- This topic has 432 replies, 40 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 6 months ago by
NotCranky.
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May 19, 2007 at 10:08 AM #53812May 19, 2007 at 10:08 AM #53823
JWM in SD
ParticipantDeeper meaning that reversion to the mean will cause an overshoot when the worst of this is realized by the public at large. As much as I like Rich, I don’t agree with everything he thinks. I’ve moved beyond the housing price symptoms and into the economic causes and I think things are going to get a lot uglier than even the bears realize. Too many people on this site have a very “micro” view of what’s happening right now. The real estate bubble is not local, it’s national. It’s just that areas like San Diego have seen the most extreme effects of it due to the desireability of the location. It’s always been expensive relative to other parts of the country and therefore suffers more from extremes in lending practices and economics. The internet was not present in the last bust. There was major information asymmetry (spelling?). Things are much different now.
May 19, 2007 at 10:18 AM #53816PerryChase
ParticipantI agree with JWM. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
May 19, 2007 at 10:18 AM #53827ParticipantI agree with JWM. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
May 19, 2007 at 11:00 AM #53822Raybyrnes
ParticipantAre there any feelings as to the impact Democrate or Republicans might have with respect to handling a shousing downturn. During the 80’s it was Reagan who did the dirty doublecross to land homeowners. I would think that Republican will do everything they can to keep the economy going so that they can campaign on this. Homeownership up and 401k’s booming. No need to think about the soldiers in Iraq.
Additionally you are still seeing cheap money. http://www.calhfa.ca.gov. 40 year,fixed rate, 10year IO loans, 3% down, at 6%. Seem like there are already sign of the Governemtn stepping in tohelp out. People thought on whether the governemtn might just prolong this long.
May 19, 2007 at 11:00 AM #53833ParticipantAre there any feelings as to the impact Democrate or Republicans might have with respect to handling a shousing downturn. During the 80’s it was Reagan who did the dirty doublecross to land homeowners. I would think that Republican will do everything they can to keep the economy going so that they can campaign on this. Homeownership up and 401k’s booming. No need to think about the soldiers in Iraq.
Additionally you are still seeing cheap money. http://www.calhfa.ca.gov. 40 year,fixed rate, 10year IO loans, 3% down, at 6%. Seem like there are already sign of the Governemtn stepping in tohelp out. People thought on whether the governemtn might just prolong this long.
May 19, 2007 at 11:02 AM #53824latesummer2008
ParticipantYou Ain’t Seen Nothin Yet. Ba-Ba-Ba-Ba-Baby, cause you aint seen nothin yet. Just like BTO (Bachman Turner Overdrive) used to say.
Areas with the greatest appreciation, WILL have the greatest depreciation. If you look at the last RE Bust in 89-91, this is exactly what happened. And, markets DO tend to overshoot more on the DOWNSIDE.. Panic is a stronger force than Greed. People may HAVE TO SELL, but they DON’T HAVE TO BUY.
We are are just getting started. It’s going to be brutal.
Start posting those declines in your neighborhood, using Zillow.May 19, 2007 at 11:02 AM #53835ParticipantYou Ain’t Seen Nothin Yet. Ba-Ba-Ba-Ba-Baby, cause you aint seen nothin yet. Just like BTO (Bachman Turner Overdrive) used to say.
Areas with the greatest appreciation, WILL have the greatest depreciation. If you look at the last RE Bust in 89-91, this is exactly what happened. And, markets DO tend to overshoot more on the DOWNSIDE.. Panic is a stronger force than Greed. People may HAVE TO SELL, but they DON’T HAVE TO BUY.
We are are just getting started. It’s going to be brutal.
Start posting those declines in your neighborhood, using Zillow.May 19, 2007 at 11:19 AM #53828NotCranky
ParticipantLate,
Although We do both agree that we are primates evidently I don’t think I will be going extinct any time soon!
The RE Industry is changing now, with ACCESS to INFORMATION via the INTERNET. Just like every other industry. This is true. However, The INTERNET is more of and aid to me, an agent than a threat to my survival. Don’t underestimate how complicated this job is because you saw so many unsophisticated individuals out pimping houses to thoughtless acentionists in a boom.
You can learn to repair a car bumber to bumper on the net but how many people are going to do it? There is more to it than meets the eye. I will explain more if you want. I recommend you think about getting a license like I have done to others. You might be are the right kind to do your own business but many people aren’t or are not interested in spending the time and they need an honest advocate and an advisor. Most of the time for better or for worse that is a REALTOR in California and will continue to be.Best wishes,
May 19, 2007 at 11:19 AM #53839ParticipantLate,
Although We do both agree that we are primates evidently I don’t think I will be going extinct any time soon!
The RE Industry is changing now, with ACCESS to INFORMATION via the INTERNET. Just like every other industry. This is true. However, The INTERNET is more of and aid to me, an agent than a threat to my survival. Don’t underestimate how complicated this job is because you saw so many unsophisticated individuals out pimping houses to thoughtless acentionists in a boom.
You can learn to repair a car bumber to bumper on the net but how many people are going to do it? There is more to it than meets the eye. I will explain more if you want. I recommend you think about getting a license like I have done to others. You might be are the right kind to do your own business but many people aren’t or are not interested in spending the time and they need an honest advocate and an advisor. Most of the time for better or for worse that is a REALTOR in California and will continue to be.Best wishes,
May 19, 2007 at 12:58 PM #53844ParticipantRustico,
I have been a Licensed Real Estate Broker and Appraiser for 20 YEARS. I understand what it takes to list, market, sell AND appraise property. I choose not to make a living in the RE Industry because, most of the people working in it, are SLIME. All you have to do is look at the mess we are in now. I realize there are some good agents out there, most are not. And yes, SOME people need the services of a GOOD agent. MANY people don’t need the services of the average agent anymore. INFORMATION is more accessible to the public and not just in the hands of the RE Industry.
However, we don’t need to debate this point.
What we need to talk about, is price declines…
May 19, 2007 at 12:58 PM #53855ParticipantRustico,
I have been a Licensed Real Estate Broker and Appraiser for 20 YEARS. I understand what it takes to list, market, sell AND appraise property. I choose not to make a living in the RE Industry because, most of the people working in it, are SLIME. All you have to do is look at the mess we are in now. I realize there are some good agents out there, most are not. And yes, SOME people need the services of a GOOD agent. MANY people don’t need the services of the average agent anymore. INFORMATION is more accessible to the public and not just in the hands of the RE Industry.
However, we don’t need to debate this point.
What we need to talk about, is price declines…
May 19, 2007 at 2:37 PM #53860ParticipantLatesummer I have to say, I commend you on bringing the “bear” back to this site. For a while there, most of the posters were turning into a bunch of handwringers and psuedo permabulls. However, I have to ask, why do you seem to post here at piggington more often than you do at your own site??
I also didn’t realize that you were part of the REIC until I saw that last post from you. That’s very interesting…an insider who is overtly bullish. That is different than what I’m used to seeing here. Usually you have the two SD Realtors posting here but always speaking out of both sides of their mouth(s)….for obvious reasons I suppose.
What lead you to become so bearish when your peers are still trying to float the RE cliches and myths regardless o f how pathetic and transparent it is at this point?
May 19, 2007 at 2:37 PM #53871ParticipantLatesummer I have to say, I commend you on bringing the “bear” back to this site. For a while there, most of the posters were turning into a bunch of handwringers and psuedo permabulls. However, I have to ask, why do you seem to post here at piggington more often than you do at your own site??
I also didn’t realize that you were part of the REIC until I saw that last post from you. That’s very interesting…an insider who is overtly bullish. That is different than what I’m used to seeing here. Usually you have the two SD Realtors posting here but always speaking out of both sides of their mouth(s)….for obvious reasons I suppose.
What lead you to become so bearish when your peers are still trying to float the RE cliches and myths regardless o f how pathetic and transparent it is at this point?
May 19, 2007 at 5:39 PM #53870ParticipantI don’t have a vested interest in RE. And I am a scientist at heart. I enjoy analyzing data and forming conclusions. Mix that with my RE background and this is what you get. I realize these boards are populated by realtors for obvious reasons. My aim is not to bash them, but STATE THE FACTS about what is really going on in RE.
My other site is more informational and not as populated as this one YET. I would think as we go forward, and prices decline more, it will be. I have devised a formula to value properties in a declining market. As that becomes more evident, I think people will become more interested. My hope is that each specific area will have others begin posting price declines as they come in. It is quite easy on Zillow.Lies and deceit is why I left the industry professionally in the first place. I could’nt stand working with lying salespeople, hawking families up to their eyeballs in debt, even when THEY KNEW it was a bad investment. (You don’t want to know what I really think..)
RE is much more interesting when you don’t have to sell it for a living. Just tell it like it is….and try to HELP people.If your curious about the Westside of LA, check out my website :
http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com
I add recent price declines every week for specific areas on the Westside.
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