It must be November!

[sdcellar]

Either people are suddenly selling the crap out of houses or a bunch of people are just giving up for the holidays.

At least that’s how it looks for the areas I follow. I’d say over 10% of the properties I track have come off the market over the last few days. Some are newer listings (50 days) and some are old (7-months) and three of them were on the same street!

Not being a realtor, I’ve never followed the market this closely, but I’m guessing it’s quite normal. So inventory should drop, the REIC should cheer, and we’ll all see where it goes in 2007.

Anyway, if any of you have noticed the sudden drop or have an insider’s view into things, I’d love to hear about it.

[speedingpullet]

I’m definatlely seeing more ‘inactive’ properties on my ZipRealty list over the last few days – up from roughly 1 a day (from around 80 houses in ‘my homes’) to 3 a day over the last 3 days. This is in westide L.A too, so not just a local SD phenomenon.

My bet is that the clocks going back has acted like a sort of alarm – those who absolutley have to sell will hang in there as best they can over the winter. Those who still have a little leeway will withdraw until Spring of 2007.

[PD]

Maybe a lot of people are pulling their houses off the market because they don’t want to move during Thanksgiving and/or Christmas. I predict that we will see a sudden jump in late January and then a steady climb in inventory that will blow past the last high.

[Mexico Resident]

In the areas I watch in San Diego I see the same thing – listings going down. I notice some realtors like to tout the declining inventory as a sign of a market rebound. What they are conveniently not saying is that sales are also low to declining.

[speedingpullet]

I’m seeing much the same here in L.A, Mexico Resident: I just ‘ran the numbers’ on all of my Inactive listings from Zip.

Of the 67 listings that went inactive since early June (when I started keeping track of them) only 5 have sold according to Zillow – and all at a lower price than the Original List Price – lowest a modest 1.75% and the biggest a whopping 29.5%.
I don’t know the historical % of sales, so don’t know if this sales data is low or high, but my gut feeling is that, at an average of 7.5% sales to inactives, this is low.

OT BTW: just for fun – BRAVO is having a marathon of all last season’s ‘Million Dollar Listings’ on today….

[kaycee]

As a current seller, who has seen 4 properties withdraw in my neighborhood in the past 3 days, I have an educated guess. Realtor agreements usually called “Exclusive right to sell”, are generally signed for 90 days. If your house doesn’t sell you may renew it for 90 days. So if you put your house on the market on Feb 1 with a 90 day agreement, renewed it 90 days later on May 1 , renewed it AGAIN on August 1, it has just expired. Now you are depressed, tired of keeping your home clean, and see little hope of it selling over the winter. If you can, at all, you just give up and let your agreement expire. I know I would if I could.

[speedingpullet]

duplicate

[farbet]

I enjoyed getting info om the latest about the builders and prices in the various areas. Are the builders packing it in for the holidays too ? I noticed the Auction houses of Bressi Ranch are still there without a bite.

[powayseller]

Inventory and sales both decline in the fall and winter. Look at months supply. That is still rising. What matters is the relationship between inventory and sales, not the change in just one of them. Again, more BS from people who are trying to spin the story.

Mimicking a real estate bull: “Oh, inventory is dropping so houses are getting harder to find, mortgage rates are down so sales will pick up, employment is up and this economy is growing, go buy buy buy. Get yourself one of those superior properties”. More spin….

[sdcellar]

powayseller– Can’t tell here, are you calling BS on me?

[powayseller]

sdcellar, I don’t know what you mean. I’m just explaining the decline in inventory.

[waiting hawk]

All PS was saying was the same thing this San Diego realtor was stating:

“While the absolute number in inventory has declined the important inventory supply has increased slightly to 314 days. This is due to sales declining faster than the decline in inventory”

http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/California~San_Diego~bobcasagrand

My website tracking Inland Empire

[Mexico Resident]

“Of the 67 listings that went inactive since early June (when I started keeping track of them) only 5 have sold according to Zillow ” Good data! Thanks! 5 houses sold in 5 months? That’s totally pathetic! At that rate it will take 60 months to sell the rest of the “inactives” when they come back on the market.

[JES]

Anyone have any data for October sales, pendings, solds, prices yet? I ask around this time every month:) While I know we usually see it in a week or two, I am sure some of the folks here with their ear to the pavement already have some of it…

[sdcellar]

No worries PS. I thought you were suggesting that somebody was spinning something in this thread as opposed to what somebody like NAR or CAR might spin.

What’s funny is that right now, the NAR seems to be pitching that all this inventory makes it a great buyer’s market and, of course, a great time to buy a house (and even with a likely increase in canceled listings, there’s still a heck of a lot of inventory out there). What a joke.

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