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NotCranky.
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May 18, 2007 at 9:51 AM #53566May 18, 2007 at 12:37 PM #53601
latesummer2008
Participant40 – 50% off Peak Prices. That’s what I see when all is said and done. This market gets uglier and uglier and we have barely scratched the surface yet. Don’t people realize we have had the biggest increase in appreciation since the Great Depression? And, guess who initiated it all? BANKS. Sound familiar? Denial is finally being replaced by REALITY. Prices HAVE to DECLINE MUCH MORE in order to be affordable. Speculation has ended and their will be very few people playing the “Housing Game” anymore.
This summer will be BAD.
Next summer will be WORSE.
Get ready…
May 18, 2007 at 12:37 PM #53610Participant40 – 50% off Peak Prices. That’s what I see when all is said and done. This market gets uglier and uglier and we have barely scratched the surface yet. Don’t people realize we have had the biggest increase in appreciation since the Great Depression? And, guess who initiated it all? BANKS. Sound familiar? Denial is finally being replaced by REALITY. Prices HAVE to DECLINE MUCH MORE in order to be affordable. Speculation has ended and their will be very few people playing the “Housing Game” anymore.
This summer will be BAD.
Next summer will be WORSE.
Get ready…
May 18, 2007 at 12:41 PM #53537NotCranky
ParticipantThe huge appreciation although it occurred over a long period of time, moved in large chunks over relatively short period of time. I guesstimate we are about to see a large chunk removed.Prices have some what stabilized due to seller’s beliefs that it is spring so there is no need to worry.But as we all know not too much moved ,that creates tension. People are going to realize pretty soon that foreclosure activity doesn’t reflect anything like the bottom and that it is in fact a very bad sign for the market.
Wait until we hear the story. “I just bought a foreclosure and now I am upside down and geting kicked out of my house.”
That ought to do it!As far as the Deeper goes in the “faster and deeper” I don’t get that unless you are predicting a depression? it will go as deep as it takes to find support and then maybe, as some people have said swing a little past briefly.
May 18, 2007 at 12:41 PM #53546ParticipantThe huge appreciation although it occurred over a long period of time, moved in large chunks over relatively short period of time. I guesstimate we are about to see a large chunk removed.Prices have some what stabilized due to seller’s beliefs that it is spring so there is no need to worry.But as we all know not too much moved ,that creates tension. People are going to realize pretty soon that foreclosure activity doesn’t reflect anything like the bottom and that it is in fact a very bad sign for the market.
Wait until we hear the story. “I just bought a foreclosure and now I am upside down and geting kicked out of my house.”
That ought to do it!As far as the Deeper goes in the “faster and deeper” I don’t get that unless you are predicting a depression? it will go as deep as it takes to find support and then maybe, as some people have said swing a little past briefly.
May 18, 2007 at 4:39 PM #53716ParticipantTime to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.
I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.
Check it out here:
May 18, 2007 at 4:39 PM #53727ParticipantTime to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.
I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.
Check it out here:
May 18, 2007 at 5:08 PM #53726ParticipantJWM:
The apprecitaion although long term happend to a large degree in big chunks.I think we are getting ready to take a big chunk off. Prices have held for a few months because sellers believe they would get a price equal or better than recent but pre-spring comps. We all know spring did not work out too well.There is latent downside tension because of this. Also people are going to realize that Foreclosure activity is not a good sign.
Wait until we here the story….”I bought this forclosure and now I am upside down and being kicked out of my house.”
That ought to do it for another chunk.I don’t get the The “deeper” part of “FASTER AND DEEPER” I agree with Rich and others that the bottom will be at some kind of support fundamentals that are relatively normal unless we have a depression and then they will kind of be abnormal.I don’t think we are even close but I haven’t got any kind of a picture of what that is going to look like. I think if we are still here on the blog, collectively we will be able to put it together at the time. I don’t think in real estate it is as hard to time the tops and bottoms as other financial markets. You pay for the predictability with illiquidity.
May 18, 2007 at 5:08 PM #53737ParticipantJWM:
The apprecitaion although long term happend to a large degree in big chunks.I think we are getting ready to take a big chunk off. Prices have held for a few months because sellers believe they would get a price equal or better than recent but pre-spring comps. We all know spring did not work out too well.There is latent downside tension because of this. Also people are going to realize that Foreclosure activity is not a good sign.
Wait until we here the story….”I bought this forclosure and now I am upside down and being kicked out of my house.”
That ought to do it for another chunk.I don’t get the The “deeper” part of “FASTER AND DEEPER” I agree with Rich and others that the bottom will be at some kind of support fundamentals that are relatively normal unless we have a depression and then they will kind of be abnormal.I don’t think we are even close but I haven’t got any kind of a picture of what that is going to look like. I think if we are still here on the blog, collectively we will be able to put it together at the time. I don’t think in real estate it is as hard to time the tops and bottoms as other financial markets. You pay for the predictability with illiquidity.
May 18, 2007 at 6:21 PM #53748DaCounselor
Participant“Time to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.
I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.
Check it out here:
http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com”
____________________________I don’t know about your area, but vast swaths of San Diego are covered in tract home developments, townhomes and condos. With respect to these neighborhoods, simply plotting the sales prices of like models/floorplans/etc. should tell the story. I would imagine that anyone who has identified particular communities they are interested in would be following the sales figures very closely. I’m actually surprised to not see more posts here that simply lay out the history of sales prices for like models/floorplans/etc. Folks can chrystal-ball gaze until their eyes fall out of their heads, but there is no arguing what the sales numbers show.
May 18, 2007 at 6:21 PM #53759Participant“Time to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.
I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.
Check it out here:
http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com”
____________________________I don’t know about your area, but vast swaths of San Diego are covered in tract home developments, townhomes and condos. With respect to these neighborhoods, simply plotting the sales prices of like models/floorplans/etc. should tell the story. I would imagine that anyone who has identified particular communities they are interested in would be following the sales figures very closely. I’m actually surprised to not see more posts here that simply lay out the history of sales prices for like models/floorplans/etc. Folks can chrystal-ball gaze until their eyes fall out of their heads, but there is no arguing what the sales numbers show.
May 19, 2007 at 7:28 AM #53792ParticipantStart Local Posts of Price Declines in specific neighborhoods. These blogs are getting more and more popular as they are not influenced by the RE Industry. It’s the straight poop. Hopefully buyers can do their own research now, instead of relying on BAD DATA.
The RE Industry is changing now, with ACCESS to INFORMATION via the INTERNET. Just like every other industry. Sorry, Brokers, Agents and Banks, it’s time to adapt, or you are in danger of extinction.
“Natural Selection”
May 19, 2007 at 7:28 AM #53803ParticipantStart Local Posts of Price Declines in specific neighborhoods. These blogs are getting more and more popular as they are not influenced by the RE Industry. It’s the straight poop. Hopefully buyers can do their own research now, instead of relying on BAD DATA.
The RE Industry is changing now, with ACCESS to INFORMATION via the INTERNET. Just like every other industry. Sorry, Brokers, Agents and Banks, it’s time to adapt, or you are in danger of extinction.
“Natural Selection”
May 19, 2007 at 7:42 AM #537964plexowner
Participantusury: an unconscionable or exorbitant rate or amount of interest; interest in excess of a legal rate charged to a borrower for the use of money
The Fed’s cost of money is essentially zero so ANY interest charged is usurious (are you aware that We The People are paying interest to a private corporation for something they created out of thin air? and you don’t think that is criminal?)
The Federal Reserve violates the US Constitution which states that only the United States government has the power to create money
The US Constitution says “No State shall … make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts”
The Constitution has never been amended to allow either the Federal Reserve or a non-silver/gold currency
~
I agree that silver/gold standards are not ideal
It may be however that a silver/gold standard is the best that we can hope for – our founding fathers obviously thought so and they were students of history
May 19, 2007 at 7:42 AM #53807Participantusury: an unconscionable or exorbitant rate or amount of interest; interest in excess of a legal rate charged to a borrower for the use of money
The Fed’s cost of money is essentially zero so ANY interest charged is usurious (are you aware that We The People are paying interest to a private corporation for something they created out of thin air? and you don’t think that is criminal?)
The Federal Reserve violates the US Constitution which states that only the United States government has the power to create money
The US Constitution says “No State shall … make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts”
The Constitution has never been amended to allow either the Federal Reserve or a non-silver/gold currency
~
I agree that silver/gold standards are not ideal
It may be however that a silver/gold standard is the best that we can hope for – our founding fathers obviously thought so and they were students of history
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