- This topic has 432 replies, 40 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 9 months ago by
NotCranky.
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May 17, 2007 at 7:08 PM #53446May 17, 2007 at 7:08 PM #53454
NotCranky
ParticipantLate, I am with you on your opinion here “IMHO, I believe the price declines will be QUICKER and DEEPER, than most think.” I am in San Diego. Who do you think is influencng the opinion of “most people” Indeed who are most people?
Let me do a little whistle blowing…
What do you think the post “soft landing” mantra is for Realtor’s?
I think it goes like this…“Yes there are definitley some signs out there in the market of weakness,Its going to take a REAL LONG TIME, some areas will get hit harder than others, Inflation will mitigate a high mortgage some what. Interest rates are good and probably going to go up putting houses out of reach lending is drying up. The neighborhood you want looks pretty good you should be allright. Please be my next greatest fool.”
It classic and predictable.Dress that pig up all the way down.
Are “most people” Influenced by this?
May 17, 2007 at 7:08 PM #53448Bugs
ParticipantIt’s bad, but you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Sit back, pop open a cold one and relax, because (IMO) it won’t get REALLY interesting til the end of the 3rd qtr 2007, possibly the beginning of 2008.
By then:
The last of the exotic financing programs should be officially declared extinct, and
The current batch of foreclosures will be listed for resale, and
The majority of the residential construction that’s going to get done will be done, thereby putting those people out of work to much ballyhoo, and
The YTD statistics for volumes and pricing will make apparent to everyone that 2007 is going down worse than 2006; and more importantly, it will become clear that this is not a temporary blip and things aren’t going to get better in 2008.
May 17, 2007 at 7:08 PM #53456ParticipantIt’s bad, but you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Sit back, pop open a cold one and relax, because (IMO) it won’t get REALLY interesting til the end of the 3rd qtr 2007, possibly the beginning of 2008.
By then:
The last of the exotic financing programs should be officially declared extinct, and
The current batch of foreclosures will be listed for resale, and
The majority of the residential construction that’s going to get done will be done, thereby putting those people out of work to much ballyhoo, and
The YTD statistics for volumes and pricing will make apparent to everyone that 2007 is going down worse than 2006; and more importantly, it will become clear that this is not a temporary blip and things aren’t going to get better in 2008.
May 17, 2007 at 7:55 PM #53455sdrealtor
ParticipantFall will cool off more but that is a seasonal thing that happens each year so the real question will be YOY comparisons. I expect what I have for the last 6 months. Stable to slightly decreasing prices through Spring, accelerating price declines in Fall/Winter (about 5% which is about $25,000 to $50,000 per year), lather, rinse, repeat.
I’d love to see it all happen quickly in a year or two as it would be far less painful. But I just dont see things that way, I see a long painful decline ahead continuing for at least 3 more years.
May 17, 2007 at 7:55 PM #53463ParticipantFall will cool off more but that is a seasonal thing that happens each year so the real question will be YOY comparisons. I expect what I have for the last 6 months. Stable to slightly decreasing prices through Spring, accelerating price declines in Fall/Winter (about 5% which is about $25,000 to $50,000 per year), lather, rinse, repeat.
I’d love to see it all happen quickly in a year or two as it would be far less painful. But I just dont see things that way, I see a long painful decline ahead continuing for at least 3 more years.
May 18, 2007 at 6:58 AM #53491PD
ParticipantI think the declines are going to be faster and deeper than they have been. It is getting harder for people to get loans, which is the only thing that is going to slow down the GFs still buying (or force them to pay less).
May 18, 2007 at 6:58 AM #53500ParticipantI think the declines are going to be faster and deeper than they have been. It is getting harder for people to get loans, which is the only thing that is going to slow down the GFs still buying (or force them to pay less).
May 18, 2007 at 7:20 AM #53497JWM in SD
ParticipantIt will happen faster & deeper because of the internet. Look at the attention these housing blogs are getting. Lanser at OC Register reached out to Ben Jones over a year ago. Anyone looked the RE Section at the OC Register site lately? Its all bad news all the time. He knew it was coming and that it was not just a bunch of bitter renters bitching about being priced out. The MSM is not going to let this go. They will latch onto it like a pit bull. Other MSM will follow the OC Register example as things become more obvious and J6Pack will begin to finally figure out what is going on…albeit 2 years too late.
May 18, 2007 at 7:20 AM #53506ParticipantIt will happen faster & deeper because of the internet. Look at the attention these housing blogs are getting. Lanser at OC Register reached out to Ben Jones over a year ago. Anyone looked the RE Section at the OC Register site lately? Its all bad news all the time. He knew it was coming and that it was not just a bunch of bitter renters bitching about being priced out. The MSM is not going to let this go. They will latch onto it like a pit bull. Other MSM will follow the OC Register example as things become more obvious and J6Pack will begin to finally figure out what is going on…albeit 2 years too late.
May 18, 2007 at 8:52 AM #53531latesummer2008
ParticipantAppraisal Problems R Next… As prices begin dropping, banks are going to want more money down. THEY KNOW houses are not worth the “Negotiated Value”. 25% down will become the new norm for CLOSING transactions. If price declines become swifter, the amount put down or interest rate will increase. Banks will have there hands full of properties and don’t want anymore.
This is the tip of the iceberg, ladies and gentleman…
May 18, 2007 at 8:52 AM #53540ParticipantAppraisal Problems R Next… As prices begin dropping, banks are going to want more money down. THEY KNOW houses are not worth the “Negotiated Value”. 25% down will become the new norm for CLOSING transactions. If price declines become swifter, the amount put down or interest rate will increase. Banks will have there hands full of properties and don’t want anymore.
This is the tip of the iceberg, ladies and gentleman…
May 18, 2007 at 9:10 AM #53527Participantdupe
May 18, 2007 at 9:10 AM #53536Participantdupe
May 18, 2007 at 9:51 AM #53557
barnaby33ParticipantI haven’t read the actual book yet and probably need to, but a central banking system is not a criminal organization and to say so makes you sound like a loon.
There are pros and cons to any standard of currency and its control. Why is it that every time someone starts talking about our central banks or others the conversation takes on a tone, at least for me, of a coming tirade against a global jewish conspiracy to control the planet?
Gold standards aren’t great either. If private banks didn’t control the currency system the govt would. Do you want our congress in charge of how much money gets printed? Holy crap talk about politicizing our money supply.
Josh
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