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- This topic has 140 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 10 months ago by Allan from Fallbrook.
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February 4, 2008 at 8:37 AM #11706February 4, 2008 at 8:49 AM #147588XBoxBoyParticipant
Raptor,
None of what you write surprises me in the least. The one thing I will comment on, is that you should expect to see small spurts of buying even though the overall trend is going to remain down for quite a while. You see this in a bear market in the stock exchanges too.
Personally, I fully expect to see the beginnings of a bounce this spring. There will be plenty of people that think there will be a turnaround, and they’ll want to get in before the rush. But the fundamentals are still exactly where your banker pointed out they are. And that means this spring bounce won’t hold. Personally, I don’t expect to see seller capitulation in the higher priced areas until fall 2008.
Just my 2cents worth though,
XBoxBoy
February 4, 2008 at 8:49 AM #147838XBoxBoyParticipantRaptor,
None of what you write surprises me in the least. The one thing I will comment on, is that you should expect to see small spurts of buying even though the overall trend is going to remain down for quite a while. You see this in a bear market in the stock exchanges too.
Personally, I fully expect to see the beginnings of a bounce this spring. There will be plenty of people that think there will be a turnaround, and they’ll want to get in before the rush. But the fundamentals are still exactly where your banker pointed out they are. And that means this spring bounce won’t hold. Personally, I don’t expect to see seller capitulation in the higher priced areas until fall 2008.
Just my 2cents worth though,
XBoxBoy
February 4, 2008 at 8:49 AM #147861XBoxBoyParticipantRaptor,
None of what you write surprises me in the least. The one thing I will comment on, is that you should expect to see small spurts of buying even though the overall trend is going to remain down for quite a while. You see this in a bear market in the stock exchanges too.
Personally, I fully expect to see the beginnings of a bounce this spring. There will be plenty of people that think there will be a turnaround, and they’ll want to get in before the rush. But the fundamentals are still exactly where your banker pointed out they are. And that means this spring bounce won’t hold. Personally, I don’t expect to see seller capitulation in the higher priced areas until fall 2008.
Just my 2cents worth though,
XBoxBoy
February 4, 2008 at 8:49 AM #147872XBoxBoyParticipantRaptor,
None of what you write surprises me in the least. The one thing I will comment on, is that you should expect to see small spurts of buying even though the overall trend is going to remain down for quite a while. You see this in a bear market in the stock exchanges too.
Personally, I fully expect to see the beginnings of a bounce this spring. There will be plenty of people that think there will be a turnaround, and they’ll want to get in before the rush. But the fundamentals are still exactly where your banker pointed out they are. And that means this spring bounce won’t hold. Personally, I don’t expect to see seller capitulation in the higher priced areas until fall 2008.
Just my 2cents worth though,
XBoxBoy
February 4, 2008 at 8:49 AM #147939XBoxBoyParticipantRaptor,
None of what you write surprises me in the least. The one thing I will comment on, is that you should expect to see small spurts of buying even though the overall trend is going to remain down for quite a while. You see this in a bear market in the stock exchanges too.
Personally, I fully expect to see the beginnings of a bounce this spring. There will be plenty of people that think there will be a turnaround, and they’ll want to get in before the rush. But the fundamentals are still exactly where your banker pointed out they are. And that means this spring bounce won’t hold. Personally, I don’t expect to see seller capitulation in the higher priced areas until fall 2008.
Just my 2cents worth though,
XBoxBoy
February 4, 2008 at 11:29 AM #147677EconProfParticipantBobS
Wow…knife catchers still out there, esp. in the few still- strong pockets of prosperity in this sinking economy.
Methinks the opposing sides on the ongoing debate about the future of RE prices underrate the the growing likelihood of a deep and long old-fashioned recession. Historically, RE prices simply have to react to deteriorating fundamentals such as incomes, spending, unemployment, growing gov’t deficits at all levels, etc. during such declines.
BTW here in Santaluz, a neighborhood you have looked at, prices are softening, inventories growing, and short-sales popping up among my previously overconfident neighbors. Happy hunting…time is on your side.February 4, 2008 at 11:29 AM #147928EconProfParticipantBobS
Wow…knife catchers still out there, esp. in the few still- strong pockets of prosperity in this sinking economy.
Methinks the opposing sides on the ongoing debate about the future of RE prices underrate the the growing likelihood of a deep and long old-fashioned recession. Historically, RE prices simply have to react to deteriorating fundamentals such as incomes, spending, unemployment, growing gov’t deficits at all levels, etc. during such declines.
BTW here in Santaluz, a neighborhood you have looked at, prices are softening, inventories growing, and short-sales popping up among my previously overconfident neighbors. Happy hunting…time is on your side.February 4, 2008 at 11:29 AM #147950EconProfParticipantBobS
Wow…knife catchers still out there, esp. in the few still- strong pockets of prosperity in this sinking economy.
Methinks the opposing sides on the ongoing debate about the future of RE prices underrate the the growing likelihood of a deep and long old-fashioned recession. Historically, RE prices simply have to react to deteriorating fundamentals such as incomes, spending, unemployment, growing gov’t deficits at all levels, etc. during such declines.
BTW here in Santaluz, a neighborhood you have looked at, prices are softening, inventories growing, and short-sales popping up among my previously overconfident neighbors. Happy hunting…time is on your side.February 4, 2008 at 11:29 AM #147962EconProfParticipantBobS
Wow…knife catchers still out there, esp. in the few still- strong pockets of prosperity in this sinking economy.
Methinks the opposing sides on the ongoing debate about the future of RE prices underrate the the growing likelihood of a deep and long old-fashioned recession. Historically, RE prices simply have to react to deteriorating fundamentals such as incomes, spending, unemployment, growing gov’t deficits at all levels, etc. during such declines.
BTW here in Santaluz, a neighborhood you have looked at, prices are softening, inventories growing, and short-sales popping up among my previously overconfident neighbors. Happy hunting…time is on your side.February 4, 2008 at 11:29 AM #148029EconProfParticipantBobS
Wow…knife catchers still out there, esp. in the few still- strong pockets of prosperity in this sinking economy.
Methinks the opposing sides on the ongoing debate about the future of RE prices underrate the the growing likelihood of a deep and long old-fashioned recession. Historically, RE prices simply have to react to deteriorating fundamentals such as incomes, spending, unemployment, growing gov’t deficits at all levels, etc. during such declines.
BTW here in Santaluz, a neighborhood you have looked at, prices are softening, inventories growing, and short-sales popping up among my previously overconfident neighbors. Happy hunting…time is on your side.February 4, 2008 at 11:49 AM #147691Allan from FallbrookParticipantBobS: As I’m sure Raptor will tell you, areas like Palo Alto and Los Altos are very different than what you find down here. Call it the “Google effect” or the “Apple effect”, but prices are remaining stubbornly high, and houses continue to move, even at those prices.
I have friend that lives in Los Altos, and he is telling me stories about 16,000sf lots in LAH going for $2MM.
I don’t doubt that the market will come down, but it will probably take much longer than San Diego, OC or LA.
February 4, 2008 at 11:49 AM #147943Allan from FallbrookParticipantBobS: As I’m sure Raptor will tell you, areas like Palo Alto and Los Altos are very different than what you find down here. Call it the “Google effect” or the “Apple effect”, but prices are remaining stubbornly high, and houses continue to move, even at those prices.
I have friend that lives in Los Altos, and he is telling me stories about 16,000sf lots in LAH going for $2MM.
I don’t doubt that the market will come down, but it will probably take much longer than San Diego, OC or LA.
February 4, 2008 at 11:49 AM #147965Allan from FallbrookParticipantBobS: As I’m sure Raptor will tell you, areas like Palo Alto and Los Altos are very different than what you find down here. Call it the “Google effect” or the “Apple effect”, but prices are remaining stubbornly high, and houses continue to move, even at those prices.
I have friend that lives in Los Altos, and he is telling me stories about 16,000sf lots in LAH going for $2MM.
I don’t doubt that the market will come down, but it will probably take much longer than San Diego, OC or LA.
February 4, 2008 at 11:49 AM #147977Allan from FallbrookParticipantBobS: As I’m sure Raptor will tell you, areas like Palo Alto and Los Altos are very different than what you find down here. Call it the “Google effect” or the “Apple effect”, but prices are remaining stubbornly high, and houses continue to move, even at those prices.
I have friend that lives in Los Altos, and he is telling me stories about 16,000sf lots in LAH going for $2MM.
I don’t doubt that the market will come down, but it will probably take much longer than San Diego, OC or LA.
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