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July 26, 2007 at 5:31 PM #68033July 26, 2007 at 7:18 PM #68000LA_RenterParticipant
Scruffy,
This is a quote from Rich’s last article
“The early-1990s recession and housing bust have both been universally blamed on declining employment in the defense and aerospace manufacturing industries. In truth, that recession saw more job losses in real estate and construction than in manufacturing. The housing-related job losses that resulted from an unsustainable real estate boom had a big impact on the early-90s economy. They are doing so today as well.”
LA will not escape this. Here is a quote from David Streitfeld in the LA Times a while back;
“San Diego had the wildest run-up among major California cities, with prices tripling since the mid-1990s. … The market also began to fade first in San Diego. …
Whatever happens here, optimists and pessimists agree, will happen later in the rest of the state.”
IMO you are mistaking LA’s lag in the current cycle with market strength. It’s about year behind San Diego, that’s all. Orange County is taking the big hit right now in regards to volume.
July 26, 2007 at 7:18 PM #68067LA_RenterParticipantScruffy,
This is a quote from Rich’s last article
“The early-1990s recession and housing bust have both been universally blamed on declining employment in the defense and aerospace manufacturing industries. In truth, that recession saw more job losses in real estate and construction than in manufacturing. The housing-related job losses that resulted from an unsustainable real estate boom had a big impact on the early-90s economy. They are doing so today as well.”
LA will not escape this. Here is a quote from David Streitfeld in the LA Times a while back;
“San Diego had the wildest run-up among major California cities, with prices tripling since the mid-1990s. … The market also began to fade first in San Diego. …
Whatever happens here, optimists and pessimists agree, will happen later in the rest of the state.”
IMO you are mistaking LA’s lag in the current cycle with market strength. It’s about year behind San Diego, that’s all. Orange County is taking the big hit right now in regards to volume.
July 26, 2007 at 11:50 PM #68028youngsterParticipant“If the current economy was as sick as the 90s economy I would also jump on the 25 – 30% or more median price loss bandwagon.”
Well…I guess I’m an economy bear. Even with the current real estate/construction sector meltdown, my broken crystal ball says it has been a while since the last consumer-driven recession.
If housing is weak in the absence of recession, then it will be pummeled during recession – which is hard to avoid if the slowdown lasts several years.
It’s depressing if the 3 top sectors of additional jobs were in hospitality, government, & education. Maybe the government can balance us out of this one.
July 26, 2007 at 11:50 PM #68095youngsterParticipant“If the current economy was as sick as the 90s economy I would also jump on the 25 – 30% or more median price loss bandwagon.”
Well…I guess I’m an economy bear. Even with the current real estate/construction sector meltdown, my broken crystal ball says it has been a while since the last consumer-driven recession.
If housing is weak in the absence of recession, then it will be pummeled during recession – which is hard to avoid if the slowdown lasts several years.
It’s depressing if the 3 top sectors of additional jobs were in hospitality, government, & education. Maybe the government can balance us out of this one.
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