Looks like another Housing Bubble is about to burst

[ocrenter]

starting at 10:30, footage of fraudulent loans using fake documentations and inflated sales price reminiscent of our own bubble from 10 years ago.

[The-Shoveler]

Nope IMO anyway.

The thing they did not say is that CHINA IS THE BANK.

The tier one cities are doing fine.

The bad loans will be covered up IMO.

Also I was amazed (I saw it my self) If the Gov says there will be 15% inflation next month, there will be 15% inflation next month.

Money will be printed, problems will be paved over IMO anyway.

[ocrenter]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Nope IMO anyway.

The thing they did not say is that CHINA IS THE BANK.

The tier one cities are doing fine.

The bad loans will be covered up IMO.

Also I was amazed (I saw it my self) If the Gov says there will be 15% inflation next month, there will be 15% inflation next month.

Money will be printed, problems will be paved over IMO anyway.[/quote]

That’s like saying NYC, LA, SF, Chicago are doing fine so everything will be ok.

Don’t you think it is a bit weird that if the gov says 15% inflation there will be 15% inflation? kinda like how their 7% projected growth are always matched by 7% growth rate? That’s some super awesome projection!

[The-Shoveler]

Not saying its not weird, its just they have near TOTAL control and the ability to cover almost anything up they want or pave it over with freshly printed money.

[ocrenter]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Not saying its not weird, its just they have near TOTAL control and the ability to cover almost anything up they want or pave it over with freshly printed money.[/quote]

That I do agree with, they do have near total control and ability to cover up anything they want. That is true. You saw how even everyday pollution magically disappear during major events too. 😉

[Coronita]

Yes, and you know what’s happening right? All the slightly weaithier ones (including the ones that made an honest business) are quickly trying to move their assets to Europe, the U.S. and Canada. Because when the crapper hits the fan, anyone that is wealth(ier) is a sitting target by the government.

So, no, this isn’t simply like the 80ies when Japan heavily invested abroad. There definitely is that going on too. But I think for a lot of people, there is an interest to have a “get the hell out of the country” plan.

Planned economies are great….. as long as you are the beneficiary of it and the government doesn’t decide to turn around and make you the scapegoat….

Maybe you haven’t noticed but there has been certain cases in which hedge funds/investment groups in China had shorted the market, only for the government to come back and confiscate those profits and jailed certain fund managers. Some say it was because of inside trading. Others say, it was just a way for the government to claim down on those bearish on the market.

Investing in China is the wild wild west right now. Some CEO’s on the board are shorting their own company stock! No conflict of interest there (end sarcasm)

Vancouver did interesting recently. They passed a 25% tax on home purchases by non-citizens I think. And you know what happened? Drove up real estate prices in Seattle, WA.

[spdrun]

Speaking of NYC, the bubble in high-end condos is already bursting in NYC and probably other places. New regulations on purchases through shell corporations plus people realizing it’s stupid to pay $10+ million for a place that’s vacant 99% of the time and costing $100,000+ per year in fees and taxes.

http://gothamist.com/2016/09/09/nelson_haha.php

I’m of the opinion that real estate only has value in that it’s cheaper to buy at prevailing rates vs renting the same property. Especially in cities where renters are heavily protected, and having a lease is almost like owning.

If it’s much more expensive to buy vs rent, market is ripe for a short-term correction. Market doesn’t have to be an entire city, BTW. It can be a specific class of properties, like high-end condos in Manhattan.

[scaredyclassic]

my zillow appraisal went up 150k in the last few months. not sure if that signals anything re crash. i definitely wouldnt pay that amt. now.

[FlyerInHi]

Shoveler, I agree that the government will paper over loans.
Essentially, people will get condos for free or nearly free which is actually good public policy to give poor people decent housing and elevate the bar.

Maybe they’ll create a new housing ministry.

That’s what Singapore did with its poor citizens before, except the government there directly built the housing.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=scaredyclassic]my zillow appraisal went up 150k in the last few months. not sure if that signals anything re crash. i definitely wouldnt pay that amt. now.[/quote]

There is a big difference between over priced and over built (or over leveraged).

Over Priced usually just means things move slower, over built (or over leveraged) means it is likely to crash (no matter if it was over priced or not).
Also does not apply the same in China where the Gov IS the banker.

IMO anyway.

[spdrun]

Poor people already get “nearly free” housing via Section 8. I think we’d see a guaranteed basic income sooner than more specific help for housing. Fed rates are already near zero, and bankers need to take their cut. Huge lobby, as big as health insurance, and we couldn’t pass national health insurance.

[spdrun]

my zillow appraisal went up 150k in the last few months. not sure if that signals anything re crash. i definitely wouldnt pay that amt. now.

That’s an automated system that’s perhaps working on previous changes in value and extrapolating. An estimate without seeing the property of comps (inventory is tight, so there might be a dearth of recent comps) doesn’t really reflect reality.

[FlyerInHi]

spd, section 8 is not the same a pride of ownership.

If you look at NYC people there live in shit section 8 neighborhoods. Ok, Ok, there is rent control too, but decades old and not helpful the poor today. Take a trip to Singapore and compare to NYC. Then look at objective economic metrics of the 2 world-class cities.

In Singapore, decades ago, the government built condos on good land and sold them to people. They took peasants with no education and turned them to polite, modern, city dwellers.

I think that China is executing the Singapore model on a grand scale. I wish them the best because we all want to people to live better.

Free people from the burden of crushing housing payments (as % of income) and the economy will blossom in consumer spending. That’s what we enjoyed after WWII. Remember housing subsidies for returning veterans and new city dwellers? Fred Trump made a fortune.

Here, too bad we didn’t listen to Elizabeth Warren and given poor people housing ownership. Our fixation on the free markets and private mortgage contracts prevented us from carrying out good public policy.

In China, those new condos/houses will be filled. The government will make sure of that. Give the masses a free condo as part of the social contract. Elevate their living standards and educational level and the economy will enjoy a new renaissance.

[spdrun]

Better the economy not blossom. More crap imported from China just means more worldwide environmental degradation. Growth is truly a cancer.

I like what the Swedes are planning … pay people to fix existing stuff versus buying new stuff in order to reduce the waste stream…

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/20/europe/sweden-money-for-repairs-trnd/

Re: Singapore, it’s an island smaller than NYC (as a whole, not just Manhattan). Much easier to run things centrally in a tiny country than in the US.

[FlyerInHi]

Spd, consumer spending can take many forms. But we want people to have disposable income to spend in the economy otherwise things stop.

I think China doesn’t get enough credit for what they achieved and the scale of economic development. I’m surprised Trump likes Russia, a country of alcoholics over the wealth and grand projects of China.

I hope China is able to power through the next decade and lift their second and third tier population. The world would benefit greatly.

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