Once again, time to take a look at the sales volumes for SFRs and condos as reported through Sandicor MLS. As usual, I’d remind everyone that the final numbers for July won’t post for a couple weeks yet because some agents are slackers and they don’t update their listings in a timely manner. Based on months past, the number for this month may increase by 8% or 9% before it’s all over.
This month, I thought I’d do someting a little different and show the cumulative totals for the year:
As can be seen above there is some fluctuation on a month-month basis, but the overall trends are pretty clear – 2007 is shaping up to be a fair bit worse than 2006. The single digit decreases in Jan, Feb and Apr have kept the average to only 14%, but I can envision the overall average for the year could shake out somewhere between 15% – 18% or so less than 2006. The final tally for 2006 totalled 29,086 SFR+condos, so a 15% decrease from that would result in a 24,723 year for 2007, and an 18% decrease would equal 23,850.
FYI, 1997 had 27,200 sales and 1996 had 22,800 sales through the MLS, so an 18% decline for 2007 is encroaching on the worst year in the last 18 years. It would be the worst year for sales if you consider we’ve added almost 10% more units to our totals over the last 10 years.
Another note, even when considering the current events in the financing world, I would think a 20% decline in overall volume is a long shot at this point. Average monthly volumes for the last 5 months of the year would have to undercut the 2006 numbers by ~28% in order for that to happen – that’s unlikely.
Of course, the way things are going I’m thinking 2007 might end up looking pretty good compared to 2008.
BTW, the 2110 number for July is where I’m projecting it will shake out after the late reporters check in. The 1936 is where we are this morning; 2110 represents a 9% increase for the late reporters.
BTW, the 2110 number for July is where I’m projecting it will shake out after the late reporters check in. The 1936 is where we are this morning; 2110 represents a 9% increase for the late reporters.
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