 7-1 arm, 5-1 arm” I posted extensively on my believes on the 10 year. I even commented on the rise of the 10 year of over 30 basis points from mid March. Then I went into an extensive explanation of my thoughts on the 10 year. This was done on May 21.

I can go through the history of posts and find many more Alex. Do you want me to do that?

Please respond to this as I don’t really appreciate your inference.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Alex –

It took me all of a few minutes to find some pertinent posts for you. Please refer to thread title

“slow decline or is it a big chunk” in that thread I commented about my thoughts on the 10 year. This was June 4th.

also

“going rate in san diego for 30 year fixed, 7-1 arm, 5-1 arm” I posted extensively on my believes on the 10 year. I even commented on the rise of the 10 year of over 30 basis points from mid March. Then I went into an extensive explanation of my thoughts on the 10 year. This was done on May 21.

I can go through the history of posts and find many more Alex. Do you want me to do that?

Please respond to this as I don’t really appreciate your inference.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Coop –

Unfortunately I don’t know of any good realtors in SFV. Just as a point of trivia I grew up in Porter Ranch…

Anyways I heartily agree that it is hard to find a trustworthy realtor. That doesn’t change my view that representation is not important for resale or for new homes. My advice is talk to friends who have bought/sold and were happy. Find out who they used.. Also never be afraid to ask the realtor for contact info from their most recent clients and then follow them up. Yeah I won’t be buying from the developers but only because I want a larger lot, and choke on MR fees. RE is tough because the literacy rate, and professionalism of the majority of the sales agents is sorry at best. So the majority of people out there deal with these idiots and abhor agents, and rightfully so.

I could not encourage you more to get the license on your own. If you never use it, it still is a good experience to go through. If you do use it, if only on a part time basis, then good for you. I am not to thrilled with the Redfin model. I have had a two people who complained to me that they got no support from the buyers agent but maybe that was due to the local office down here. Another alternative is to simply use a real estate attorney. That could save you some bucks as well.

Seriously though, take the class and become a licensee just to learn a little more about stuff. At the very least if you do use an agent you can keep him/her honest.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Coop –

Unfortunately I don’t know of any good realtors in SFV. Just as a point of trivia I grew up in Porter Ranch…

Anyways I heartily agree that it is hard to find a trustworthy realtor. That doesn’t change my view that representation is not important for resale or for new homes. My advice is talk to friends who have bought/sold and were happy. Find out who they used.. Also never be afraid to ask the realtor for contact info from their most recent clients and then follow them up. Yeah I won’t be buying from the developers but only because I want a larger lot, and choke on MR fees. RE is tough because the literacy rate, and professionalism of the majority of the sales agents is sorry at best. So the majority of people out there deal with these idiots and abhor agents, and rightfully so.

I could not encourage you more to get the license on your own. If you never use it, it still is a good experience to go through. If you do use it, if only on a part time basis, then good for you. I am not to thrilled with the Redfin model. I have had a two people who complained to me that they got no support from the buyers agent but maybe that was due to the local office down here. Another alternative is to simply use a real estate attorney. That could save you some bucks as well.

Seriously though, take the class and become a licensee just to learn a little more about stuff. At the very least if you do use an agent you can keep him/her honest.

SD Realtor

[NotCranky]

Sdr, If you recall one of my first posts was to tell people that they had time to get their own real estate license and that it would be easy and inexpensive, maybe fun.

Alex might have been slamming me,not sure, I probably have it coming. For the record SDR absolutely said that interest rates might be a catalyst toward kicking the price declines in gear. We will see…anybody blogging has always known that teaser and historically low rates wouldn’t last . Thats why they are called “historically” low instead of permanently low.

[NotCranky]

Sdr, If you recall one of my first posts was to tell people that they had time to get their own real estate license and that it would be easy and inexpensive, maybe fun.

Alex might have been slamming me,not sure, I probably have it coming. For the record SDR absolutely said that interest rates might be a catalyst toward kicking the price declines in gear. We will see…anybody blogging has always known that teaser and historically low rates wouldn’t last . Thats why they are called “historically” low instead of permanently low.

[patientrenter]

SD Realtor, you are a very good contributor to this blog, and you gave specific helpful information to us all in this thread. I agree with you that you have a mild bias in favor of real estate agents that you don’t try to hide and isn’t hard for even the slow-witted to get past. Hell, half the time when I go to my doctor, I don’t take the prescriptions he gives me, because I draw my own conclusions about what’s good and bad for me. We’re all responsible for our own thinking, and I think your revealing your affiliation in your handle is the best way to take care of the bias issue. I hope you keep a positive personal attitude in the face of some hostility here to real estate agents in general.

Predicting long bond interest rates = tossing coins:
As you know, short-term rates (including those for ARMs) are practically set by the Fed, whilst long-term yields (and hence rates on fixed mortgages) are only influenced indirectly by the Fed. Although I make some of my living from timing purchases of long bonds, not even gurus like Bill Gross can predict much more than 50% of the time whether long rates will rise or fall in the near or far future. But it is true that an increase in daily interest rate volatility on long bonds at one time can portend bigger movements in either direction months ahead. Is that what you were getting at?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

SD Realtor, you are a very good contributor to this blog, and you gave specific helpful information to us all in this thread. I agree with you that you have a mild bias in favor of real estate agents that you don’t try to hide and isn’t hard for even the slow-witted to get past. Hell, half the time when I go to my doctor, I don’t take the prescriptions he gives me, because I draw my own conclusions about what’s good and bad for me. We’re all responsible for our own thinking, and I think your revealing your affiliation in your handle is the best way to take care of the bias issue. I hope you keep a positive personal attitude in the face of some hostility here to real estate agents in general.

Predicting long bond interest rates = tossing coins:
As you know, short-term rates (including those for ARMs) are practically set by the Fed, whilst long-term yields (and hence rates on fixed mortgages) are only influenced indirectly by the Fed. Although I make some of my living from timing purchases of long bonds, not even gurus like Bill Gross can predict much more than 50% of the time whether long rates will rise or fall in the near or far future. But it is true that an increase in daily interest rate volatility on long bonds at one time can portend bigger movements in either direction months ahead. Is that what you were getting at?

Patient renter in OC

[SD Realtor]

Hi Patientrenter –

You are quite right that predicting the behavior of the treasury yield is hard to do, pretty much impossible. What I was trying to get at, and which I apparently miserably at doing, was two fold.

1 – I was trying to point out that interest rates on mortgages are not tied to the overnight rate set by the fed. That the mortgage rates set by lenders are based on the bond yield behavior, not the fed, not the fed, not the fed…

2 – Once a potential buyer can accept premise 1, they can very much look at the treasury yield and get an idea of what is going on with mortgage rates. They can look at the behavior of the treasury, they can determine if the overall behavior of treasury is trending up or down, and they can get some sort of feel for which way things are going. More astute buyers can even predict upper and lower bounds on where the treasury yield may be 1 or 2 months out.

Again, if anybody here feels that lenders base mortgage rates on the fed rate, I cannot state how wrong that assumption is. HELOCs maybe, commercial loans yeah… but the main financing vehicles that are used for mortgages we commonly discuss here… those are based on the 10 year.

My point is not to say the 10 year is predictable or that I can predict it… Not in any manner. If I were to make any attempt predict it, well… it looks like over the past few years it (the 10 year yield) is showing higher highs and higher lows. So I would guess (note the words guess) that it will perhaps run up to 5.5 maybe even 5.75 and then it will cycle down.

One other note, as was previously mentioned, and as you very well know, an inversion in the 10 year and overnight rate has predated a recession I believe 6 out of 7 times or something like that. The most recent inversion I believe is unwinding because the recession didn’t occur when many thought it would. Similarly inflation and stronger economic nunbers have “chased” the bond yield up. Anyways I am WAY out of my element in the past 2 paragraphs.

To be simple, noting where the 10 year is at, and where it may go in the near future may save potential buyers alot of money.

[SD Realtor]

Hi Patientrenter –

You are quite right that predicting the behavior of the treasury yield is hard to do, pretty much impossible. What I was trying to get at, and which I apparently miserably at doing, was two fold.

1 – I was trying to point out that interest rates on mortgages are not tied to the overnight rate set by the fed. That the mortgage rates set by lenders are based on the bond yield behavior, not the fed, not the fed, not the fed…

2 – Once a potential buyer can accept premise 1, they can very much look at the treasury yield and get an idea of what is going on with mortgage rates. They can look at the behavior of the treasury, they can determine if the overall behavior of treasury is trending up or down, and they can get some sort of feel for which way things are going. More astute buyers can even predict upper and lower bounds on where the treasury yield may be 1 or 2 months out.

Again, if anybody here feels that lenders base mortgage rates on the fed rate, I cannot state how wrong that assumption is. HELOCs maybe, commercial loans yeah… but the main financing vehicles that are used for mortgages we commonly discuss here… those are based on the 10 year.

My point is not to say the 10 year is predictable or that I can predict it… Not in any manner. If I were to make any attempt predict it, well… it looks like over the past few years it (the 10 year yield) is showing higher highs and higher lows. So I would guess (note the words guess) that it will perhaps run up to 5.5 maybe even 5.75 and then it will cycle down.

One other note, as was previously mentioned, and as you very well know, an inversion in the 10 year and overnight rate has predated a recession I believe 6 out of 7 times or something like that. The most recent inversion I believe is unwinding because the recession didn’t occur when many thought it would. Similarly inflation and stronger economic nunbers have “chased” the bond yield up. Anyways I am WAY out of my element in the past 2 paragraphs.

To be simple, noting where the 10 year is at, and where it may go in the near future may save potential buyers alot of money.

[lurkor]

Alex_angel recently started a thread saying that the bubble is just now about to start bursting — only about two years late! but is giving SD Realtor a hard time because SDR can’t predict interest rate moves ahead of time? Either that or pretending that SDR didn’t know higher rates would hurt the market (as if ANYONE didn’t know that)?

Wow, you just can’t win on these internet forums.

SDR is a long time poster and a good guy. So everyone who hasn’t added as much to the forum as he has needs to just back off. Nobody is above criticism or questioning but he deserves some respect.

[lurkor]

Alex_angel recently started a thread saying that the bubble is just now about to start bursting — only about two years late! but is giving SD Realtor a hard time because SDR can’t predict interest rate moves ahead of time? Either that or pretending that SDR didn’t know higher rates would hurt the market (as if ANYONE didn’t know that)?

Wow, you just can’t win on these internet forums.

SDR is a long time poster and a good guy. So everyone who hasn’t added as much to the forum as he has needs to just back off. Nobody is above criticism or questioning but he deserves some respect.

[NotCranky]

I appreciate a few of you guy’s rallying around SDRealtor.Every single post I gave him credit and always have. Our discusson today is part of something that has been going on for a while. If he thought I was being disrespectful he would have decided that and let me know quite clearly. I think he understands some of my concerns. We all deserve some Respect and yes the Forum is tough and dissention is not all bad. Adam and I can have our discussion privately now since we have exchanged emails. Hooray!

[NotCranky]

I appreciate a few of you guy’s rallying around SDRealtor.Every single post I gave him credit and always have. Our discusson today is part of something that has been going on for a while. If he thought I was being disrespectful he would have decided that and let me know quite clearly. I think he understands some of my concerns. We all deserve some Respect and yes the Forum is tough and dissention is not all bad. Adam and I can have our discussion privately now since we have exchanged emails. Hooray!

[SD Realtor]

Like I said Rus I have always thought you are a straight shooter and I always respect your opinions. While you and I disagree on what you wrote I don’t view it as an attack or being disrespectful at all. It is what you feel and you presented it a respectable manner.

I believe I wrote at one time, “If we all agreed on everything this forum would suck.”

SD Realtor

[Author]

Posts