Investment property during Covid19

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor]Anyone selling broad based predictions in RE is throwing lots of sh@t at the wall hoping somehting sticks. RE is about making good decisions and beating the market. [/quote]

Doesn’t the first sentence make the second sentence a crap shoot?[/quote]

Life can be a crap shoot but ignoring the pundits and focusing on the details and data one can make better decisions[/quote]

Life can be so distracting and confusing though. The fog of war, the fog of life.

It was 100 % clear to me at age 13, after attending early conventions, that a substantial investment in comics would be profitable. Just look at tge numbers, the growth, the market excitement! I couldnt persuade my folks. Then, my testosterone kicked in and i lost interest too.

Life pulls in so many directions.

We should forgive ourselves therefore our dumb mistakes

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor]Anyone selling broad based predictions in RE is throwing lots of sh@t at the wall hoping somehting sticks. RE is about making good decisions and beating the market. [/quote]

Doesn’t the first sentence make the second sentence a crap shoot?[/quote]

Life can be a crap shoot but ignoring the pundits and focusing on the details and data one can make better decisions[/quote]

Oh I definitely listen to the pundits with a great deal of skepticism. But I think sometimes they enlighten me, or remind me, of long term trends I may forget in the day-to-day battleground of life.

And while all real estate is local, long term national trends certainly affect local real estate to some degree. I think his point of baby boomer downsizing is worth considering, as are the effects of 6 month and 12 month forbearance and how homeowners might react. Given the pent-up demand in San Diego, these events may have less effect on SD home prices than elsewhere in the nation, but they are worth keeping in mind.

Some of us on here do have real estate in other locations.

[sdrealtor]

Understood and I am focusing solely on the market in which we live iand I operate. my point is some thing I have long been trying to explain here and other places. while in the stock market you can buy indexes and averages. In real estate you buy a single home which has returns both financial and personal. Those returns can vary greatly from place to place including two houses right next to each other bought at the same time. Don’t get me wrong, I love following the data and the pundits but that is not what I use for decision making. I use experience and analysis specific to each property.

and for what it’s worth I don’t think the baby boomer downsizing will have a huge impact here. I look at myself as a perfect example. I have a home more than twice what I need in size but my mortgage is less than the rent for a one bedroom condo around here. I have an assessed real estate tax basis from 20+ years ago and selling would incur a very large income tax bill. I’m not going anywhere I just look forward to enjoying this place and sharing good times and great wines with friends and family here 🙂

That’s not to say there will not be boomers downsizing. There are just structural market forces at play here that will greatly temper that specifically in California and more specifically in San Diego County

[svelte]

[quote=scaredyclassic]

It was 100 % clear to me at age 13, after attending early conventions, that a substantial investment in comics would be profitable. Just look at the numbers, the growth, the market excitement!
[/quote]

Totally agree and that’s why I’m not so sold on the real value of a stock being its expected return over decades. It is hard enough for companies to make 5 year plans.
Anybody who tries to understand what a company’s returns will be decades down the road is probably going to be incorrect.

[scaredyclassic]

i will be germinating approximately 1000 cactus seeds over the next month. I anticipate start up costs of $250.00. Assuming a 50% survival rate, I should have 500 plants worth 200$ each, or $100,000 in inventory within 5 years. 500X the initial investment. But that’s just the next months worth of germination. We will be ramping up production. Over the course of the next 3 years, I see a meteoric rise as I take clippings, perfect germination rates and start planting in larger pots. There could easily be 5 million in cacti by fiscal year 2025. We go public in 2026, and are bought out in 2027 by cacti, international.

And if it doesnt work out, well, at least I have a lot of drought tolerant landscaping.

ALSO, WE HAD NOPALES FOR DINNER LAST NIGHT. GRILLED WITH PESTO SAUCE, LIKE A LITTLE CUTLET.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/320293

could just eat cacti and mustard greens.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=svelte][quote=scaredyclassic]

It was 100 % clear to me at age 13, after attending early conventions, that a substantial investment in comics would be profitable. Just look at the numbers, the growth, the market excitement!
[/quote]

Totally agree and that’s why I’m not so sold on the real value of a stock being its expected return over decades. It is hard enough for companies to make 5 year plans.
Anybody who tries to understand what a company’s returns will be decades down the road is probably going to be incorrect.[/quote]

comics bought at the conventions i went to in the mid 70s, damn, we couldve done well…shouldnt have spent that bar mitzvah money on weed

[Author]

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