May Shoe Just DROPPED !

[latesummer2008]

I don’t have a vested interest in RE. And I am a scientist at heart. I enjoy analyzing data and forming conclusions. Mix that with my RE background and this is what you get. I realize these boards are populated by realtors for obvious reasons. My aim is not to bash them, but STATE THE FACTS about what is really going on in RE.
My other site is more informational and not as populated as this one YET. I would think as we go forward, and prices decline more, it will be. I have devised a formula to value properties in a declining market. As that becomes more evident, I think people will become more interested. My hope is that each specific area will have others begin posting price declines as they come in. It is quite easy on Zillow.

Lies and deceit is why I left the industry professionally in the first place. I could’nt stand working with lying salespeople, hawking families up to their eyeballs in debt, even when THEY KNEW it was a bad investment. (You don’t want to know what I really think..)
RE is much more interesting when you don’t have to sell it for a living. Just tell it like it is….and try to HELP people.

If your curious about the Westside of LA, check out my website :

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

I add recent price declines every week for specific areas on the Westside.

[JWM in SD]

Sorry, but I’m a working stiff. The westside of LA is something I’ll probably never contemplate as home…unless we really overshoot the mean.

I do want to know what you really think. I’m curious to se if it differs from my own perceptions of what the LOs and the rest of the greedy bastards were really doing.

[JWM in SD]

Sorry, but I’m a working stiff. The westside of LA is something I’ll probably never contemplate as home…unless we really overshoot the mean.

I do want to know what you really think. I’m curious to se if it differs from my own perceptions of what the LOs and the rest of the greedy bastards were really doing.

[SD Realtor]

So JWM when did i ever say that I didn’t think the market wasn’t going down. Please point me to that post.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

So JWM when did i ever say that I didn’t think the market wasn’t going down. Please point me to that post.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

For that matter, I don’t think I ever heard sdr who I frequently argue with ever state that he thought the market wasn’t going down either.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

For that matter, I don’t think I ever heard sdr who I frequently argue with ever state that he thought the market wasn’t going down either.

SD Realtor

[NotCranky]

jwm & Latesummer,

Your bearishness doesn’t bother me at all. I can find you a residential property that sold for 440k in 2005 that is now listed for 312k and I could probably have for 275k or less today. I don’t feel comfortable dragging MLS data over here. I think it will go to 200k a buyer or two from now. I think it is quite possible this scenario is going to become common place. I am trying to get at where you two think the bottom will be in terms that we piggingtonians can actually have a discussion about?
I think we actually had two bubbles, one caused by the strength of the economy in the second half of the 90’s and early 2000’s which drove the market until the funny money came in about 2002 and proceeded to get crazier. Thats why I tend to agree with you both about the macaroni really hitting the fan. Perhaps time has mitigated half or the first bubble and none of the second. I think we have 1 1/2 bubbles from peak or 2001-2002 prices at worst case scenario unless we are going into a depression, which I really don’t see as long as the US is the world’s superpower.That said I think a BIG WAR is a slim possibilty and all bets would be off for that too. That is about as scientific as I care to get. I am not really putting my pride on the line though with these predictions.I’ll start buying when it makes sense compared to other opportunities and I get a beter feel for the strength of the recession at hand.
Again what do you “super bears” think will stop the market from falling regardless of where that is?

[NotCranky]

jwm & Latesummer,

Your bearishness doesn’t bother me at all. I can find you a residential property that sold for 440k in 2005 that is now listed for 312k and I could probably have for 275k or less today. I don’t feel comfortable dragging MLS data over here. I think it will go to 200k a buyer or two from now. I think it is quite possible this scenario is going to become common place. I am trying to get at where you two think the bottom will be in terms that we piggingtonians can actually have a discussion about?
I think we actually had two bubbles, one caused by the strength of the economy in the second half of the 90’s and early 2000’s which drove the market until the funny money came in about 2002 and proceeded to get crazier. Thats why I tend to agree with you both about the macaroni really hitting the fan. Perhaps time has mitigated half or the first bubble and none of the second. I think we have 1 1/2 bubbles from peak or 2001-2002 prices at worst case scenario unless we are going into a depression, which I really don’t see as long as the US is the world’s superpower.That said I think a BIG WAR is a slim possibilty and all bets would be off for that too. That is about as scientific as I care to get. I am not really putting my pride on the line though with these predictions.I’ll start buying when it makes sense compared to other opportunities and I get a beter feel for the strength of the recession at hand.
Again what do you “super bears” think will stop the market from falling regardless of where that is?

[JWM in SD]

SD Realtor, the market going down is not what I take issue with. It’s telling the newbies who come that it’s okay to buy a house if they can afford it now and plan on staying for a long time. Ordinarily, that would be reasonable advice. Now, it isn’t. There are some bad economic events on the horizon. This housing bubble wasn’t natural like the one in the early nineties. It was driven by macroeconomic issues with credit liquidity. Those issues are coming to head as we speak. Purchasing overpriced illiquid assets of anykind right now is not a good idea. Specifically bubble area real estate.

[JWM in SD]

SD Realtor, the market going down is not what I take issue with. It’s telling the newbies who come that it’s okay to buy a house if they can afford it now and plan on staying for a long time. Ordinarily, that would be reasonable advice. Now, it isn’t. There are some bad economic events on the horizon. This housing bubble wasn’t natural like the one in the early nineties. It was driven by macroeconomic issues with credit liquidity. Those issues are coming to head as we speak. Purchasing overpriced illiquid assets of anykind right now is not a good idea. Specifically bubble area real estate.

[SD Realtor]

JWM what I consistently say is that if the decision is purely one of economics then it is 100% of a no brainer to not purchase the house. However to not say that there are other factors to consider when purchasing a home is a fallacy. I am not arguing the fact that the market will not depreciate. As I said, I do believe some areas/types of homes will get hit harder then others. What is clearly evident is that there are some people who are going to buy knowing full well of what is happening. No matter how much it grates against most people who post here, there are people who want to buy now and will buy now knowing that the market will depreciate. Evidently you don’t like that but you don’t deal with these people, I do as do other Realtors. I just got back from an appt in Escondido. This guy is selling his home and just inherited enough money to buy a home for cash in RB as he wants to get in the Poway school district. He is an engineer, and he fully understands the market dynamics. He is not postponing his purchase even though he knows what is happening. It is what he wants, and what his wife wants and it is contrary to economic wisdom. He is doing it regardless.

So if you want to call it talking out both side of my mouth, which is EXACTLY what you did call it, then fine. Talk to my buyers who just bought a home in Sabre Springs, or some other buyers of mine who bought a place up in sdr’s neighborhood off of Olivenhain. In all those cases I pointed out to them that the market is depreciating and they would get better deals in the next few years. They didn’t WANT to wait. They can afford the homes, they are buying them long term, and they don’t plan to move soon. They aren’t doing what you would do or what alot of other people who would post here do. They know I rent, they know I have advised them to hold off.

I absolutely agree with you about this bubble, the causes of it, and the declines. My postings about why it may be okay to buy are always based on the same thing, if you can afford it, if you will be owning it for a long time, and if you really love it. I don’t use the tired argument about tax breaks, I always acknowledge there will be a decline.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

JWM what I consistently say is that if the decision is purely one of economics then it is 100% of a no brainer to not purchase the house. However to not say that there are other factors to consider when purchasing a home is a fallacy. I am not arguing the fact that the market will not depreciate. As I said, I do believe some areas/types of homes will get hit harder then others. What is clearly evident is that there are some people who are going to buy knowing full well of what is happening. No matter how much it grates against most people who post here, there are people who want to buy now and will buy now knowing that the market will depreciate. Evidently you don’t like that but you don’t deal with these people, I do as do other Realtors. I just got back from an appt in Escondido. This guy is selling his home and just inherited enough money to buy a home for cash in RB as he wants to get in the Poway school district. He is an engineer, and he fully understands the market dynamics. He is not postponing his purchase even though he knows what is happening. It is what he wants, and what his wife wants and it is contrary to economic wisdom. He is doing it regardless.

So if you want to call it talking out both side of my mouth, which is EXACTLY what you did call it, then fine. Talk to my buyers who just bought a home in Sabre Springs, or some other buyers of mine who bought a place up in sdr’s neighborhood off of Olivenhain. In all those cases I pointed out to them that the market is depreciating and they would get better deals in the next few years. They didn’t WANT to wait. They can afford the homes, they are buying them long term, and they don’t plan to move soon. They aren’t doing what you would do or what alot of other people who would post here do. They know I rent, they know I have advised them to hold off.

I absolutely agree with you about this bubble, the causes of it, and the declines. My postings about why it may be okay to buy are always based on the same thing, if you can afford it, if you will be owning it for a long time, and if you really love it. I don’t use the tired argument about tax breaks, I always acknowledge there will be a decline.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Ditto except I own and will never sell my house……NEVER

[sdrealtor]

Ditto except I own and will never sell my house……NEVER

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