Lol, Party Like is 1999..

[Coronita]

Deja Vu. 1999 was a fun year.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-november-4-2019-133059483.html

NASDAQ and S&P500 all time high.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO the main difference is Dumb money is sitting this one out.

And interest rates are at historic lows and falling.
Plus no one seems interested in taking the punch bowl away.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO the main difference is Dumb money is sitting this one out.

And interest rates are at historic lows and falling.
Plus no one seems interested in taking the punch bowl away.[/quote]

I am not complaining, I’m laughing my ass off …because I am probably dumb money…lol….
[img_assist|nid=26899|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=200|height=200]

[Coronita]

lol…redux…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-04/risky-mortgage-bonds-are-back-and-delinquencies-are-piling-up

[The-Shoveler]

Dumb money does not mean your dumb, it just means your a retail investor.

Smart money just means professional fund managers/agencies/brokers/banks etc…

IMO we are still a long way from 2004-7 as far as mortgages.

[Coronita]

I know Shoveler… but in my case I think both definitions of dumb equally apply. And that’s ok. In America, it took me many years to learn this is a country where really dumb people can still make decent money, often more so that smart people that do analysis to paralysis. I’ll take dumb for the win.

Hey if Cardi B can make millions with a song like I like it like that, anyone can!

[burghMan]

[quote=flu]I know Shoveler… but in my case I think both definitions of dumb equally apply. And that’s ok. In America, it took me many years to learn this is a country where really dumb people can still make decent money, often more so that smart people that do analysis to paralysis. I’ll take dumb for the win.

Hey if Cardi B can make millions with a song like I like it like that, anyone can![/quote]

[Coronita]

When you are dumb or think you are dumb, life is much simpler. You don’t constantly feel pressured to “out-do” all the other dumb people in the world that does better than you financially. that’s the trap that many very intelligent people, PHD’s and engineers, make. They think because of their superior intellect, they should have no problems mastering the day to day “easier” things other people are able to be successful with. And when they fall short or miss opportunity, it doesn’t compute. “How could that be? I’m smarter….” Nope, not really. So just be dumb. Life is much .ore simple and happulier. and you’ll probably do better too!

All the people that made a shitload of money on real estate. Do you think many of them even know about Case Shiller ?

And work wise the moment I stopped doing the really hard work of hands on detail oriented engineering only smart people do, I’m now doing much dumber tasks like most senior directors. I attend meetings, I coordinate, inremoce roadblocks other managers directors or situations create, I maken high level architectural decisions.
..my hours are better and I get paid a lot more for doing this, more than when I was doing a lot smarter work….

Dumb is good. Dumb for the win.

[FlyerInHi]

Are you saying merit is overrated and that luck (and all that encompasses) is more relevant to success? I suppose it depends how you define success

I say you want it all — good looks, good health, money, street smarts, intellect, knowledge, etc… If you can, why not?

[spdrun]

1999 was a fun year. Dot.bomb crash in 2000-1 was even more fun. Low rates aren’t the savior that everyone makes them out to be — if they were, Europe would be growing at 10% per year.

[gzz]

Flu, I thought you were a conservative index funder? That didn’t make you 30% YTD did it?

[Coronita]

[quote=gzz]Flu, I thought you were a conservative index funder? That didn’t make you 30% YTD did it?[/quote]

I am.. Like I said before that portion of my portfolio is over at Vanguard and I dont touch and it beats my self directed accounts over the long period of time consistently.

However, this year I got lucky. It had a lot to do with selling Jan 2020 expiring AMD call options with a $15/share strike price I bought when AMD was still in the single digits, lol.

Skill had nothing to do with it. just dumb luck.

But proceeds from dumb luck, after taxes, goes to the passive accounts where I can’t do something that stupid… or paying off mortgages (previously)…so less risky assets have no debt.

S&P500 actually is doing very well this year. It’s 22.5% so it’s not that much worse…less of a headache probably … people who index probably would do better than trying to time the markets. investing $5000 is completely different than say investing $500k. you wouldn’t be nearly as reckless with the later as the former.

[temeculaguy]

Flu that is awesome! You keep living your best life and ignore the haters.

I’ve got all the grand kids college funds tied mostly to the S&P which makes me nervous because they are time certain withdrawals. I worry the winning streak cannot continue. I find it ironic that the enemy to their college fund is a socialist who promises free college. I try to convince myself that it is a win/win or at least a can’t lose scenario. Then I’m reminded of the adage “you think it’s expensive now, wait till it’s free.”

[Coronita]

[quote=temeculaguy]Flu that is awesome! You keep living your best life and ignore the haters.

I’ve got all the grand kids college funds tied mostly to the S&P which makes me nervous because they are time certain withdrawals. I worry the winning streak cannot continue. I find it ironic that the enemy to their college fund is a socialist who promises free college. I try to convince myself that it is a win/win or at least a can’t lose scenario. Then I’m reminded of the adage “you think it’s expensive now, wait till it’s free.”[/quote]

I don’t think you need to worry as much if you have 20 years before your grandkids needs it….unless they will be using it for k-12 private school… Personally, for a 529k, I’m not trying for that maximum return year after year. I am just trying to beat that 4.25% cost of college increase each year in a tax advantage account. If I can do that, I win…With the oldest 529k account, I started out just doing the vanguard total stock market index and vanguard total international stock market inbex at roughly a 70/30 split….It’s getting closer taking distributions from it and it will be the first of 3 accounts that will be used…I’m slowly moving elsewhere into other funds..[img_assist|nid=26900|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=500]

The problem with Vanguard’s 529k… you can only have a maximum of 5 funds, and you can only reallocate twice per year. In the past, it wasn’t a big issue because the allocation was only in two funds and not being able to make changes frequently was a good thing since I couldn’t mess things up like I normally do… but now I’m trying to reduce the stock market allocation, it’s a little bit more difficult to figure out where. Some of it went/is going into vanguard inflation protected securities…..I hate this bond fund or bonds in general. Part is going into Vanguard Star fund….not a big fan this fund too because it’s basically a fund of funds…. And part of it is going into Vanguard income portfolio, which is basically more bonds…. The tiny allocation into the Vanguard High Yield (junk) bond was a mistake from not confirming my reallocation correctly and will be fixed next year. Whoops. Did I mention that I hated bonds? Lol…

Oh well. I barely noticed the slow monthly contributions throughout the years. Probably a few less eating lunch and dinner at a restaurants, a few less track days… so my kid has a option to go to a decent school somewhere and not be swamped with student debt … well worth the hassle imho.

I’m not terribly worried about politics. Obama, Trump, Warren… it’s just a shitshow that doesnt really put food on the table at the end of the day.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=temeculaguy] Then I’m reminded of the adage “you think it’s expensive now, wait till it’s free.”[/quote]

College ,

If it becomes free I am thinking of going back to get either an MBA or masters in political science.

We are already seeing degree deflation, just give it a few years after it’s free.

I guess the cs guys will still get the bucks for the foreseeable future anyway.

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