January sales figure for 92127: 107 homes already sold/pending???

[waitingtobuy]

Hello SD R & others

How much of the new home inventories are still left in 4s area? Will the re-sale homes in that area continue to feel downward/negative price pressure once the new home inventories clear up?

A realtor tells me that most of the foreclosed/REO properties have been sold. I did a rough scan and it seems a lot of them have indeed sold recently. Someone in this thread suggested that “distress list” in 4S in not growing as fast now. Hence if the supply of REOs/defaults are not growing and if the current homeowners are not in pressure to sell, why would there be a downward trend?

Thanks

[SD Realtor]

Personal opinion here waiting to buy. I think the investors left 4S a long long time ago. Perhaps a few bonehead realtors were left over buying places but that number is few and far between. I doubt you have seen an investor purchase in 4S for a long long time.

Resellers are typically not adept at competing with new inventory on pricing. It doesn’t matter if there is 1 new home for sale or a 100 homes for sale. Most resellers don’t get it until it is to late. The 4S exception is that demand has been strong and continues to be. This spring I expect it to continue.

While the existing REO’s have been sold in 4S to think that there will not be anymore is a fallacy. Distress lists in desireable locations will vary over time and do not monotonically increase or decrease unless a clear trend is established. So you have variations of bursts of distressed properties coming on the market followed by dryer spells. Expect to see increased sales this spring. Expect to see more distress (from homes that didn’t sell, not necessarily reos or shorts) come July/August. My main point is that I do believe 4S will be flat/decrease but it will be over an extended period of time. If your timetable is to seek a smoking deal in the next 12 months then I would be wary. If you have a 24-36 month horizon then the odds seem to be in your favor.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Personal opinion here waiting to buy. I think the investors left 4S a long long time ago. Perhaps a few bonehead realtors were left over buying places but that number is few and far between. I doubt you have seen an investor purchase in 4S for a long long time.

Resellers are typically not adept at competing with new inventory on pricing. It doesn’t matter if there is 1 new home for sale or a 100 homes for sale. Most resellers don’t get it until it is to late. The 4S exception is that demand has been strong and continues to be. This spring I expect it to continue.

While the existing REO’s have been sold in 4S to think that there will not be anymore is a fallacy. Distress lists in desireable locations will vary over time and do not monotonically increase or decrease unless a clear trend is established. So you have variations of bursts of distressed properties coming on the market followed by dryer spells. Expect to see increased sales this spring. Expect to see more distress (from homes that didn’t sell, not necessarily reos or shorts) come July/August. My main point is that I do believe 4S will be flat/decrease but it will be over an extended period of time. If your timetable is to seek a smoking deal in the next 12 months then I would be wary. If you have a 24-36 month horizon then the odds seem to be in your favor.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Personal opinion here waiting to buy. I think the investors left 4S a long long time ago. Perhaps a few bonehead realtors were left over buying places but that number is few and far between. I doubt you have seen an investor purchase in 4S for a long long time.

Resellers are typically not adept at competing with new inventory on pricing. It doesn’t matter if there is 1 new home for sale or a 100 homes for sale. Most resellers don’t get it until it is to late. The 4S exception is that demand has been strong and continues to be. This spring I expect it to continue.

While the existing REO’s have been sold in 4S to think that there will not be anymore is a fallacy. Distress lists in desireable locations will vary over time and do not monotonically increase or decrease unless a clear trend is established. So you have variations of bursts of distressed properties coming on the market followed by dryer spells. Expect to see increased sales this spring. Expect to see more distress (from homes that didn’t sell, not necessarily reos or shorts) come July/August. My main point is that I do believe 4S will be flat/decrease but it will be over an extended period of time. If your timetable is to seek a smoking deal in the next 12 months then I would be wary. If you have a 24-36 month horizon then the odds seem to be in your favor.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Personal opinion here waiting to buy. I think the investors left 4S a long long time ago. Perhaps a few bonehead realtors were left over buying places but that number is few and far between. I doubt you have seen an investor purchase in 4S for a long long time.

Resellers are typically not adept at competing with new inventory on pricing. It doesn’t matter if there is 1 new home for sale or a 100 homes for sale. Most resellers don’t get it until it is to late. The 4S exception is that demand has been strong and continues to be. This spring I expect it to continue.

While the existing REO’s have been sold in 4S to think that there will not be anymore is a fallacy. Distress lists in desireable locations will vary over time and do not monotonically increase or decrease unless a clear trend is established. So you have variations of bursts of distressed properties coming on the market followed by dryer spells. Expect to see increased sales this spring. Expect to see more distress (from homes that didn’t sell, not necessarily reos or shorts) come July/August. My main point is that I do believe 4S will be flat/decrease but it will be over an extended period of time. If your timetable is to seek a smoking deal in the next 12 months then I would be wary. If you have a 24-36 month horizon then the odds seem to be in your favor.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Personal opinion here waiting to buy. I think the investors left 4S a long long time ago. Perhaps a few bonehead realtors were left over buying places but that number is few and far between. I doubt you have seen an investor purchase in 4S for a long long time.

Resellers are typically not adept at competing with new inventory on pricing. It doesn’t matter if there is 1 new home for sale or a 100 homes for sale. Most resellers don’t get it until it is to late. The 4S exception is that demand has been strong and continues to be. This spring I expect it to continue.

While the existing REO’s have been sold in 4S to think that there will not be anymore is a fallacy. Distress lists in desireable locations will vary over time and do not monotonically increase or decrease unless a clear trend is established. So you have variations of bursts of distressed properties coming on the market followed by dryer spells. Expect to see increased sales this spring. Expect to see more distress (from homes that didn’t sell, not necessarily reos or shorts) come July/August. My main point is that I do believe 4S will be flat/decrease but it will be over an extended period of time. If your timetable is to seek a smoking deal in the next 12 months then I would be wary. If you have a 24-36 month horizon then the odds seem to be in your favor.

SD Realtor

[waitingtobuy]

Thanks SD R.
A friend of mine suggested that Realtors are now buying REOs and hoarding them for the better time. However, it doesn’t seem like that REOs are selling for that much of a blasting bargain.
Why would then someone accuire and hoard them for future time?

On a side note, you haven’t yet posted your observations on Scripps Ranch sales for a while. Any stats worth sharing?

thanks again

[waitingtobuy]

Thanks SD R.
A friend of mine suggested that Realtors are now buying REOs and hoarding them for the better time. However, it doesn’t seem like that REOs are selling for that much of a blasting bargain.
Why would then someone accuire and hoard them for future time?

On a side note, you haven’t yet posted your observations on Scripps Ranch sales for a while. Any stats worth sharing?

thanks again

[waitingtobuy]

Thanks SD R.
A friend of mine suggested that Realtors are now buying REOs and hoarding them for the better time. However, it doesn’t seem like that REOs are selling for that much of a blasting bargain.
Why would then someone accuire and hoard them for future time?

On a side note, you haven’t yet posted your observations on Scripps Ranch sales for a while. Any stats worth sharing?

thanks again

[waitingtobuy]

Thanks SD R.
A friend of mine suggested that Realtors are now buying REOs and hoarding them for the better time. However, it doesn’t seem like that REOs are selling for that much of a blasting bargain.
Why would then someone accuire and hoard them for future time?

On a side note, you haven’t yet posted your observations on Scripps Ranch sales for a while. Any stats worth sharing?

thanks again

[waitingtobuy]

Thanks SD R.
A friend of mine suggested that Realtors are now buying REOs and hoarding them for the better time. However, it doesn’t seem like that REOs are selling for that much of a blasting bargain.
Why would then someone accuire and hoard them for future time?

On a side note, you haven’t yet posted your observations on Scripps Ranch sales for a while. Any stats worth sharing?

thanks again

[DWCAP]

Waiting kinda hinted at a speculation that deep pocketed investors may be hording real estate. I remember someone posted that they were contacted about giving advice on a bulk purchase of 100 REO’s by an investment group. How are they trying to make money? A big discount from the bank and then flip them individually? Hold and rent and then sell? Artifically increase demand pricing by a reduction in supply? (DeBeers style)? I dont really think this is happening, but their is a lot of speculation about it floating around.
I guess what I am asking is what is the big investor’s play. If we knew that, we could examine the numbers and see if this hoarding waitingtobuy mentions is real or not. (IE, 100 former REO’s hit the market the same week in spring.)

[DWCAP]

Waiting kinda hinted at a speculation that deep pocketed investors may be hording real estate. I remember someone posted that they were contacted about giving advice on a bulk purchase of 100 REO’s by an investment group. How are they trying to make money? A big discount from the bank and then flip them individually? Hold and rent and then sell? Artifically increase demand pricing by a reduction in supply? (DeBeers style)? I dont really think this is happening, but their is a lot of speculation about it floating around.
I guess what I am asking is what is the big investor’s play. If we knew that, we could examine the numbers and see if this hoarding waitingtobuy mentions is real or not. (IE, 100 former REO’s hit the market the same week in spring.)

[DWCAP]

Waiting kinda hinted at a speculation that deep pocketed investors may be hording real estate. I remember someone posted that they were contacted about giving advice on a bulk purchase of 100 REO’s by an investment group. How are they trying to make money? A big discount from the bank and then flip them individually? Hold and rent and then sell? Artifically increase demand pricing by a reduction in supply? (DeBeers style)? I dont really think this is happening, but their is a lot of speculation about it floating around.
I guess what I am asking is what is the big investor’s play. If we knew that, we could examine the numbers and see if this hoarding waitingtobuy mentions is real or not. (IE, 100 former REO’s hit the market the same week in spring.)

[DWCAP]

Waiting kinda hinted at a speculation that deep pocketed investors may be hording real estate. I remember someone posted that they were contacted about giving advice on a bulk purchase of 100 REO’s by an investment group. How are they trying to make money? A big discount from the bank and then flip them individually? Hold and rent and then sell? Artifically increase demand pricing by a reduction in supply? (DeBeers style)? I dont really think this is happening, but their is a lot of speculation about it floating around.
I guess what I am asking is what is the big investor’s play. If we knew that, we could examine the numbers and see if this hoarding waitingtobuy mentions is real or not. (IE, 100 former REO’s hit the market the same week in spring.)

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