I’m done trading for the next 3 months…blah…..

[Coronita]

So… in my speculation account… I made one bad trade in short position that wiped out $8k over the past 3 days….That sort of rubbed me the wrong way… And it freaked me out…I’m up about 10% so far, and it’s exceeded what I hoped to have done earlier in the year @ 8%…But, it was a tough thing to swallow…

So…I’m out…. I decided to sell most of my long positions, close those short positions, and keep only 30% of what I original had in equities….I’ll wait for maybe 1 or 2 quarters…

I didn’t touch my index funds, and my 401k, except I sold some small caps and exchanged that into some dividend funds and emerging markets index funds…
So if there is a continued market rally, hopefully my index funds will carry some decent gain along with the general market…

I’ll probably miss out on a good rally during the summer. For whatever reasons, I don’t trust my individual stock picking as much…. I’m very hesitant to move money into index funds right now…..

I don’t know why..But it seems as I get older, I’m getting more risk adverse…

Traders/stock pickers/investors. Take note… The FLU contrarian indicator has been disclosed, so it probably means, you should go long over the next two quarters and do really really really well..

[an]

Ouch, that sucks flu. I’ve been in your shoe many times. Every time I did what you’re doing (sell most of my portfolio and wait) I always end up missing a rally. That’s just me. I’m actually fully long on all 4 US indexes now. After the ECB announcement yesterday, I can’t help but go long. They’re forcing liquidity. Where else would the $?

You’re right, people risk aversion tend to go down as you age. It’s perfectly understandable and perfectly logical. You don’t have time to make up the loss with more risky investments like you did when you’re younger. So, it’s wise to be more risk averse when you age.

We’re definitely in uncharted territory right now in the US indexes. I wonder how high this thing will go.

[The-Shoveler]

Good now it’s not just me missing out setting on the side lines.

But it sure looks good for the U.S.A. right now IMO.

But If I go long big, that it!! bam!! over night huge decline for sure.

[spdrun]

The good thing is that the jobs report today wasn’t stronger than expected, and participation is still at a 36 year low. Meaning no strong economic growth/inflation/fellation yet.

OTOH, it’s strong enough for the “members” of the Fed board to continue the taper. Hopefully this will have a salutary corrective effect on stocks and home prices in the next 6-12 months, especially if the weather is nasty again (maybe another tough winter, here’s hoping, love snow).

A Goldilocks report. As a pessimist who wants everyone else’s glass to be at best half empty so they’ll toss it away for me to drain the dregs, I like it.

As far as stocks, buy stocks. Don’t buy the market. And why go short when there are always beaten-down stocks you can take a long position in? TWTR is up about 10-12% in the last two weeks. Would have been a perfect flip for those who had the stomach.

[all]

[quote=spdrun]The good thing is that the jobs report today wasn’t stronger than expected, and participation is still at a 36 year low. Meaning no strong economic growth/inflation/fellation yet.[/quote]

I agree. The fact that more people could not get a job and the absence of strong economic growth should be celebrated. Hippity hip…

[flyer]

I agree you do get more conservative with regard to financial risk as you grow older, and, IMO, that’s a good thing.

If the financial risks many of us took when we were young paid off as planned, we find we don’t have to put ourselves at risk later in life, and that is as it should be.

The greatest fear some of my non-union career friends have, is losing their jobs in their 50’s and not being able to get another job, or not having enough funds to retire at that point in time. Looking at the dismal stats on retirement funds in this country, that is a very real problem.

[ltsddd]

I gave up trying to guess when and what that catalyst is for the market to correct. I am concerned enough about the potential implosion that I turned to day/week-trading with my “speculation” account. I try to stick to a couple rules – 1. not holding anything over the weekend and 2. No shorting….well, I was doing quite well up until this morning when I cashed in on VOD (nice gain after holding it for 2 days). The euphoria must have clouded my judgement and I broke both rules after that, I bought UVXY and didn’t unload it at the end of the day….I might be in a world of hurt come Monday.

[SK in CV]

[quote=ltsdd]I bought UVXY and didn’t unload it at the end of the day….I might be in a world of hurt come Monday.[/quote]

VIX is at it’s lowest weekly close in more than 3 years. I got into UVXY again yesterday too. VIX has to go up eventually. Just a matter of whether the theta of the leverage kills me first. It’s been brutal the last few months. It’s lost almost 60% since it’s reverse split less than 5 months ago. Can’t hold it too long.

[joec]

Another reason people are more conservative investing as they get older is because typically, they have kids now, a wife, a mortgage, etc…

I think if I was older (like now) without those things, I’d probably be just as reckless or risk taking. When you don’t have anyone else depending on you to live/survive, I don’t think men worry about the future as much…One of the side reasons I think men, in general are doing worst than women now when it comes to career/work/family/etc…

Women are insanely worried about these things and are constantly thinking.

A lot of men just don’t care as much and are ok with sitting around more so than women IMO…

Still, being young, you can swing for the fences and still have “time” to try something else…

I’m already at the point in my life feeling a bit defeated and resolved to just get through the next decade at least till the kids are grown/in college…Then maybe, my 3rd life can start. Anyone else feel that way? I suppose it’s the feeling that you’ve had “your chance” to do whatever you wanted…for now at least.

I think it’s mostly the kids though making me feel this way since a lot of decisions (and time/money/resources) are made due to the kids. And kids are damn expensive…

[ltsddd]

[quote=SK in CV][quote=ltsdd]I bought UVXY and didn’t unload it at the end of the day….I might be in a world of hurt come Monday.[/quote]

VIX is at it’s lowest weekly close in more than 3 years. I got into UVXY again yesterday too. VIX has to go up eventually. Just a matter of whether the theta of the leverage kills me first. It’s been brutal the last few months. It’s lost almost 60% since it’s reverse split less than 5 months ago. Can’t hold it too long.[/quote]

I think if you can weather the near-term downtrend you might be royally rewarded (on second thought, UVXY has been on this perpetual downtrend since it was created). I bought it today hoping for a nice little bounce that never came…and got carried away at a luncheon that I missed the closing bell by 7 minutes…oh well.

[SK in CV]

T[quote=ltsdd]
I think if you can weather the near-term downtrend you might be royally rewarded (on second thought, UVXY has been on this perpetual downtrend since it was created). I bought it today hoping for a nice little bounce that never came…and got carried away at a luncheon that I missed the closing bell by 7 minutes…oh well.[/quote]

It can’t do anything but go down long term. Because it’s leveraged, it’s essentially an insurance policy, and the premiums erode with time. The only way to hold it without losing significant principle is to sell premium against it when it’s up. With it so low, that can’t possibly work, so it’s purely a timing play.

[Author]

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