Latest peak oil news

[Arraya]

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51604
The new report, produced by the UK’s Industry Taskforce for Peak Oil and Energy Security, is of interest because it updates the estimates of when the oil “crunch” (when demand exceeds production) will occur to account for the global economic slowdown. In addition, the amount of unbiased attention that has been given to the report including that of the British government shows that a wider understanding of the problem is starting to take hold.

For most, the key concern is not whether there will be much higher gasoline prices ahead, but when. To answer this question, we have to take into account trends in the three major variables that determine oil prices and also be aware that there are numerous geopolitical factors affecting the situation, such as the Iranian nuclear standoff; stability of the Iraqi government after the US pullout; the drought in Venezuela; and the Nigerian insurgency.

The first two issues encompass the balance of new oil supplies and declining production from existing oil fields. Here the report suggests a fairly specific time frame when significant additions of new production to the world’s oil supply is likely to end. The report says time is around the end of the current year. From 2011 on, the relentless drop in production of just over 4 million b/d from the fields that are currently producing about 85 million barrels a day will be just barely balanced with production from new projects through 2014. After that world production will go into decline.

In other words, the world’s ability to keep increasing its oil production will come to an end this year after 150 years of more or less steady growth. While new production from projects such as those in the deep waters off Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico will continue, these projects are five to ten years away from significantly adding to global production and likely will be overbalanced by the 4 million b/d annual drop in production from existing fields. New production will, of course, slow the pace of global oil depletion, but will not be enough to allow for global economic growth.

[paramount]

If cars like the the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf catch on (plugin hybrids) we could beat peak oil.

The peak oil issue has kind of disappeared off the radar recently, in fact I read an article on signonsandiego that basically stated there is no threat of peak oil in our future at all.

I don’t know what to think, if this article is correct it’s going to make our already difficult situation that much more difficult.

[paramount]

If cars like the the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf catch on (plugin hybrids) we could beat peak oil.

The peak oil issue has kind of disappeared off the radar recently, in fact I read an article on signonsandiego that basically stated there is no threat of peak oil in our future at all.

I don’t know what to think, if this article is correct it’s going to make our already difficult situation that much more difficult.

[paramount]

If cars like the the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf catch on (plugin hybrids) we could beat peak oil.

The peak oil issue has kind of disappeared off the radar recently, in fact I read an article on signonsandiego that basically stated there is no threat of peak oil in our future at all.

I don’t know what to think, if this article is correct it’s going to make our already difficult situation that much more difficult.

[paramount]

If cars like the the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf catch on (plugin hybrids) we could beat peak oil.

The peak oil issue has kind of disappeared off the radar recently, in fact I read an article on signonsandiego that basically stated there is no threat of peak oil in our future at all.

I don’t know what to think, if this article is correct it’s going to make our already difficult situation that much more difficult.

[paramount]

If cars like the the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf catch on (plugin hybrids) we could beat peak oil.

The peak oil issue has kind of disappeared off the radar recently, in fact I read an article on signonsandiego that basically stated there is no threat of peak oil in our future at all.

I don’t know what to think, if this article is correct it’s going to make our already difficult situation that much more difficult.

[pencilneck]

I’m no expert, but a couple quick thoughts:

There aren’t enough resources currently available to convert a larger percentage of combustion based cars to an electrical fleet in a short period of time. There are severe mineral bottlenecks for the components needed in batteries.

Peak oil is not an immediate concern as long as we stay in a severe recession. The problem will come when we expect recovery and find that there may not be the resources available to sustain it.

edit: the article goes on to say something very similr, just after the posted portion:

“High oil prices may or may not come in the next year or so because of recent drops in demand for oil in 2008 and early 2009. Currently world oil production is running about 85 million b/d; however, there is said be another 6 or so million b/d of unused productive capacity that could start producing oil in a few months. Although some are skeptical about the size and quality of this “reserve capacity” about 4 million barrels a day (b/d) of which is in Saudi Arabia, in theory it could keep the lid on prices for a while. In fact world oil production could increase to 91-92 million b/d if demand increases soon.”

[pencilneck]

I’m no expert, but a couple quick thoughts:

There aren’t enough resources currently available to convert a larger percentage of combustion based cars to an electrical fleet in a short period of time. There are severe mineral bottlenecks for the components needed in batteries.

Peak oil is not an immediate concern as long as we stay in a severe recession. The problem will come when we expect recovery and find that there may not be the resources available to sustain it.

edit: the article goes on to say something very similr, just after the posted portion:

“High oil prices may or may not come in the next year or so because of recent drops in demand for oil in 2008 and early 2009. Currently world oil production is running about 85 million b/d; however, there is said be another 6 or so million b/d of unused productive capacity that could start producing oil in a few months. Although some are skeptical about the size and quality of this “reserve capacity” about 4 million barrels a day (b/d) of which is in Saudi Arabia, in theory it could keep the lid on prices for a while. In fact world oil production could increase to 91-92 million b/d if demand increases soon.”

[pencilneck]

I’m no expert, but a couple quick thoughts:

There aren’t enough resources currently available to convert a larger percentage of combustion based cars to an electrical fleet in a short period of time. There are severe mineral bottlenecks for the components needed in batteries.

Peak oil is not an immediate concern as long as we stay in a severe recession. The problem will come when we expect recovery and find that there may not be the resources available to sustain it.

edit: the article goes on to say something very similr, just after the posted portion:

“High oil prices may or may not come in the next year or so because of recent drops in demand for oil in 2008 and early 2009. Currently world oil production is running about 85 million b/d; however, there is said be another 6 or so million b/d of unused productive capacity that could start producing oil in a few months. Although some are skeptical about the size and quality of this “reserve capacity” about 4 million barrels a day (b/d) of which is in Saudi Arabia, in theory it could keep the lid on prices for a while. In fact world oil production could increase to 91-92 million b/d if demand increases soon.”

[pencilneck]

I’m no expert, but a couple quick thoughts:

There aren’t enough resources currently available to convert a larger percentage of combustion based cars to an electrical fleet in a short period of time. There are severe mineral bottlenecks for the components needed in batteries.

Peak oil is not an immediate concern as long as we stay in a severe recession. The problem will come when we expect recovery and find that there may not be the resources available to sustain it.

edit: the article goes on to say something very similr, just after the posted portion:

“High oil prices may or may not come in the next year or so because of recent drops in demand for oil in 2008 and early 2009. Currently world oil production is running about 85 million b/d; however, there is said be another 6 or so million b/d of unused productive capacity that could start producing oil in a few months. Although some are skeptical about the size and quality of this “reserve capacity” about 4 million barrels a day (b/d) of which is in Saudi Arabia, in theory it could keep the lid on prices for a while. In fact world oil production could increase to 91-92 million b/d if demand increases soon.”

[pencilneck]

I’m no expert, but a couple quick thoughts:

There aren’t enough resources currently available to convert a larger percentage of combustion based cars to an electrical fleet in a short period of time. There are severe mineral bottlenecks for the components needed in batteries.

Peak oil is not an immediate concern as long as we stay in a severe recession. The problem will come when we expect recovery and find that there may not be the resources available to sustain it.

edit: the article goes on to say something very similr, just after the posted portion:

“High oil prices may or may not come in the next year or so because of recent drops in demand for oil in 2008 and early 2009. Currently world oil production is running about 85 million b/d; however, there is said be another 6 or so million b/d of unused productive capacity that could start producing oil in a few months. Although some are skeptical about the size and quality of this “reserve capacity” about 4 million barrels a day (b/d) of which is in Saudi Arabia, in theory it could keep the lid on prices for a while. In fact world oil production could increase to 91-92 million b/d if demand increases soon.”

[Eugene]

[quote]There are severe mineral bottlenecks for the components needed in batteries.[/quote]

That’s not true.

The only non-ubiquitous element in modern lithium-ion batteries is lithium. It takes 10 kg of lithium to build one typical electric car. Just the known reserves of three South American countries, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, add up to 10 to 15 million tons. Extraction can be scaled up very quickly if only there was sufficient demand.

[Eugene]

[quote]There are severe mineral bottlenecks for the components needed in batteries.[/quote]

That’s not true.

The only non-ubiquitous element in modern lithium-ion batteries is lithium. It takes 10 kg of lithium to build one typical electric car. Just the known reserves of three South American countries, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, add up to 10 to 15 million tons. Extraction can be scaled up very quickly if only there was sufficient demand.

[Eugene]

[quote]There are severe mineral bottlenecks for the components needed in batteries.[/quote]

That’s not true.

The only non-ubiquitous element in modern lithium-ion batteries is lithium. It takes 10 kg of lithium to build one typical electric car. Just the known reserves of three South American countries, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, add up to 10 to 15 million tons. Extraction can be scaled up very quickly if only there was sufficient demand.

[Eugene]

[quote]There are severe mineral bottlenecks for the components needed in batteries.[/quote]

That’s not true.

The only non-ubiquitous element in modern lithium-ion batteries is lithium. It takes 10 kg of lithium to build one typical electric car. Just the known reserves of three South American countries, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, add up to 10 to 15 million tons. Extraction can be scaled up very quickly if only there was sufficient demand.

[Author]

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