Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Let’s just see how “safe” those investments in China are….
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Allan from Fallbrook.
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AuthorPosts
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January 21, 2008 at 8:15 AM #11577
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January 21, 2008 at 8:18 AM #139494
Coronita
Participant..and as such, you won't find a bank representative talk, especially since the banks are still somewhat tied to a state run agency.
Despite how screwed up things are here in the States, just remember, things can be screwed up a heck of a lot more overseas.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
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January 21, 2008 at 8:18 AM #139709
Coronita
Participant..and as such, you won't find a bank representative talk, especially since the banks are still somewhat tied to a state run agency.
Despite how screwed up things are here in the States, just remember, things can be screwed up a heck of a lot more overseas.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
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January 21, 2008 at 8:18 AM #139730
Coronita
Participant..and as such, you won't find a bank representative talk, especially since the banks are still somewhat tied to a state run agency.
Despite how screwed up things are here in the States, just remember, things can be screwed up a heck of a lot more overseas.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
-
January 21, 2008 at 8:18 AM #139756
Coronita
Participant..and as such, you won't find a bank representative talk, especially since the banks are still somewhat tied to a state run agency.
Despite how screwed up things are here in the States, just remember, things can be screwed up a heck of a lot more overseas.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
-
January 21, 2008 at 8:18 AM #139801
Coronita
Participant..and as such, you won't find a bank representative talk, especially since the banks are still somewhat tied to a state run agency.
Despite how screwed up things are here in the States, just remember, things can be screwed up a heck of a lot more overseas.
[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]
—– Sour grapes for everyone!
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January 21, 2008 at 8:24 AM #139504
nostradamus
ParticipantChina’s market is directly tied to the markets of her two largest exportees: the U.S. and Japan. At the same time, China has a huge domestic consumer market which is rapidly growing in terms of wealth and income. The decline of western civilization will serve as a catalyst for a shifted focus to domestic markets, a switch to a gold-backed RMB, and a decoupling from the dollar and yen. I wouldn’t want to hold Chinese securities at the moment but I’m keeping my eyes on them for future long-term growth.
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January 21, 2008 at 8:31 AM #139524
stockstradr
ParticipantThe Shanghai exchange moved up like a rocket from ~1000 points up to 6000 points in only a few years, and has since fallen about a thousand points in a few months.
The Asia markets will crash and burn. It will be very ugly.
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January 21, 2008 at 9:19 AM #139554
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: Wow. All of Asia encapsulated in two pithy, trenchant sentences!
So, all of the Asian markets will crash and burn? Are we talking a redux of the ’97 debacle, or did you have something more serious in mind? You’ll need to be a just a bit more specific to have any sort of credibility with that kind of prognostication.
Nost: It will be interesting to see how a country known for its statist tendencies will react to the sub-prime crisis hitting China. I agree with your call as to what they should do, but do you really believe they will do it? We have seen years of them stockpiling dollar denominated assets as nothing other than a means of hedging the yuan. Their attempts to cool the Chinese economy have been ham handed (which is not to say that our monetary and economic policy is any better) and not terribly effective. I don’t get the sense that there is a clearly defined strategy at work here. Of course, I don’t get that sense here in the US, either.
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January 21, 2008 at 9:48 AM #139574
nostradamus
ParticipantHi Allan,
You’re right, that is what I think China *should* do but whether or not she will is yet to be seen. I’ll keep my eyes on it though. -
January 21, 2008 at 9:58 AM #139589
kewp
ParticipantMan, Peter Schiff must be taking it in the shorts these days.
I wonder what his response is going to be?
I suspect he considers this all just a symptom of deleveraging on a global scale.
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January 21, 2008 at 9:58 AM #139805
kewp
ParticipantMan, Peter Schiff must be taking it in the shorts these days.
I wonder what his response is going to be?
I suspect he considers this all just a symptom of deleveraging on a global scale.
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January 21, 2008 at 9:58 AM #139823
kewp
ParticipantMan, Peter Schiff must be taking it in the shorts these days.
I wonder what his response is going to be?
I suspect he considers this all just a symptom of deleveraging on a global scale.
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January 21, 2008 at 9:58 AM #139851
kewp
ParticipantMan, Peter Schiff must be taking it in the shorts these days.
I wonder what his response is going to be?
I suspect he considers this all just a symptom of deleveraging on a global scale.
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January 21, 2008 at 9:58 AM #139897
kewp
ParticipantMan, Peter Schiff must be taking it in the shorts these days.
I wonder what his response is going to be?
I suspect he considers this all just a symptom of deleveraging on a global scale.
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January 21, 2008 at 10:59 AM #139658
Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantNost: In my mind, it has always been a question as to how a centrally planned communist government will react when (somewhat) free market forces start exerting real pressure on their economy.
Add to that the inevitable backlash once these various businessmen, entrepeneurs, and financiers start demanding an equal voice in the running of the country.
In the background, you have a large and very disaffected peasantry, all of whom are watching their way of life becoming progressively more disenfranchised.
Throw in pollution, endemic AIDS in certain parts of the country, a growing and vocal cadre of former Chinese Army officers that don’t like the present government and are agitating for its ouster, no rule of law to protect intellectual property and a yawning gap when it comes to lawyers and upper management.
You now have a real interesting soup pot bubbling.
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January 21, 2008 at 12:52 PM #139835
stockstradr
ParticipantRegards Asian stock marketes…
When Asian stock markes are hyper-appreciated to the tune of 600% in three years (Shanghai,for example) I don’t need to defend my opinion those markets are prime for a 1929-style crash. In fact, the % drop will be far more severe than our 1929 stock market collapse.
Go read Barron’s round table discussion from two weekends back. When you have multiple widely respected Asia-sector experts like Marc Faber saying he thinks EVERY Asia index is in a bubble, then you should worry.
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January 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM #139888
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: I wasn’t asking you to defend your opinion; I was asking you to support it. Two sentences about a supposed meltdown in the Asian markets does not a prognostication make.
You’re an engineer, and should be familiar with the concept of showing your math. I run a specialty engineering company, and I know that without support, our “opinions” would have the substance of wind.
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January 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM #140103
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: I wasn’t asking you to defend your opinion; I was asking you to support it. Two sentences about a supposed meltdown in the Asian markets does not a prognostication make.
You’re an engineer, and should be familiar with the concept of showing your math. I run a specialty engineering company, and I know that without support, our “opinions” would have the substance of wind.
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January 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM #140125
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: I wasn’t asking you to defend your opinion; I was asking you to support it. Two sentences about a supposed meltdown in the Asian markets does not a prognostication make.
You’re an engineer, and should be familiar with the concept of showing your math. I run a specialty engineering company, and I know that without support, our “opinions” would have the substance of wind.
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January 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM #140152
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: I wasn’t asking you to defend your opinion; I was asking you to support it. Two sentences about a supposed meltdown in the Asian markets does not a prognostication make.
You’re an engineer, and should be familiar with the concept of showing your math. I run a specialty engineering company, and I know that without support, our “opinions” would have the substance of wind.
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January 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM #140199
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: I wasn’t asking you to defend your opinion; I was asking you to support it. Two sentences about a supposed meltdown in the Asian markets does not a prognostication make.
You’re an engineer, and should be familiar with the concept of showing your math. I run a specialty engineering company, and I know that without support, our “opinions” would have the substance of wind.
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January 21, 2008 at 12:52 PM #140046
stockstradr
ParticipantRegards Asian stock marketes…
When Asian stock markes are hyper-appreciated to the tune of 600% in three years (Shanghai,for example) I don’t need to defend my opinion those markets are prime for a 1929-style crash. In fact, the % drop will be far more severe than our 1929 stock market collapse.
Go read Barron’s round table discussion from two weekends back. When you have multiple widely respected Asia-sector experts like Marc Faber saying he thinks EVERY Asia index is in a bubble, then you should worry.
-
January 21, 2008 at 12:52 PM #140070
stockstradr
ParticipantRegards Asian stock marketes…
When Asian stock markes are hyper-appreciated to the tune of 600% in three years (Shanghai,for example) I don’t need to defend my opinion those markets are prime for a 1929-style crash. In fact, the % drop will be far more severe than our 1929 stock market collapse.
Go read Barron’s round table discussion from two weekends back. When you have multiple widely respected Asia-sector experts like Marc Faber saying he thinks EVERY Asia index is in a bubble, then you should worry.
-
January 21, 2008 at 12:52 PM #140097
stockstradr
ParticipantRegards Asian stock marketes…
When Asian stock markes are hyper-appreciated to the tune of 600% in three years (Shanghai,for example) I don’t need to defend my opinion those markets are prime for a 1929-style crash. In fact, the % drop will be far more severe than our 1929 stock market collapse.
Go read Barron’s round table discussion from two weekends back. When you have multiple widely respected Asia-sector experts like Marc Faber saying he thinks EVERY Asia index is in a bubble, then you should worry.
-
January 21, 2008 at 12:52 PM #140144
stockstradr
ParticipantRegards Asian stock marketes…
When Asian stock markes are hyper-appreciated to the tune of 600% in three years (Shanghai,for example) I don’t need to defend my opinion those markets are prime for a 1929-style crash. In fact, the % drop will be far more severe than our 1929 stock market collapse.
Go read Barron’s round table discussion from two weekends back. When you have multiple widely respected Asia-sector experts like Marc Faber saying he thinks EVERY Asia index is in a bubble, then you should worry.
-
January 21, 2008 at 10:59 AM #139874
Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantNost: In my mind, it has always been a question as to how a centrally planned communist government will react when (somewhat) free market forces start exerting real pressure on their economy.
Add to that the inevitable backlash once these various businessmen, entrepeneurs, and financiers start demanding an equal voice in the running of the country.
In the background, you have a large and very disaffected peasantry, all of whom are watching their way of life becoming progressively more disenfranchised.
Throw in pollution, endemic AIDS in certain parts of the country, a growing and vocal cadre of former Chinese Army officers that don’t like the present government and are agitating for its ouster, no rule of law to protect intellectual property and a yawning gap when it comes to lawyers and upper management.
You now have a real interesting soup pot bubbling.
-
January 21, 2008 at 10:59 AM #139893
Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantNost: In my mind, it has always been a question as to how a centrally planned communist government will react when (somewhat) free market forces start exerting real pressure on their economy.
Add to that the inevitable backlash once these various businessmen, entrepeneurs, and financiers start demanding an equal voice in the running of the country.
In the background, you have a large and very disaffected peasantry, all of whom are watching their way of life becoming progressively more disenfranchised.
Throw in pollution, endemic AIDS in certain parts of the country, a growing and vocal cadre of former Chinese Army officers that don’t like the present government and are agitating for its ouster, no rule of law to protect intellectual property and a yawning gap when it comes to lawyers and upper management.
You now have a real interesting soup pot bubbling.
-
January 21, 2008 at 10:59 AM #139922
Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantNost: In my mind, it has always been a question as to how a centrally planned communist government will react when (somewhat) free market forces start exerting real pressure on their economy.
Add to that the inevitable backlash once these various businessmen, entrepeneurs, and financiers start demanding an equal voice in the running of the country.
In the background, you have a large and very disaffected peasantry, all of whom are watching their way of life becoming progressively more disenfranchised.
Throw in pollution, endemic AIDS in certain parts of the country, a growing and vocal cadre of former Chinese Army officers that don’t like the present government and are agitating for its ouster, no rule of law to protect intellectual property and a yawning gap when it comes to lawyers and upper management.
You now have a real interesting soup pot bubbling.
-
January 21, 2008 at 10:59 AM #139967
Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantNost: In my mind, it has always been a question as to how a centrally planned communist government will react when (somewhat) free market forces start exerting real pressure on their economy.
Add to that the inevitable backlash once these various businessmen, entrepeneurs, and financiers start demanding an equal voice in the running of the country.
In the background, you have a large and very disaffected peasantry, all of whom are watching their way of life becoming progressively more disenfranchised.
Throw in pollution, endemic AIDS in certain parts of the country, a growing and vocal cadre of former Chinese Army officers that don’t like the present government and are agitating for its ouster, no rule of law to protect intellectual property and a yawning gap when it comes to lawyers and upper management.
You now have a real interesting soup pot bubbling.
-
January 21, 2008 at 9:48 AM #139790
nostradamus
ParticipantHi Allan,
You’re right, that is what I think China *should* do but whether or not she will is yet to be seen. I’ll keep my eyes on it though. -
January 21, 2008 at 9:48 AM #139810
nostradamus
ParticipantHi Allan,
You’re right, that is what I think China *should* do but whether or not she will is yet to be seen. I’ll keep my eyes on it though. -
January 21, 2008 at 9:48 AM #139836
nostradamus
ParticipantHi Allan,
You’re right, that is what I think China *should* do but whether or not she will is yet to be seen. I’ll keep my eyes on it though. -
January 21, 2008 at 9:48 AM #139882
nostradamus
ParticipantHi Allan,
You’re right, that is what I think China *should* do but whether or not she will is yet to be seen. I’ll keep my eyes on it though. -
January 21, 2008 at 9:19 AM #139769
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: Wow. All of Asia encapsulated in two pithy, trenchant sentences!
So, all of the Asian markets will crash and burn? Are we talking a redux of the ’97 debacle, or did you have something more serious in mind? You’ll need to be a just a bit more specific to have any sort of credibility with that kind of prognostication.
Nost: It will be interesting to see how a country known for its statist tendencies will react to the sub-prime crisis hitting China. I agree with your call as to what they should do, but do you really believe they will do it? We have seen years of them stockpiling dollar denominated assets as nothing other than a means of hedging the yuan. Their attempts to cool the Chinese economy have been ham handed (which is not to say that our monetary and economic policy is any better) and not terribly effective. I don’t get the sense that there is a clearly defined strategy at work here. Of course, I don’t get that sense here in the US, either.
-
January 21, 2008 at 9:19 AM #139789
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: Wow. All of Asia encapsulated in two pithy, trenchant sentences!
So, all of the Asian markets will crash and burn? Are we talking a redux of the ’97 debacle, or did you have something more serious in mind? You’ll need to be a just a bit more specific to have any sort of credibility with that kind of prognostication.
Nost: It will be interesting to see how a country known for its statist tendencies will react to the sub-prime crisis hitting China. I agree with your call as to what they should do, but do you really believe they will do it? We have seen years of them stockpiling dollar denominated assets as nothing other than a means of hedging the yuan. Their attempts to cool the Chinese economy have been ham handed (which is not to say that our monetary and economic policy is any better) and not terribly effective. I don’t get the sense that there is a clearly defined strategy at work here. Of course, I don’t get that sense here in the US, either.
-
January 21, 2008 at 9:19 AM #139816
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: Wow. All of Asia encapsulated in two pithy, trenchant sentences!
So, all of the Asian markets will crash and burn? Are we talking a redux of the ’97 debacle, or did you have something more serious in mind? You’ll need to be a just a bit more specific to have any sort of credibility with that kind of prognostication.
Nost: It will be interesting to see how a country known for its statist tendencies will react to the sub-prime crisis hitting China. I agree with your call as to what they should do, but do you really believe they will do it? We have seen years of them stockpiling dollar denominated assets as nothing other than a means of hedging the yuan. Their attempts to cool the Chinese economy have been ham handed (which is not to say that our monetary and economic policy is any better) and not terribly effective. I don’t get the sense that there is a clearly defined strategy at work here. Of course, I don’t get that sense here in the US, either.
-
January 21, 2008 at 9:19 AM #139862
Allan from Fallbrook
Participantstockstradr: Wow. All of Asia encapsulated in two pithy, trenchant sentences!
So, all of the Asian markets will crash and burn? Are we talking a redux of the ’97 debacle, or did you have something more serious in mind? You’ll need to be a just a bit more specific to have any sort of credibility with that kind of prognostication.
Nost: It will be interesting to see how a country known for its statist tendencies will react to the sub-prime crisis hitting China. I agree with your call as to what they should do, but do you really believe they will do it? We have seen years of them stockpiling dollar denominated assets as nothing other than a means of hedging the yuan. Their attempts to cool the Chinese economy have been ham handed (which is not to say that our monetary and economic policy is any better) and not terribly effective. I don’t get the sense that there is a clearly defined strategy at work here. Of course, I don’t get that sense here in the US, either.
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January 21, 2008 at 8:31 AM #139739
stockstradr
ParticipantThe Shanghai exchange moved up like a rocket from ~1000 points up to 6000 points in only a few years, and has since fallen about a thousand points in a few months.
The Asia markets will crash and burn. It will be very ugly.
-
January 21, 2008 at 8:31 AM #139760
stockstradr
ParticipantThe Shanghai exchange moved up like a rocket from ~1000 points up to 6000 points in only a few years, and has since fallen about a thousand points in a few months.
The Asia markets will crash and burn. It will be very ugly.
-
January 21, 2008 at 8:31 AM #139786
stockstradr
ParticipantThe Shanghai exchange moved up like a rocket from ~1000 points up to 6000 points in only a few years, and has since fallen about a thousand points in a few months.
The Asia markets will crash and burn. It will be very ugly.
-
January 21, 2008 at 8:31 AM #139831
stockstradr
ParticipantThe Shanghai exchange moved up like a rocket from ~1000 points up to 6000 points in only a few years, and has since fallen about a thousand points in a few months.
The Asia markets will crash and burn. It will be very ugly.
-
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January 21, 2008 at 8:24 AM #139719
nostradamus
ParticipantChina’s market is directly tied to the markets of her two largest exportees: the U.S. and Japan. At the same time, China has a huge domestic consumer market which is rapidly growing in terms of wealth and income. The decline of western civilization will serve as a catalyst for a shifted focus to domestic markets, a switch to a gold-backed RMB, and a decoupling from the dollar and yen. I wouldn’t want to hold Chinese securities at the moment but I’m keeping my eyes on them for future long-term growth.
-
January 21, 2008 at 8:24 AM #139740
nostradamus
ParticipantChina’s market is directly tied to the markets of her two largest exportees: the U.S. and Japan. At the same time, China has a huge domestic consumer market which is rapidly growing in terms of wealth and income. The decline of western civilization will serve as a catalyst for a shifted focus to domestic markets, a switch to a gold-backed RMB, and a decoupling from the dollar and yen. I wouldn’t want to hold Chinese securities at the moment but I’m keeping my eyes on them for future long-term growth.
-
January 21, 2008 at 8:24 AM #139766
nostradamus
ParticipantChina’s market is directly tied to the markets of her two largest exportees: the U.S. and Japan. At the same time, China has a huge domestic consumer market which is rapidly growing in terms of wealth and income. The decline of western civilization will serve as a catalyst for a shifted focus to domestic markets, a switch to a gold-backed RMB, and a decoupling from the dollar and yen. I wouldn’t want to hold Chinese securities at the moment but I’m keeping my eyes on them for future long-term growth.
-
January 21, 2008 at 8:24 AM #139812
nostradamus
ParticipantChina’s market is directly tied to the markets of her two largest exportees: the U.S. and Japan. At the same time, China has a huge domestic consumer market which is rapidly growing in terms of wealth and income. The decline of western civilization will serve as a catalyst for a shifted focus to domestic markets, a switch to a gold-backed RMB, and a decoupling from the dollar and yen. I wouldn’t want to hold Chinese securities at the moment but I’m keeping my eyes on them for future long-term growth.
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