John Mauldin writes: Where is the Bottom in Housing?

[susa]

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo032808.pdf

“..temptation to simply walk away is going to be large.

It will take many years for a homeowner to have any equity. One bright spot? Homes in the bubble areas are going to once again become affordable to middle-class citizens. Teachers, policemen, and firemen who could not afford to live in the cities they worked for will now have an opportunity, as will the young who have yet to buy their first home…”

[Ex-SD]

Loved the last few paragraphs:

“So, let’s wrap things up. Those who think we are close to a bottom in the housing bubble are engaged in wishful thinking. You read above what those who really do their homework are saying. If we had more space, I could give you even more statistics and forecasts from Gary Shilling, Greg Weldon, Dr. Nouriel Roubini and others who do their homework, rather than trying to see a trend in one month’s statistics. Many of the home sales from February are foreclosures. Those are going to rise. The key pieces of data to look at will be the months of supply of homes for sale and foreclosures. Until the supply of homes gets back to 6 months, we will probably not have seen the bottom. Until we have worked through the millions of foreclosures that are in front of us, it is hard to think in terms of a bottom.
We are in a recession, and that means rising unemployment and falling consumer spending. It means tighter profit margins. Etc. It is going to take a long time for the economy to recover. Welcome to Muddle Through.
One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy. Just my take.”

This guy understands, doesn’t he? This should be required reading for the potential home buyers who come on this site stating that even though they know the dangers, they just HAVE to buy NOW. They really don’t get it that they’re going to pay 100’s of thousands more in principal & interest by buying now plus higher real estate taxes based on their sales price.

[EconProf]

BobS
This article is a great summary of our housing situation and where it is going. Well-documented, thoughtful and sober.

[EconProf]

BobS
This article is a great summary of our housing situation and where it is going. Well-documented, thoughtful and sober.

[EconProf]

BobS
This article is a great summary of our housing situation and where it is going. Well-documented, thoughtful and sober.

[EconProf]

BobS
This article is a great summary of our housing situation and where it is going. Well-documented, thoughtful and sober.

[EconProf]

BobS
This article is a great summary of our housing situation and where it is going. Well-documented, thoughtful and sober.

[jpinpb]

“One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy.”

That should be required reading by everyone in government before they contemplate any more “rescues”!

[sd-maybe]

First-time borrowers should be required to watch a video explaining contract law as part of the process. Children are not allowed to enter into contracts presumeably because their young, immature minds are unable to comprehend the seriousness of fullfilling an obligation and they can’t be held legally accountable, unlike adults. But watch some of these FB interviews and how they are completely clueless.

[sd-maybe]

First-time borrowers should be required to watch a video explaining contract law as part of the process. Children are not allowed to enter into contracts presumeably because their young, immature minds are unable to comprehend the seriousness of fullfilling an obligation and they can’t be held legally accountable, unlike adults. But watch some of these FB interviews and how they are completely clueless.

[sd-maybe]

First-time borrowers should be required to watch a video explaining contract law as part of the process. Children are not allowed to enter into contracts presumeably because their young, immature minds are unable to comprehend the seriousness of fullfilling an obligation and they can’t be held legally accountable, unlike adults. But watch some of these FB interviews and how they are completely clueless.

[sd-maybe]

First-time borrowers should be required to watch a video explaining contract law as part of the process. Children are not allowed to enter into contracts presumeably because their young, immature minds are unable to comprehend the seriousness of fullfilling an obligation and they can’t be held legally accountable, unlike adults. But watch some of these FB interviews and how they are completely clueless.

[sd-maybe]

First-time borrowers should be required to watch a video explaining contract law as part of the process. Children are not allowed to enter into contracts presumeably because their young, immature minds are unable to comprehend the seriousness of fullfilling an obligation and they can’t be held legally accountable, unlike adults. But watch some of these FB interviews and how they are completely clueless.

[jpinpb]

“One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy.”

That should be required reading by everyone in government before they contemplate any more “rescues”!

[jpinpb]

“One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy.”

That should be required reading by everyone in government before they contemplate any more “rescues”!

[jpinpb]

“One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy.”

That should be required reading by everyone in government before they contemplate any more “rescues”!

[jpinpb]

“One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy.”

That should be required reading by everyone in government before they contemplate any more “rescues”!

[Ex-SD]

Loved the last few paragraphs:

“So, let’s wrap things up. Those who think we are close to a bottom in the housing bubble are engaged in wishful thinking. You read above what those who really do their homework are saying. If we had more space, I could give you even more statistics and forecasts from Gary Shilling, Greg Weldon, Dr. Nouriel Roubini and others who do their homework, rather than trying to see a trend in one month’s statistics. Many of the home sales from February are foreclosures. Those are going to rise. The key pieces of data to look at will be the months of supply of homes for sale and foreclosures. Until the supply of homes gets back to 6 months, we will probably not have seen the bottom. Until we have worked through the millions of foreclosures that are in front of us, it is hard to think in terms of a bottom.
We are in a recession, and that means rising unemployment and falling consumer spending. It means tighter profit margins. Etc. It is going to take a long time for the economy to recover. Welcome to Muddle Through.
One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy. Just my take.”

This guy understands, doesn’t he? This should be required reading for the potential home buyers who come on this site stating that even though they know the dangers, they just HAVE to buy NOW. They really don’t get it that they’re going to pay 100’s of thousands more in principal & interest by buying now plus higher real estate taxes based on their sales price.

[Ex-SD]

Loved the last few paragraphs:

“So, let’s wrap things up. Those who think we are close to a bottom in the housing bubble are engaged in wishful thinking. You read above what those who really do their homework are saying. If we had more space, I could give you even more statistics and forecasts from Gary Shilling, Greg Weldon, Dr. Nouriel Roubini and others who do their homework, rather than trying to see a trend in one month’s statistics. Many of the home sales from February are foreclosures. Those are going to rise. The key pieces of data to look at will be the months of supply of homes for sale and foreclosures. Until the supply of homes gets back to 6 months, we will probably not have seen the bottom. Until we have worked through the millions of foreclosures that are in front of us, it is hard to think in terms of a bottom.
We are in a recession, and that means rising unemployment and falling consumer spending. It means tighter profit margins. Etc. It is going to take a long time for the economy to recover. Welcome to Muddle Through.
One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy. Just my take.”

This guy understands, doesn’t he? This should be required reading for the potential home buyers who come on this site stating that even though they know the dangers, they just HAVE to buy NOW. They really don’t get it that they’re going to pay 100’s of thousands more in principal & interest by buying now plus higher real estate taxes based on their sales price.

[Ex-SD]

Loved the last few paragraphs:

“So, let’s wrap things up. Those who think we are close to a bottom in the housing bubble are engaged in wishful thinking. You read above what those who really do their homework are saying. If we had more space, I could give you even more statistics and forecasts from Gary Shilling, Greg Weldon, Dr. Nouriel Roubini and others who do their homework, rather than trying to see a trend in one month’s statistics. Many of the home sales from February are foreclosures. Those are going to rise. The key pieces of data to look at will be the months of supply of homes for sale and foreclosures. Until the supply of homes gets back to 6 months, we will probably not have seen the bottom. Until we have worked through the millions of foreclosures that are in front of us, it is hard to think in terms of a bottom.
We are in a recession, and that means rising unemployment and falling consumer spending. It means tighter profit margins. Etc. It is going to take a long time for the economy to recover. Welcome to Muddle Through.
One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy. Just my take.”

This guy understands, doesn’t he? This should be required reading for the potential home buyers who come on this site stating that even though they know the dangers, they just HAVE to buy NOW. They really don’t get it that they’re going to pay 100’s of thousands more in principal & interest by buying now plus higher real estate taxes based on their sales price.

[Ex-SD]

Loved the last few paragraphs:

“So, let’s wrap things up. Those who think we are close to a bottom in the housing bubble are engaged in wishful thinking. You read above what those who really do their homework are saying. If we had more space, I could give you even more statistics and forecasts from Gary Shilling, Greg Weldon, Dr. Nouriel Roubini and others who do their homework, rather than trying to see a trend in one month’s statistics. Many of the home sales from February are foreclosures. Those are going to rise. The key pieces of data to look at will be the months of supply of homes for sale and foreclosures. Until the supply of homes gets back to 6 months, we will probably not have seen the bottom. Until we have worked through the millions of foreclosures that are in front of us, it is hard to think in terms of a bottom.
We are in a recession, and that means rising unemployment and falling consumer spending. It means tighter profit margins. Etc. It is going to take a long time for the economy to recover. Welcome to Muddle Through.
One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it’s likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was “surely” going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy. Just my take.”

This guy understands, doesn’t he? This should be required reading for the potential home buyers who come on this site stating that even though they know the dangers, they just HAVE to buy NOW. They really don’t get it that they’re going to pay 100’s of thousands more in principal & interest by buying now plus higher real estate taxes based on their sales price.

[DWCAP]

Most of the information here is the same stuff we have seen over and over again. No bottom and no end in sight till the crap is gone, and the crap is still growing, but there isnt much room under the rug anymore. I liked reading it, but except for the updated reset chart, I didnt get much. I did like the politcal commentary though I doubt well be able to screen the investors from the FB’s. Too many bleeding hearts with communication degrees and no understanding of economics.

I can however attest to the final statement he made. Rafting the Zambezi below the falls is increadable. I nearly drowned there, but id go back in a heartbeat. It was kinda sad to see the poverty though. The rafting company we went with contracted some locals to help carry out our raft and heavy gear as it is a very steep climb to get out after the full day trip. They worked for the leftovers of our breakfast and whatever bottled water/soda we didnt drink. Better than starving, but not a happy sight. Someone needs to throw Mr. Magabe off victoria falls.

[DWCAP]

Most of the information here is the same stuff we have seen over and over again. No bottom and no end in sight till the crap is gone, and the crap is still growing, but there isnt much room under the rug anymore. I liked reading it, but except for the updated reset chart, I didnt get much. I did like the politcal commentary though I doubt well be able to screen the investors from the FB’s. Too many bleeding hearts with communication degrees and no understanding of economics.

I can however attest to the final statement he made. Rafting the Zambezi below the falls is increadable. I nearly drowned there, but id go back in a heartbeat. It was kinda sad to see the poverty though. The rafting company we went with contracted some locals to help carry out our raft and heavy gear as it is a very steep climb to get out after the full day trip. They worked for the leftovers of our breakfast and whatever bottled water/soda we didnt drink. Better than starving, but not a happy sight. Someone needs to throw Mr. Magabe off victoria falls.

[DWCAP]

Most of the information here is the same stuff we have seen over and over again. No bottom and no end in sight till the crap is gone, and the crap is still growing, but there isnt much room under the rug anymore. I liked reading it, but except for the updated reset chart, I didnt get much. I did like the politcal commentary though I doubt well be able to screen the investors from the FB’s. Too many bleeding hearts with communication degrees and no understanding of economics.

I can however attest to the final statement he made. Rafting the Zambezi below the falls is increadable. I nearly drowned there, but id go back in a heartbeat. It was kinda sad to see the poverty though. The rafting company we went with contracted some locals to help carry out our raft and heavy gear as it is a very steep climb to get out after the full day trip. They worked for the leftovers of our breakfast and whatever bottled water/soda we didnt drink. Better than starving, but not a happy sight. Someone needs to throw Mr. Magabe off victoria falls.

[DWCAP]

Most of the information here is the same stuff we have seen over and over again. No bottom and no end in sight till the crap is gone, and the crap is still growing, but there isnt much room under the rug anymore. I liked reading it, but except for the updated reset chart, I didnt get much. I did like the politcal commentary though I doubt well be able to screen the investors from the FB’s. Too many bleeding hearts with communication degrees and no understanding of economics.

I can however attest to the final statement he made. Rafting the Zambezi below the falls is increadable. I nearly drowned there, but id go back in a heartbeat. It was kinda sad to see the poverty though. The rafting company we went with contracted some locals to help carry out our raft and heavy gear as it is a very steep climb to get out after the full day trip. They worked for the leftovers of our breakfast and whatever bottled water/soda we didnt drink. Better than starving, but not a happy sight. Someone needs to throw Mr. Magabe off victoria falls.

[DWCAP]

Most of the information here is the same stuff we have seen over and over again. No bottom and no end in sight till the crap is gone, and the crap is still growing, but there isnt much room under the rug anymore. I liked reading it, but except for the updated reset chart, I didnt get much. I did like the politcal commentary though I doubt well be able to screen the investors from the FB’s. Too many bleeding hearts with communication degrees and no understanding of economics.

I can however attest to the final statement he made. Rafting the Zambezi below the falls is increadable. I nearly drowned there, but id go back in a heartbeat. It was kinda sad to see the poverty though. The rafting company we went with contracted some locals to help carry out our raft and heavy gear as it is a very steep climb to get out after the full day trip. They worked for the leftovers of our breakfast and whatever bottled water/soda we didnt drink. Better than starving, but not a happy sight. Someone needs to throw Mr. Magabe off victoria falls.

[Author]

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