Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Layoff’s slowing and the green shoot theory
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Coronita.
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May 8, 2009 at 3:52 PM #395560May 8, 2009 at 4:35 PM #395984
SD Realtor
Participant“If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.”
Lets see…
The bond holders for Chrysler who held secured debt received something like 28% of the value of the company.
The union which had NO secured debt received WAY more then that.
The current administration essentially brokered the entire deal.
I think I would err on the side of being cynical.
Why be a bond holder at all if your government cares more about unions who procurred votes for them, then anything else?
May 8, 2009 at 4:35 PM #395317Participant“If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.”
Lets see…
The bond holders for Chrysler who held secured debt received something like 28% of the value of the company.
The union which had NO secured debt received WAY more then that.
The current administration essentially brokered the entire deal.
I think I would err on the side of being cynical.
Why be a bond holder at all if your government cares more about unions who procurred votes for them, then anything else?
May 8, 2009 at 4:35 PM #395570Participant“If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.”
Lets see…
The bond holders for Chrysler who held secured debt received something like 28% of the value of the company.
The union which had NO secured debt received WAY more then that.
The current administration essentially brokered the entire deal.
I think I would err on the side of being cynical.
Why be a bond holder at all if your government cares more about unions who procurred votes for them, then anything else?
May 8, 2009 at 4:35 PM #395789Participant“If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.”
Lets see…
The bond holders for Chrysler who held secured debt received something like 28% of the value of the company.
The union which had NO secured debt received WAY more then that.
The current administration essentially brokered the entire deal.
I think I would err on the side of being cynical.
Why be a bond holder at all if your government cares more about unions who procurred votes for them, then anything else?
May 8, 2009 at 4:35 PM #395842Participant“If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.”
Lets see…
The bond holders for Chrysler who held secured debt received something like 28% of the value of the company.
The union which had NO secured debt received WAY more then that.
The current administration essentially brokered the entire deal.
I think I would err on the side of being cynical.
Why be a bond holder at all if your government cares more about unions who procurred votes for them, then anything else?
May 8, 2009 at 7:18 PM #396085UCGal
ParticipantSomething to note about the job loss number reported today… via Barry Ritholtz
Private-sector employment fell by 611,000; the differential between NFP and private sector employment is primarily new hires for the 2010 Census;
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/looking-more-closely-at-the-good-bfp-data/
Sounds like a good way to improve the official estimate of NFP numbers for April… hire a bunch of public sector, low wage, census workers.
May 8, 2009 at 7:18 PM #395888ParticipantSomething to note about the job loss number reported today… via Barry Ritholtz
Private-sector employment fell by 611,000; the differential between NFP and private sector employment is primarily new hires for the 2010 Census;
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/looking-more-closely-at-the-good-bfp-data/
Sounds like a good way to improve the official estimate of NFP numbers for April… hire a bunch of public sector, low wage, census workers.
May 8, 2009 at 7:18 PM #395669ParticipantSomething to note about the job loss number reported today… via Barry Ritholtz
Private-sector employment fell by 611,000; the differential between NFP and private sector employment is primarily new hires for the 2010 Census;
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/looking-more-closely-at-the-good-bfp-data/
Sounds like a good way to improve the official estimate of NFP numbers for April… hire a bunch of public sector, low wage, census workers.
May 8, 2009 at 7:18 PM #395416ParticipantSomething to note about the job loss number reported today… via Barry Ritholtz
Private-sector employment fell by 611,000; the differential between NFP and private sector employment is primarily new hires for the 2010 Census;
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/looking-more-closely-at-the-good-bfp-data/
Sounds like a good way to improve the official estimate of NFP numbers for April… hire a bunch of public sector, low wage, census workers.
May 8, 2009 at 7:18 PM #395943ParticipantSomething to note about the job loss number reported today… via Barry Ritholtz
Private-sector employment fell by 611,000; the differential between NFP and private sector employment is primarily new hires for the 2010 Census;
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/looking-more-closely-at-the-good-bfp-data/
Sounds like a good way to improve the official estimate of NFP numbers for April… hire a bunch of public sector, low wage, census workers.
May 9, 2009 at 7:26 PM #395772jpinpb
Participant[quote=Arraya]The “perception control” that is appearing(intentionally or not) with unemployment falls into a bigger pattern with all other economic data. Usually, if you do a little digging, most cited data for an improving economy are based on misconstrued statistics or in some cases outright lies. You can find those when Bernake or Giethner speaks.
If I wanted to be less cynical, I would say it’s a natural proclivity towards optimism coupled with a few statistical aberrations to the point of being misleading.
If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.
If this latest episode follows the same narrative as the housing bubble, any measure of the true state of affairs won’t be acknowledged by the MSM until it just can’t hidden anymore. I’d say late summer/fall we should get another dose of economic reality. Unless, that is, you are one of the recently unemployed.
Also, with the latest report:
In addition the “birth-death adjustment” was +226,000, close to double the previous month. That’s the computer model that “estimates” the number of jobs that are created in the economy but unreported.
Makes me think they tweaked the bda so the market would react to the news. Otherwise it would have looked like last months with no appearance of improvement.
[/quote]
I think it’s more that people can’t handle the truth. Lie to meMay 9, 2009 at 7:26 PM #396021Participant[quote=Arraya]The “perception control” that is appearing(intentionally or not) with unemployment falls into a bigger pattern with all other economic data. Usually, if you do a little digging, most cited data for an improving economy are based on misconstrued statistics or in some cases outright lies. You can find those when Bernake or Giethner speaks.
If I wanted to be less cynical, I would say it’s a natural proclivity towards optimism coupled with a few statistical aberrations to the point of being misleading.
If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.
If this latest episode follows the same narrative as the housing bubble, any measure of the true state of affairs won’t be acknowledged by the MSM until it just can’t hidden anymore. I’d say late summer/fall we should get another dose of economic reality. Unless, that is, you are one of the recently unemployed.
Also, with the latest report:
In addition the “birth-death adjustment” was +226,000, close to double the previous month. That’s the computer model that “estimates” the number of jobs that are created in the economy but unreported.
Makes me think they tweaked the bda so the market would react to the news. Otherwise it would have looked like last months with no appearance of improvement.
[/quote]
I think it’s more that people can’t handle the truth. Lie to meMay 9, 2009 at 7:26 PM #396244Participant[quote=Arraya]The “perception control” that is appearing(intentionally or not) with unemployment falls into a bigger pattern with all other economic data. Usually, if you do a little digging, most cited data for an improving economy are based on misconstrued statistics or in some cases outright lies. You can find those when Bernake or Giethner speaks.
If I wanted to be less cynical, I would say it’s a natural proclivity towards optimism coupled with a few statistical aberrations to the point of being misleading.
If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.
If this latest episode follows the same narrative as the housing bubble, any measure of the true state of affairs won’t be acknowledged by the MSM until it just can’t hidden anymore. I’d say late summer/fall we should get another dose of economic reality. Unless, that is, you are one of the recently unemployed.
Also, with the latest report:
In addition the “birth-death adjustment” was +226,000, close to double the previous month. That’s the computer model that “estimates” the number of jobs that are created in the economy but unreported.
Makes me think they tweaked the bda so the market would react to the news. Otherwise it would have looked like last months with no appearance of improvement.
[/quote]
I think it’s more that people can’t handle the truth. Lie to meMay 9, 2009 at 7:26 PM #396298Participant[quote=Arraya]The “perception control” that is appearing(intentionally or not) with unemployment falls into a bigger pattern with all other economic data. Usually, if you do a little digging, most cited data for an improving economy are based on misconstrued statistics or in some cases outright lies. You can find those when Bernake or Giethner speaks.
If I wanted to be less cynical, I would say it’s a natural proclivity towards optimism coupled with a few statistical aberrations to the point of being misleading.
If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.
If this latest episode follows the same narrative as the housing bubble, any measure of the true state of affairs won’t be acknowledged by the MSM until it just can’t hidden anymore. I’d say late summer/fall we should get another dose of economic reality. Unless, that is, you are one of the recently unemployed.
Also, with the latest report:
In addition the “birth-death adjustment” was +226,000, close to double the previous month. That’s the computer model that “estimates” the number of jobs that are created in the economy but unreported.
Makes me think they tweaked the bda so the market would react to the news. Otherwise it would have looked like last months with no appearance of improvement.
[/quote]
I think it’s more that people can’t handle the truth. Lie to me -
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