A market day like this finally brought the Vrudny guy out of hiding. I wrote back in Dec that I needed to take a break from Piggington.com, and I did stay away for a few months. Ahh, but I missed you all.
🙂
To all you optimists back in 2006 who told Powayseller, me, and others that we were fools to put money on the down side of the market….
So far you’ve been right. I give credit when it is due.
I’m down nearly 10% on my portfolio since I took those bear market positions. Ouch.
Roubini was WRONG, both on 4QTR06 GDP numbers, and his prediction of a recession in early 1QTR07
Call it more delusion on my part, but I still believe the recession will come this year along with the beginning of a major stock market correction. However, our timing was too early thinking it would come in Jan ’07
I’m holding onto my bear market positions, particularly when I see market days like this.
At least I’m having fun. I’m up $1,500 today on QQQ Puts. Well, at least that’s the good news.
The original cost was $5,000 on those Jan ’08 QQQ Puts. I bought 1/3 in 09/2006 and 2/3 in 11/2006. Obviously, I got my ass kicked on those I bought in September. However, just today I’m up $1,500 overall on my QQQ PUTS. Bottom line is I am still $800 out-of-the money, net, on those two options buys; however, it is looking good now on moving back into the money.
It is easy to rip Roubini because of his incorrectly predicting the recession onset in Jan ’08. Yet, I should have simply followed that advice, instead of being over-eager.
I should have taken my bear positions in late December (not earlier), following his original predictions. For example, had I done that I would be in the money today on the QQQ options.
Ahhh, but either way I’m glad I ONLY bought five grand worth. Ha! Playing options is playing with fire.
Some of us have been shorting the subprime lenders for a long time, recently it has really paid off. I was in NEW since last year and it wasn’t doing much but now I’m up 70%. LEND is also doing very well for shorts.
For those with individual broker accounts, there is no reason to short the entire market, shorting subprime and homebuilders will pay off more. Eventually the overall market will follow suit but not as sharply.
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