Massive 26% Markdown on Carmel Valley McMansion

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[Coronita]

All of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.

Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.

And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.

That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

All of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.

Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.

And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.

That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

All of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.

Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.

And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.

That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

All of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.

Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.

And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.

That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Author]

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