Median down 10.5 Percent from April

[powayseller]

Thanks to JES for finding this today on CNN’s housing story.

[The-Shoveler]

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy
You Guy’s see this !!

Reuters
H&R Block shares tumble on mortgage woes
Friday August 25, 11:01 am ET
By Joseph A. Giannone
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Shares of H&R Block Inc. (NYSE:HRB – News) sank 11 percent on Friday as the largest U.S. tax preparer warned of losses at its struggling mortgage unit, and UBS downgraded the stock to “neutral.”

The company said it would take a charge of $61.3 million, or 19 cents a share, to reflect an increase in the number of its subprime mortgage customers falling behind on their loan payments.

H&R Block’s woes will likely extend to other subprime lenders, analysts said, as borrowers with less-than-stellar credit histories struggle to keep up their payments as rates rise.

[carlislematthew]

It’s interesting to note, again, one of the lagging aspects of the median and how it will affect these stats.

If the peak was in April 2006, as stated by the article, then we can reasonably assume that prices rose up until that point. So, the current YOY (year on year) median figure is based on a lower starting point then the April peak. So, as we approach April 2007, the YOY figure will be based on a higher and higher value (the peak in April 2006).

So even if prices “level off” (yeah, right) from now until April of 2007, the YOY median will continue to decline as we’ll be measured against the peak, and not some point *before* the peak.

Finally, if you add a dose of realism to this picture and assume that prices will continue to decline, even if just a little, then the declines will be accelerated.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

This points to a 10-15% + decline in median being “baked in” already.

[Author]

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