Mira Mesa Monitor

[sdrealtor]

I wouldn’t expect volume to go down just the rate of appreciation. There are plenty of buyers and 5,7,10/1 arm rates are below 4% and will increasingly come into fashion

[sdrealtor]

First signs of a change in the market appearing. Not so much here as up along NCC but next 2 weeks will be very telling.

New listings 9 (10) – this week was bigger last year also. Need to watch what happens next week

New Pendings of 6 (9) – steady with previous weeks but usually starts ramping up in weeks after tax season. Another thing to follow

Closed sales at 6 (7) –

Inventory at 9 with median of 1M. Last year it was 10 with median of 782K.

This is the time when we start seeing a step up in supply each year. Also not usual for pendings to slip a couple weeks around tax deadline before they start stepping up. Im seeing more of a change elsewhere than here but first time Im feeling the market has shifted its balance of power. Next two weeks will tell that story particularly the the second one.

[sdrealtor]

No weakness here. 3 more houses went pending in last day with more to follow soon

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]No weakness here. 3 more houses went pending in last day with more to follow soon[/quote]
Houses are still flying off the shelves. There are only 3 houses on the market for more than 10 days and 0 are on the market for more than 2 weeks.

[limkotir]

New high SFH price for 92126 is in – $1.61m

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024

[an]

[quote=limkotir]New high SFH price for 92126 is in – $1.61m

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024%5B/quote%5D
That was quick!

[sdrealtor]

Remember last week I said the market looked to be changing? Forget I said that. Update tomorrow

[Coronita]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7260-Calle-Cristobal-92126/unit-42/home/4559129

1114sqft condo in 92126….
$724k.

Welcome to the 92126,
…..the new Beverly Mesa….

It’s only 5 minutes to new
…..La Jolla Atherton..

It’s also pretty close to 92130, the new..
….Carmel Cupertino….

Lol. I really hope doomsayers are right and that we see a massive price correction. I mean, as it stands, I am priced out from buying more here unless I do something drastic like raise rents closer to market price or work for a startup that hits the IPO jackpot

Bay Area housing all over again…boy do I not miss those days….

If you think it’s bad here…..
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/945-Foxglove-Dr-94086/home/671314

4/2 1700 sqft in roughly a place like Beverly Mesa.up there. $2.9m

[limkotir]

Not familiar with bay area neighborhoods or market dynamics, but fully recognize Sunnyvale is a city that houses many tech companies.

Seems like the K-12 public schools this house is zoned to is ok, whereas MM has high achieving schools, but definitely not close to the nearby tech money influence.

Two questions: are public schools in the bay area in MM-like / -esque neighborhoods are typically like this per GreatSchools, mostly with 6s to 8s ratings, and 2) is it true many upper middle class families, by bay area standards, just end up going the private school route?

[an]

What’s interesting is, according to Redfin, the rent estimate for that Sunnyvale home is only ~$6k. Houses in Mira Mesa with similar rent estimate from Redfin (trying to keep variables as close to the same as possible) is going for ~$1.3-1.4m.

[Coronita]

[quote=limkotir]Not familiar with bay area neighborhoods or market dynamics, but fully recognize Sunnyvale is a city that houses many tech companies.

Seems like the K-12 public schools this house is zoned to is ok, whereas MM has high achieving schools, but definitely not close to the nearby tech money influence.

Two questions: are public schools in the bay area in MM-like / -esque neighborhoods are typically like this per GreatSchools, mostly with 6s to 8s ratings, and 2) is it true many upper middle class families, by bay area standards, just end up going the private school route?[/quote]

Sunnyvale and south is what would be considered on par with Mira Mesa in terms of schools for a family. The location of the large apple campus only came recently with the past few years. Sunnyvale use to be a solid middle class neighborhood back in early 2000s obtainable for middle class, even as far as 2008.

Cupertino has always been the sought after school district.

I see many parallels when between Sunnyvale (ditto for mountain view) and Mira Mesa,.when things changed for the better. Close proximity to job center. No different than Mira Mesa being close to Sorrento Valley and now the life sciences growth area near 3 Roots…. 3 Roots will do well. Mira Mesa will do well as the more blue collar older owners move out by selling and retiring and refreshed with new owners. If SFH in MM are now over $1m, it’s a entirely new demographics moving in now aint going back. In practice, when public schools in the area will continue to get better as the demographics changes.

Short of jumping on an IPO bandwagon or working for a company with decent RSUs or being in a double income earning family….that’s what’s going to be the new norm for new people, unfortunately.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=an]What’s interesting is, according to Redfin, the rent estimate for that Sunnyvale home is only ~$6k. Houses in Mira Mesa with similar rent estimate from Redfin (trying to keep variables as close to the same as possible) is going for ~$1.3-1.4m.[/quote]

I don’t know about Redfin rent estimates but my neighborhood has rents around $6k now and prices are $2m+ ish

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=an]What’s interesting is, according to Redfin, the rent estimate for that Sunnyvale home is only ~$6k. Houses in Mira Mesa with similar rent estimate from Redfin (trying to keep variables as close to the same as possible) is going for ~$1.3-1.4m.[/quote]

I don’t know about Redfin rent estimates but my neighborhood has rents around $6k now and prices are $2m+ ish[/quote]

That estimate in redfin for 94086 is pretty close to reality. Speaking from experience. 4/2 1700sqft in Sunnyvale c rented for $5000/month
Roughly same time 5/3 2600 sqft in 92130 rented for $5000/month around the same time. 94086 tenant isn’t planning to buy anytime soon because despite floating in Uber and Facebook stock grants, rent is still cheaper than buy by a lot and money saved, tenant sends kid to private school and very close to new tech campuses. But there it’s pretty crazy, there use to be a large plot of dumpyard land next to the rail lines. Last time i was there, that scrapyard right along train tracks is now high density housing.

Both roughly $6k/month now.

That’s why I said what I said. All else being equal, tenant gets more for their money here in SD, as long as they can work remotely most of the time. I don’t need everyone to work remotely. I just need to find one that does, lol…92130 just renewed his lease for 2nd year and asked for an additional 2-3 years extension….I said we would talk about it when time is up.

I’m not sure if $6k/month in MM is doable yet. I’m not saying it isn’t, I just don’t know. Could be with the right house.

[an]

[quote=Coronita]I’m not sure if $6k/month in MM is doable yet. I’m not saying it isn’t, I just don’t know. Could be with the right house.[/quote]
$6k-6.5k is possible for the newer houses at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal as well as the 2500ish sq-ft houses in 3Roots and some of the view lots West of MM.

[Coronita]

[quote=an][quote=Coronita]I’m not sure if $6k/month in MM is doable yet. I’m not saying it isn’t, I just don’t know. Could be with the right house.[/quote]
$6k-6.5k is possible for the newer houses at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal as well as the 2500ish sq-ft houses in 3Roots and some of the view lots West of MM.[/quote]

I don’t know this market well, so probably. Rent has dramatically increased here in SD the last year.

[Author]

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