long timers

[pwilson]

hi,
Love the site, it’s opened my mind to no end.
One thing I’ve yet to hear discussed is what role do people who have owned their homes for more than 10 years play in this declining market? I’ve lived in Canyon Lake since 2003 and most of the people seem to have lived here quite a while and are relatively unaffected by the crazy runup in prices. It makes me wonder how many people in SoCal are long timers vs. casual flippers/future forclosures and what kind of stickiness, if any they provide to prices.

[temeculaguy]

We know they are a significant portion of the population and it has been discussed especially by sdrealtor and SD realtor when referencing established neighborhoods (SD often laments that his beloved Old Scripps has few distressed properties) and how those neighborhoods have few homes for sale and even less “must sell” inventory. Canyon Lake is easily in that category and will not have many distressed properties because of the demographic and age of the property. Enclaves of old money and older high end custom homes will be the last to fall and will see the least negative effects of the crash but they are not immune. A few months back Bugs wrote an extensive post that I deemed the “real estate butterfly effect” and I think it summed it up perfectly. Regardless of the demographic, all real estate within driving range has an effect of each other. Sure the retired rock stars and sports stars in Canyon lake that own outright will not have to sell but value is set by the market and the buyers and people move up and down between the demographics. If less are moving up than are moving down, fewer investors than divestors we have a basic market force at play. Will the loss of half of the appraised value of one’s home cause them to be homeless, no. But the sheer number of additional units added to the market and the overwhelming number of new cistomers that were added that will soon be removed from that market will (or is) cause a downward snowball that will show no preference to any area other than time frame. And for more on that, search for older posts relating to my own theory “the pain train.”

The other issue is that we have no idea how much money these people took out of their homes in the last five years, in the words of the Oracle “when the tide goes out we will see who’s naked.”

[temeculaguy]

We know they are a significant portion of the population and it has been discussed especially by sdrealtor and SD realtor when referencing established neighborhoods (SD often laments that his beloved Old Scripps has few distressed properties) and how those neighborhoods have few homes for sale and even less “must sell” inventory. Canyon Lake is easily in that category and will not have many distressed properties because of the demographic and age of the property. Enclaves of old money and older high end custom homes will be the last to fall and will see the least negative effects of the crash but they are not immune. A few months back Bugs wrote an extensive post that I deemed the “real estate butterfly effect” and I think it summed it up perfectly. Regardless of the demographic, all real estate within driving range has an effect of each other. Sure the retired rock stars and sports stars in Canyon lake that own outright will not have to sell but value is set by the market and the buyers and people move up and down between the demographics. If less are moving up than are moving down, fewer investors than divestors we have a basic market force at play. Will the loss of half of the appraised value of one’s home cause them to be homeless, no. But the sheer number of additional units added to the market and the overwhelming number of new cistomers that were added that will soon be removed from that market will (or is) cause a downward snowball that will show no preference to any area other than time frame. And for more on that, search for older posts relating to my own theory “the pain train.”

The other issue is that we have no idea how much money these people took out of their homes in the last five years, in the words of the Oracle “when the tide goes out we will see who’s naked.”

[temeculaguy]

We know they are a significant portion of the population and it has been discussed especially by sdrealtor and SD realtor when referencing established neighborhoods (SD often laments that his beloved Old Scripps has few distressed properties) and how those neighborhoods have few homes for sale and even less “must sell” inventory. Canyon Lake is easily in that category and will not have many distressed properties because of the demographic and age of the property. Enclaves of old money and older high end custom homes will be the last to fall and will see the least negative effects of the crash but they are not immune. A few months back Bugs wrote an extensive post that I deemed the “real estate butterfly effect” and I think it summed it up perfectly. Regardless of the demographic, all real estate within driving range has an effect of each other. Sure the retired rock stars and sports stars in Canyon lake that own outright will not have to sell but value is set by the market and the buyers and people move up and down between the demographics. If less are moving up than are moving down, fewer investors than divestors we have a basic market force at play. Will the loss of half of the appraised value of one’s home cause them to be homeless, no. But the sheer number of additional units added to the market and the overwhelming number of new cistomers that were added that will soon be removed from that market will (or is) cause a downward snowball that will show no preference to any area other than time frame. And for more on that, search for older posts relating to my own theory “the pain train.”

The other issue is that we have no idea how much money these people took out of their homes in the last five years, in the words of the Oracle “when the tide goes out we will see who’s naked.”

[temeculaguy]

We know they are a significant portion of the population and it has been discussed especially by sdrealtor and SD realtor when referencing established neighborhoods (SD often laments that his beloved Old Scripps has few distressed properties) and how those neighborhoods have few homes for sale and even less “must sell” inventory. Canyon Lake is easily in that category and will not have many distressed properties because of the demographic and age of the property. Enclaves of old money and older high end custom homes will be the last to fall and will see the least negative effects of the crash but they are not immune. A few months back Bugs wrote an extensive post that I deemed the “real estate butterfly effect” and I think it summed it up perfectly. Regardless of the demographic, all real estate within driving range has an effect of each other. Sure the retired rock stars and sports stars in Canyon lake that own outright will not have to sell but value is set by the market and the buyers and people move up and down between the demographics. If less are moving up than are moving down, fewer investors than divestors we have a basic market force at play. Will the loss of half of the appraised value of one’s home cause them to be homeless, no. But the sheer number of additional units added to the market and the overwhelming number of new cistomers that were added that will soon be removed from that market will (or is) cause a downward snowball that will show no preference to any area other than time frame. And for more on that, search for older posts relating to my own theory “the pain train.”

The other issue is that we have no idea how much money these people took out of their homes in the last five years, in the words of the Oracle “when the tide goes out we will see who’s naked.”

[temeculaguy]

We know they are a significant portion of the population and it has been discussed especially by sdrealtor and SD realtor when referencing established neighborhoods (SD often laments that his beloved Old Scripps has few distressed properties) and how those neighborhoods have few homes for sale and even less “must sell” inventory. Canyon Lake is easily in that category and will not have many distressed properties because of the demographic and age of the property. Enclaves of old money and older high end custom homes will be the last to fall and will see the least negative effects of the crash but they are not immune. A few months back Bugs wrote an extensive post that I deemed the “real estate butterfly effect” and I think it summed it up perfectly. Regardless of the demographic, all real estate within driving range has an effect of each other. Sure the retired rock stars and sports stars in Canyon lake that own outright will not have to sell but value is set by the market and the buyers and people move up and down between the demographics. If less are moving up than are moving down, fewer investors than divestors we have a basic market force at play. Will the loss of half of the appraised value of one’s home cause them to be homeless, no. But the sheer number of additional units added to the market and the overwhelming number of new cistomers that were added that will soon be removed from that market will (or is) cause a downward snowball that will show no preference to any area other than time frame. And for more on that, search for older posts relating to my own theory “the pain train.”

The other issue is that we have no idea how much money these people took out of their homes in the last five years, in the words of the Oracle “when the tide goes out we will see who’s naked.”

[SD Realtor]

Hi pwilson –

Yes as TG pointed out I do whine alot about my particular neighborhood, at least the older part of it that has more well established homeowners. TG referenced the post Bugs had regarding the butterfly effect and I do agree that in the end everyone will feel the pinch to varying degrees. By how much remains to be seen. I am of the opinion that very well entrenched communities will feel it less due to the sheer stubborness of sellers who will simply not sell. I am not saying these places will not be immune. There are always suckers who ATM’d the home so they will either dump it or lose it … yet to me neighborhoods do not free fall based on foreclosures alone unless the composition of the neighborhood is of that ilk. To me foreclosures and distress is the ignition and kindling… once Joe seller has to compete with them, then the brushfire starts. So in some well entrenched neighborhoods Joe Seller will not compete…. He will hunker down…Does this provide full immunity for the neighborhood? Not at all… In fact it may provide a little immunity, or none at all… It is just a theory I have and to me may help to explain the variability. Also demand for the neighborhood will play a role.

Of course I am probably all wrong… I guess we will see in a few years.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi pwilson –

Yes as TG pointed out I do whine alot about my particular neighborhood, at least the older part of it that has more well established homeowners. TG referenced the post Bugs had regarding the butterfly effect and I do agree that in the end everyone will feel the pinch to varying degrees. By how much remains to be seen. I am of the opinion that very well entrenched communities will feel it less due to the sheer stubborness of sellers who will simply not sell. I am not saying these places will not be immune. There are always suckers who ATM’d the home so they will either dump it or lose it … yet to me neighborhoods do not free fall based on foreclosures alone unless the composition of the neighborhood is of that ilk. To me foreclosures and distress is the ignition and kindling… once Joe seller has to compete with them, then the brushfire starts. So in some well entrenched neighborhoods Joe Seller will not compete…. He will hunker down…Does this provide full immunity for the neighborhood? Not at all… In fact it may provide a little immunity, or none at all… It is just a theory I have and to me may help to explain the variability. Also demand for the neighborhood will play a role.

Of course I am probably all wrong… I guess we will see in a few years.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi pwilson –

Yes as TG pointed out I do whine alot about my particular neighborhood, at least the older part of it that has more well established homeowners. TG referenced the post Bugs had regarding the butterfly effect and I do agree that in the end everyone will feel the pinch to varying degrees. By how much remains to be seen. I am of the opinion that very well entrenched communities will feel it less due to the sheer stubborness of sellers who will simply not sell. I am not saying these places will not be immune. There are always suckers who ATM’d the home so they will either dump it or lose it … yet to me neighborhoods do not free fall based on foreclosures alone unless the composition of the neighborhood is of that ilk. To me foreclosures and distress is the ignition and kindling… once Joe seller has to compete with them, then the brushfire starts. So in some well entrenched neighborhoods Joe Seller will not compete…. He will hunker down…Does this provide full immunity for the neighborhood? Not at all… In fact it may provide a little immunity, or none at all… It is just a theory I have and to me may help to explain the variability. Also demand for the neighborhood will play a role.

Of course I am probably all wrong… I guess we will see in a few years.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi pwilson –

Yes as TG pointed out I do whine alot about my particular neighborhood, at least the older part of it that has more well established homeowners. TG referenced the post Bugs had regarding the butterfly effect and I do agree that in the end everyone will feel the pinch to varying degrees. By how much remains to be seen. I am of the opinion that very well entrenched communities will feel it less due to the sheer stubborness of sellers who will simply not sell. I am not saying these places will not be immune. There are always suckers who ATM’d the home so they will either dump it or lose it … yet to me neighborhoods do not free fall based on foreclosures alone unless the composition of the neighborhood is of that ilk. To me foreclosures and distress is the ignition and kindling… once Joe seller has to compete with them, then the brushfire starts. So in some well entrenched neighborhoods Joe Seller will not compete…. He will hunker down…Does this provide full immunity for the neighborhood? Not at all… In fact it may provide a little immunity, or none at all… It is just a theory I have and to me may help to explain the variability. Also demand for the neighborhood will play a role.

Of course I am probably all wrong… I guess we will see in a few years.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi pwilson –

Yes as TG pointed out I do whine alot about my particular neighborhood, at least the older part of it that has more well established homeowners. TG referenced the post Bugs had regarding the butterfly effect and I do agree that in the end everyone will feel the pinch to varying degrees. By how much remains to be seen. I am of the opinion that very well entrenched communities will feel it less due to the sheer stubborness of sellers who will simply not sell. I am not saying these places will not be immune. There are always suckers who ATM’d the home so they will either dump it or lose it … yet to me neighborhoods do not free fall based on foreclosures alone unless the composition of the neighborhood is of that ilk. To me foreclosures and distress is the ignition and kindling… once Joe seller has to compete with them, then the brushfire starts. So in some well entrenched neighborhoods Joe Seller will not compete…. He will hunker down…Does this provide full immunity for the neighborhood? Not at all… In fact it may provide a little immunity, or none at all… It is just a theory I have and to me may help to explain the variability. Also demand for the neighborhood will play a role.

Of course I am probably all wrong… I guess we will see in a few years.

SD Realtor

[patientlywaiting]

I read that the average holding period of a house is 5 years (according to NAR). I don’t have the source right off hand but it’s about 5 years if I remember well.

SD Realtor what do the NAR and CAR say?

The periods of loans is even shorter that’s why the industry loves prepayment penalties, points, etc…

[patientlywaiting]

I read that the average holding period of a house is 5 years (according to NAR). I don’t have the source right off hand but it’s about 5 years if I remember well.

SD Realtor what do the NAR and CAR say?

The periods of loans is even shorter that’s why the industry loves prepayment penalties, points, etc…

[patientlywaiting]

I read that the average holding period of a house is 5 years (according to NAR). I don’t have the source right off hand but it’s about 5 years if I remember well.

SD Realtor what do the NAR and CAR say?

The periods of loans is even shorter that’s why the industry loves prepayment penalties, points, etc…

[patientlywaiting]

I read that the average holding period of a house is 5 years (according to NAR). I don’t have the source right off hand but it’s about 5 years if I remember well.

SD Realtor what do the NAR and CAR say?

The periods of loans is even shorter that’s why the industry loves prepayment penalties, points, etc…

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