Magic Ball Needed

[sdrealtor]

waitingpatiently,
You are looking in my backyard (actually your kids would love my backyard) and I own exactly what you are looking for. I would venture to guess that there is no one in this area (agents or otherwise) that knows that area better and has been more on target with predictions for this area over the last 5 years (both up and down). For the record, I have been on this site over 2 years. I pointed out a peak 950K for a decent newer 4/3 with 2500 to 3000 sq ft a couple years and called for a 30% fall bringing these homes down to about 675K at the bottom which I predicted would come between 2010 and 2012. So far everything has proceeded exactly as I expected. No one has stuck their neck out further than I with specific predictions for a specific area.

With luck you could get a decent newer 4/3 with at least 2500 sq ft and everything you are looking for between 775K and 800K today which you already know. Next Spring, I believe it will be possible to find that for 750K. Beyond that it will all get dicey as the last 50K to 75K bleeds out between late 2009 and 2012.

The real problem will be finding the home you want at those price levels and not just any house. Demand would be very high for homes like this if prices dip below 700K. Lowballing will get you a house but it might not get you the one you seek. IMO, Getting the one you really want will take the ability to recognize the right one and the willingness to strike when you find it.

All this of course is just my opinion. Take it for what its worth……………

[waitingpatiently]

sdrealtor-
Thanks for the post..I was hoping that you would chime in. I think that we became piggs around the same time!! I would love to sit and pick your brain about the area. We moved here from Shadowridge and love it (we live close to Mission Estancia in the cheapest rental I could find here) I have tried to talk to people around town to get a feel of different developments but most people say they are all great. I have heard comments that OPE is a snobbish school and that LC Valley are stepford wives. Although, that could be from people that are just bitter or it could be the truth. My husband and I are very joe regulars that don’t feel the need to keep up with the Jones’. We are jeans/shorts, t-shirt/tank and flip-flop type of family that spends most weekend at the beach. But we also like the feel of the newer developments. I am afraid that we will buy in a neighborhood and I will have nothing in common with my neighbors.

We have been looking at the MLS for so long that I am not even sure that we know exactly what we want. We started just wanting a 3/2 sfr and then it went to 4/3sfr, now I would love a 5/4sfr (office, gym, craftroom/kids office) As prices have been dropping my taste has risen. I am starting to think that I won’t mind overpaying by 10% if that means that I can get the house that I love. We are so young and are planning to live in the house until our children graduate from college and then move to our beachfront house (hopefully) that it seems silly to live in our hotel-like house for 75k. We don’t have pictures up and we haven’t unloaded most of our boxes because I don’t want to do it again.

I don’t feel the need to buy at the absolute bottom. We sold in 2006 and feel that if we bought today we are still loads of money ahead. So how does one decide what prices fundamentaly should be? Do you take 2003 prices and add 8% a year?

We went to a couple of open house this weekend in La Costa Valley for the first time and I was a little disappointed with the floor plans. I did not want to start looking at houses before for fear that it would make me want to buy. Do you know how we could get information about the different develpments and floor plans of each? We have of course absolute things that we need. My husband works from home or will when we move, so we need a room that is pretty secluded from the play areas in the house (a master retreat would work great or another room upstairs), I would like the kids rooms to be jack-n-jill or at least have their own bath in their rooms and the kitchen and family room need to be open. We basically want what everyone wants, which is going to be a problem.

Do you have a separate email that I could email you more personal questions that I don’t want the world to know about?

Sorry for the rambling….

[waitingpatiently]

sdrealtor-
Thanks for the post..I was hoping that you would chime in. I think that we became piggs around the same time!! I would love to sit and pick your brain about the area. We moved here from Shadowridge and love it (we live close to Mission Estancia in the cheapest rental I could find here) I have tried to talk to people around town to get a feel of different developments but most people say they are all great. I have heard comments that OPE is a snobbish school and that LC Valley are stepford wives. Although, that could be from people that are just bitter or it could be the truth. My husband and I are very joe regulars that don’t feel the need to keep up with the Jones’. We are jeans/shorts, t-shirt/tank and flip-flop type of family that spends most weekend at the beach. But we also like the feel of the newer developments. I am afraid that we will buy in a neighborhood and I will have nothing in common with my neighbors.

We have been looking at the MLS for so long that I am not even sure that we know exactly what we want. We started just wanting a 3/2 sfr and then it went to 4/3sfr, now I would love a 5/4sfr (office, gym, craftroom/kids office) As prices have been dropping my taste has risen. I am starting to think that I won’t mind overpaying by 10% if that means that I can get the house that I love. We are so young and are planning to live in the house until our children graduate from college and then move to our beachfront house (hopefully) that it seems silly to live in our hotel-like house for 75k. We don’t have pictures up and we haven’t unloaded most of our boxes because I don’t want to do it again.

I don’t feel the need to buy at the absolute bottom. We sold in 2006 and feel that if we bought today we are still loads of money ahead. So how does one decide what prices fundamentaly should be? Do you take 2003 prices and add 8% a year?

We went to a couple of open house this weekend in La Costa Valley for the first time and I was a little disappointed with the floor plans. I did not want to start looking at houses before for fear that it would make me want to buy. Do you know how we could get information about the different develpments and floor plans of each? We have of course absolute things that we need. My husband works from home or will when we move, so we need a room that is pretty secluded from the play areas in the house (a master retreat would work great or another room upstairs), I would like the kids rooms to be jack-n-jill or at least have their own bath in their rooms and the kitchen and family room need to be open. We basically want what everyone wants, which is going to be a problem.

Do you have a separate email that I could email you more personal questions that I don’t want the world to know about?

Sorry for the rambling….

[waitingpatiently]

sdrealtor-
Thanks for the post..I was hoping that you would chime in. I think that we became piggs around the same time!! I would love to sit and pick your brain about the area. We moved here from Shadowridge and love it (we live close to Mission Estancia in the cheapest rental I could find here) I have tried to talk to people around town to get a feel of different developments but most people say they are all great. I have heard comments that OPE is a snobbish school and that LC Valley are stepford wives. Although, that could be from people that are just bitter or it could be the truth. My husband and I are very joe regulars that don’t feel the need to keep up with the Jones’. We are jeans/shorts, t-shirt/tank and flip-flop type of family that spends most weekend at the beach. But we also like the feel of the newer developments. I am afraid that we will buy in a neighborhood and I will have nothing in common with my neighbors.

We have been looking at the MLS for so long that I am not even sure that we know exactly what we want. We started just wanting a 3/2 sfr and then it went to 4/3sfr, now I would love a 5/4sfr (office, gym, craftroom/kids office) As prices have been dropping my taste has risen. I am starting to think that I won’t mind overpaying by 10% if that means that I can get the house that I love. We are so young and are planning to live in the house until our children graduate from college and then move to our beachfront house (hopefully) that it seems silly to live in our hotel-like house for 75k. We don’t have pictures up and we haven’t unloaded most of our boxes because I don’t want to do it again.

I don’t feel the need to buy at the absolute bottom. We sold in 2006 and feel that if we bought today we are still loads of money ahead. So how does one decide what prices fundamentaly should be? Do you take 2003 prices and add 8% a year?

We went to a couple of open house this weekend in La Costa Valley for the first time and I was a little disappointed with the floor plans. I did not want to start looking at houses before for fear that it would make me want to buy. Do you know how we could get information about the different develpments and floor plans of each? We have of course absolute things that we need. My husband works from home or will when we move, so we need a room that is pretty secluded from the play areas in the house (a master retreat would work great or another room upstairs), I would like the kids rooms to be jack-n-jill or at least have their own bath in their rooms and the kitchen and family room need to be open. We basically want what everyone wants, which is going to be a problem.

Do you have a separate email that I could email you more personal questions that I don’t want the world to know about?

Sorry for the rambling….

[waitingpatiently]

sdrealtor-
Thanks for the post..I was hoping that you would chime in. I think that we became piggs around the same time!! I would love to sit and pick your brain about the area. We moved here from Shadowridge and love it (we live close to Mission Estancia in the cheapest rental I could find here) I have tried to talk to people around town to get a feel of different developments but most people say they are all great. I have heard comments that OPE is a snobbish school and that LC Valley are stepford wives. Although, that could be from people that are just bitter or it could be the truth. My husband and I are very joe regulars that don’t feel the need to keep up with the Jones’. We are jeans/shorts, t-shirt/tank and flip-flop type of family that spends most weekend at the beach. But we also like the feel of the newer developments. I am afraid that we will buy in a neighborhood and I will have nothing in common with my neighbors.

We have been looking at the MLS for so long that I am not even sure that we know exactly what we want. We started just wanting a 3/2 sfr and then it went to 4/3sfr, now I would love a 5/4sfr (office, gym, craftroom/kids office) As prices have been dropping my taste has risen. I am starting to think that I won’t mind overpaying by 10% if that means that I can get the house that I love. We are so young and are planning to live in the house until our children graduate from college and then move to our beachfront house (hopefully) that it seems silly to live in our hotel-like house for 75k. We don’t have pictures up and we haven’t unloaded most of our boxes because I don’t want to do it again.

I don’t feel the need to buy at the absolute bottom. We sold in 2006 and feel that if we bought today we are still loads of money ahead. So how does one decide what prices fundamentaly should be? Do you take 2003 prices and add 8% a year?

We went to a couple of open house this weekend in La Costa Valley for the first time and I was a little disappointed with the floor plans. I did not want to start looking at houses before for fear that it would make me want to buy. Do you know how we could get information about the different develpments and floor plans of each? We have of course absolute things that we need. My husband works from home or will when we move, so we need a room that is pretty secluded from the play areas in the house (a master retreat would work great or another room upstairs), I would like the kids rooms to be jack-n-jill or at least have their own bath in their rooms and the kitchen and family room need to be open. We basically want what everyone wants, which is going to be a problem.

Do you have a separate email that I could email you more personal questions that I don’t want the world to know about?

Sorry for the rambling….

[waitingpatiently]

sdrealtor-
Thanks for the post..I was hoping that you would chime in. I think that we became piggs around the same time!! I would love to sit and pick your brain about the area. We moved here from Shadowridge and love it (we live close to Mission Estancia in the cheapest rental I could find here) I have tried to talk to people around town to get a feel of different developments but most people say they are all great. I have heard comments that OPE is a snobbish school and that LC Valley are stepford wives. Although, that could be from people that are just bitter or it could be the truth. My husband and I are very joe regulars that don’t feel the need to keep up with the Jones’. We are jeans/shorts, t-shirt/tank and flip-flop type of family that spends most weekend at the beach. But we also like the feel of the newer developments. I am afraid that we will buy in a neighborhood and I will have nothing in common with my neighbors.

We have been looking at the MLS for so long that I am not even sure that we know exactly what we want. We started just wanting a 3/2 sfr and then it went to 4/3sfr, now I would love a 5/4sfr (office, gym, craftroom/kids office) As prices have been dropping my taste has risen. I am starting to think that I won’t mind overpaying by 10% if that means that I can get the house that I love. We are so young and are planning to live in the house until our children graduate from college and then move to our beachfront house (hopefully) that it seems silly to live in our hotel-like house for 75k. We don’t have pictures up and we haven’t unloaded most of our boxes because I don’t want to do it again.

I don’t feel the need to buy at the absolute bottom. We sold in 2006 and feel that if we bought today we are still loads of money ahead. So how does one decide what prices fundamentaly should be? Do you take 2003 prices and add 8% a year?

We went to a couple of open house this weekend in La Costa Valley for the first time and I was a little disappointed with the floor plans. I did not want to start looking at houses before for fear that it would make me want to buy. Do you know how we could get information about the different develpments and floor plans of each? We have of course absolute things that we need. My husband works from home or will when we move, so we need a room that is pretty secluded from the play areas in the house (a master retreat would work great or another room upstairs), I would like the kids rooms to be jack-n-jill or at least have their own bath in their rooms and the kitchen and family room need to be open. We basically want what everyone wants, which is going to be a problem.

Do you have a separate email that I could email you more personal questions that I don’t want the world to know about?

Sorry for the rambling….

[Ex-SD]

Judging by the state of the present economy and viewing all of the available information re. the number of homes that have already been foreclosed, plus the likely future foreclosures from ARM resets over the next several years, etc, we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation. Inflation follows no rules or boundaries when it comes to bursting, housing bubbles. The measure will be the availability of loans, mortgage rates, number of qualified buyers in a given market, etc.
A good example of what could happen in San Diego is occurring right now is southern Florida (and other parts of FL, as well).
http://piggington.com/florida_luxury_home_market_shows_signs_of_wear

It’s your money…………………………… but if you fall for the hype that the housing market may be close to the bottom in 2009 and that you will only overpay by around 10%, you are seriously deluding yourselves and you’ll be paying all of that overpriced housing money back to the bank plus interest for a long time.

[Ex-SD]

Judging by the state of the present economy and viewing all of the available information re. the number of homes that have already been foreclosed, plus the likely future foreclosures from ARM resets over the next several years, etc, we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation. Inflation follows no rules or boundaries when it comes to bursting, housing bubbles. The measure will be the availability of loans, mortgage rates, number of qualified buyers in a given market, etc.
A good example of what could happen in San Diego is occurring right now is southern Florida (and other parts of FL, as well).
http://piggington.com/florida_luxury_home_market_shows_signs_of_wear

It’s your money…………………………… but if you fall for the hype that the housing market may be close to the bottom in 2009 and that you will only overpay by around 10%, you are seriously deluding yourselves and you’ll be paying all of that overpriced housing money back to the bank plus interest for a long time.

[Ex-SD]

Judging by the state of the present economy and viewing all of the available information re. the number of homes that have already been foreclosed, plus the likely future foreclosures from ARM resets over the next several years, etc, we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation. Inflation follows no rules or boundaries when it comes to bursting, housing bubbles. The measure will be the availability of loans, mortgage rates, number of qualified buyers in a given market, etc.
A good example of what could happen in San Diego is occurring right now is southern Florida (and other parts of FL, as well).
http://piggington.com/florida_luxury_home_market_shows_signs_of_wear

It’s your money…………………………… but if you fall for the hype that the housing market may be close to the bottom in 2009 and that you will only overpay by around 10%, you are seriously deluding yourselves and you’ll be paying all of that overpriced housing money back to the bank plus interest for a long time.

[Ex-SD]

Judging by the state of the present economy and viewing all of the available information re. the number of homes that have already been foreclosed, plus the likely future foreclosures from ARM resets over the next several years, etc, we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation. Inflation follows no rules or boundaries when it comes to bursting, housing bubbles. The measure will be the availability of loans, mortgage rates, number of qualified buyers in a given market, etc.
A good example of what could happen in San Diego is occurring right now is southern Florida (and other parts of FL, as well).
http://piggington.com/florida_luxury_home_market_shows_signs_of_wear

It’s your money…………………………… but if you fall for the hype that the housing market may be close to the bottom in 2009 and that you will only overpay by around 10%, you are seriously deluding yourselves and you’ll be paying all of that overpriced housing money back to the bank plus interest for a long time.

[Ex-SD]

Judging by the state of the present economy and viewing all of the available information re. the number of homes that have already been foreclosed, plus the likely future foreclosures from ARM resets over the next several years, etc, we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation. Inflation follows no rules or boundaries when it comes to bursting, housing bubbles. The measure will be the availability of loans, mortgage rates, number of qualified buyers in a given market, etc.
A good example of what could happen in San Diego is occurring right now is southern Florida (and other parts of FL, as well).
http://piggington.com/florida_luxury_home_market_shows_signs_of_wear

It’s your money…………………………… but if you fall for the hype that the housing market may be close to the bottom in 2009 and that you will only overpay by around 10%, you are seriously deluding yourselves and you’ll be paying all of that overpriced housing money back to the bank plus interest for a long time.

[sdrealtor]

WP,
We share the same hopes and dreams in life. We live the same lifestyle also. The open houses in LCV this weekend werent the best floorplans. I have original floorplans for every builder in my office. What you describe exists in a few neighborhoods there.

As for the schools, sure OPE has some snobbish folks but there are plenty of down to earth families there also. They used to have a real superiority cvomplex at that school because of test scores which were high because there is no multi-family housing in olivenhain which would tend to lower the average scores. With the building of LCV and LCO, Mission Estancia and ECC got the same favorable demographics and have been beating them since. With that said, OPE is a great school and some of my best friends have children there.

LCV has its share of stepford wives and some uppity folks but for the most part is pretty down to earth. Keep in mind that when built in 1999, many of these homes sold at or below $400,000. The community is still full of teachers, firefighters, forest rangers, small business owners, professional salesguys, engineers and regular old techies. The uppity folks tend to live in the higher end neighborhoods and/or are not original owners. There are still tons of orignal owners there with plans to stay until their rugrats graduate high school/college.

If you want, you can email me personal questions at [email protected]. Its a separate email I set up a while back for anonymous conversations. I dont check it often, so let me know you sent something here and I will be sure to respond.

[sdrealtor]

WP,
We share the same hopes and dreams in life. We live the same lifestyle also. The open houses in LCV this weekend werent the best floorplans. I have original floorplans for every builder in my office. What you describe exists in a few neighborhoods there.

As for the schools, sure OPE has some snobbish folks but there are plenty of down to earth families there also. They used to have a real superiority cvomplex at that school because of test scores which were high because there is no multi-family housing in olivenhain which would tend to lower the average scores. With the building of LCV and LCO, Mission Estancia and ECC got the same favorable demographics and have been beating them since. With that said, OPE is a great school and some of my best friends have children there.

LCV has its share of stepford wives and some uppity folks but for the most part is pretty down to earth. Keep in mind that when built in 1999, many of these homes sold at or below $400,000. The community is still full of teachers, firefighters, forest rangers, small business owners, professional salesguys, engineers and regular old techies. The uppity folks tend to live in the higher end neighborhoods and/or are not original owners. There are still tons of orignal owners there with plans to stay until their rugrats graduate high school/college.

If you want, you can email me personal questions at [email protected]. Its a separate email I set up a while back for anonymous conversations. I dont check it often, so let me know you sent something here and I will be sure to respond.

[sdrealtor]

WP,
We share the same hopes and dreams in life. We live the same lifestyle also. The open houses in LCV this weekend werent the best floorplans. I have original floorplans for every builder in my office. What you describe exists in a few neighborhoods there.

As for the schools, sure OPE has some snobbish folks but there are plenty of down to earth families there also. They used to have a real superiority cvomplex at that school because of test scores which were high because there is no multi-family housing in olivenhain which would tend to lower the average scores. With the building of LCV and LCO, Mission Estancia and ECC got the same favorable demographics and have been beating them since. With that said, OPE is a great school and some of my best friends have children there.

LCV has its share of stepford wives and some uppity folks but for the most part is pretty down to earth. Keep in mind that when built in 1999, many of these homes sold at or below $400,000. The community is still full of teachers, firefighters, forest rangers, small business owners, professional salesguys, engineers and regular old techies. The uppity folks tend to live in the higher end neighborhoods and/or are not original owners. There are still tons of orignal owners there with plans to stay until their rugrats graduate high school/college.

If you want, you can email me personal questions at [email protected]. Its a separate email I set up a while back for anonymous conversations. I dont check it often, so let me know you sent something here and I will be sure to respond.

[sdrealtor]

WP,
We share the same hopes and dreams in life. We live the same lifestyle also. The open houses in LCV this weekend werent the best floorplans. I have original floorplans for every builder in my office. What you describe exists in a few neighborhoods there.

As for the schools, sure OPE has some snobbish folks but there are plenty of down to earth families there also. They used to have a real superiority cvomplex at that school because of test scores which were high because there is no multi-family housing in olivenhain which would tend to lower the average scores. With the building of LCV and LCO, Mission Estancia and ECC got the same favorable demographics and have been beating them since. With that said, OPE is a great school and some of my best friends have children there.

LCV has its share of stepford wives and some uppity folks but for the most part is pretty down to earth. Keep in mind that when built in 1999, many of these homes sold at or below $400,000. The community is still full of teachers, firefighters, forest rangers, small business owners, professional salesguys, engineers and regular old techies. The uppity folks tend to live in the higher end neighborhoods and/or are not original owners. There are still tons of orignal owners there with plans to stay until their rugrats graduate high school/college.

If you want, you can email me personal questions at [email protected]. Its a separate email I set up a while back for anonymous conversations. I dont check it often, so let me know you sent something here and I will be sure to respond.

[Author]

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