Huge amount of Temecula area REO’s

[cashflow]

For those of us that follow the Temecula market, I just had to comment as my husband and I decided to drive by some of the listings that were in the low 300’s & high 200’s. (Yes I have to admit that the waiting game is getting to me and we are getting tempted by the low prices). We were amazed driving through one of the communities in Murrieta-the SCGA golf course community that was built around ’05. We counted over 20 homes for sale on just a couple streets and most were empty and stated bank owned! Then looking at the neighbors of these homes we noticed quite a few moving trucks and some people had boxes stacked in the garage…seems like more inventory coming to this neighborhood soon.

It really hit home on how this is affecting families and it is so horrible. On the flip side, driving through this neighborhood put things a bit back in perspective…it’s still the beginning and it’s only going to get worse.

So my question is to the Temecula area potential buyers…where do you think the price per sq. ft is going to bottom out? I’m shocked to already see $100/sq ft….

[bearvine]

$75 sq ft in Morgan Hill…is what I said is when we start buying again, and that means less in other areas.
Others have mocked and challenged our observations about Temecula in past threads,and we’ll say it again the worse is yet to come.

BTW, in regards to Morgan Hill, I wonder what it feels like to be the new group of home closings in the McMillin developments, excited to move into a home with green lawns, and the future so bright. And then to see the block of homes next to your block, where the same feelings were felt by the home buyers just a few months ago, and now their lawns are brown, and they are trying to figure out where to live.

Must not feel so good.

[snail]

BearVine,
don’t worry, I saved your quote dated:
October, 2007
Morgan Hill @75/sq.ft ($300K for 4000 sqft)
I saved it because there were some that disagreed, so we should wait and revisit again in November 2008. Be patient.

[snail]

BearVine,
don’t worry, I saved your quote dated:
October, 2007
Morgan Hill @75/sq.ft ($300K for 4000 sqft)
I saved it because there were some that disagreed, so we should wait and revisit again in November 2008. Be patient.

[snail]

BearVine,
don’t worry, I saved your quote dated:
October, 2007
Morgan Hill @75/sq.ft ($300K for 4000 sqft)
I saved it because there were some that disagreed, so we should wait and revisit again in November 2008. Be patient.

[snail]

BearVine,
don’t worry, I saved your quote dated:
October, 2007
Morgan Hill @75/sq.ft ($300K for 4000 sqft)
I saved it because there were some that disagreed, so we should wait and revisit again in November 2008. Be patient.

[snail]

BearVine,
don’t worry, I saved your quote dated:
October, 2007
Morgan Hill @75/sq.ft ($300K for 4000 sqft)
I saved it because there were some that disagreed, so we should wait and revisit again in November 2008. Be patient.

[Anonymous]

bearvine, I am checking out Morgan Hill as well, and I am not a real estate expert nor do I play one on television. $75/sq foot would be awesome, no doubt about it. But the problem I see is the possibility that hundreds if not thousands of fellow bubble sitters might be scoping the same property/area at the same price point and if all collectively agree that “the bottom has been reached, let’s go out and buy” doesn’t supply and demand kick back in? Unless you anticipate such massive inventory that this will not be an issue. Isn’t the key to getting the property you want to be a half-step ahead of the bubble sitting herd and maybe buy in at 85 instead of 75, or is that “knife-catching?” Or what if 75 is never reached, at what point are you prepared to acknowledge a bottom and get back in? The problem I see (and maybe you can educate me) is that when everyone collectively agrees it’s the bottom, then its already too late to get the property you want?

[Anonymous]

bearvine, I am checking out Morgan Hill as well, and I am not a real estate expert nor do I play one on television. $75/sq foot would be awesome, no doubt about it. But the problem I see is the possibility that hundreds if not thousands of fellow bubble sitters might be scoping the same property/area at the same price point and if all collectively agree that “the bottom has been reached, let’s go out and buy” doesn’t supply and demand kick back in? Unless you anticipate such massive inventory that this will not be an issue. Isn’t the key to getting the property you want to be a half-step ahead of the bubble sitting herd and maybe buy in at 85 instead of 75, or is that “knife-catching?” Or what if 75 is never reached, at what point are you prepared to acknowledge a bottom and get back in? The problem I see (and maybe you can educate me) is that when everyone collectively agrees it’s the bottom, then its already too late to get the property you want?

[Anonymous]

bearvine, I am checking out Morgan Hill as well, and I am not a real estate expert nor do I play one on television. $75/sq foot would be awesome, no doubt about it. But the problem I see is the possibility that hundreds if not thousands of fellow bubble sitters might be scoping the same property/area at the same price point and if all collectively agree that “the bottom has been reached, let’s go out and buy” doesn’t supply and demand kick back in? Unless you anticipate such massive inventory that this will not be an issue. Isn’t the key to getting the property you want to be a half-step ahead of the bubble sitting herd and maybe buy in at 85 instead of 75, or is that “knife-catching?” Or what if 75 is never reached, at what point are you prepared to acknowledge a bottom and get back in? The problem I see (and maybe you can educate me) is that when everyone collectively agrees it’s the bottom, then its already too late to get the property you want?

[Anonymous]

bearvine, I am checking out Morgan Hill as well, and I am not a real estate expert nor do I play one on television. $75/sq foot would be awesome, no doubt about it. But the problem I see is the possibility that hundreds if not thousands of fellow bubble sitters might be scoping the same property/area at the same price point and if all collectively agree that “the bottom has been reached, let’s go out and buy” doesn’t supply and demand kick back in? Unless you anticipate such massive inventory that this will not be an issue. Isn’t the key to getting the property you want to be a half-step ahead of the bubble sitting herd and maybe buy in at 85 instead of 75, or is that “knife-catching?” Or what if 75 is never reached, at what point are you prepared to acknowledge a bottom and get back in? The problem I see (and maybe you can educate me) is that when everyone collectively agrees it’s the bottom, then its already too late to get the property you want?

[Anonymous]

bearvine, I am checking out Morgan Hill as well, and I am not a real estate expert nor do I play one on television. $75/sq foot would be awesome, no doubt about it. But the problem I see is the possibility that hundreds if not thousands of fellow bubble sitters might be scoping the same property/area at the same price point and if all collectively agree that “the bottom has been reached, let’s go out and buy” doesn’t supply and demand kick back in? Unless you anticipate such massive inventory that this will not be an issue. Isn’t the key to getting the property you want to be a half-step ahead of the bubble sitting herd and maybe buy in at 85 instead of 75, or is that “knife-catching?” Or what if 75 is never reached, at what point are you prepared to acknowledge a bottom and get back in? The problem I see (and maybe you can educate me) is that when everyone collectively agrees it’s the bottom, then its already too late to get the property you want?

[bearvine]

$75 sq ft in Morgan Hill…is what I said is when we start buying again, and that means less in other areas.
Others have mocked and challenged our observations about Temecula in past threads,and we’ll say it again the worse is yet to come.

BTW, in regards to Morgan Hill, I wonder what it feels like to be the new group of home closings in the McMillin developments, excited to move into a home with green lawns, and the future so bright. And then to see the block of homes next to your block, where the same feelings were felt by the home buyers just a few months ago, and now their lawns are brown, and they are trying to figure out where to live.

Must not feel so good.

[bearvine]

$75 sq ft in Morgan Hill…is what I said is when we start buying again, and that means less in other areas.
Others have mocked and challenged our observations about Temecula in past threads,and we’ll say it again the worse is yet to come.

BTW, in regards to Morgan Hill, I wonder what it feels like to be the new group of home closings in the McMillin developments, excited to move into a home with green lawns, and the future so bright. And then to see the block of homes next to your block, where the same feelings were felt by the home buyers just a few months ago, and now their lawns are brown, and they are trying to figure out where to live.

Must not feel so good.

[bearvine]

$75 sq ft in Morgan Hill…is what I said is when we start buying again, and that means less in other areas.
Others have mocked and challenged our observations about Temecula in past threads,and we’ll say it again the worse is yet to come.

BTW, in regards to Morgan Hill, I wonder what it feels like to be the new group of home closings in the McMillin developments, excited to move into a home with green lawns, and the future so bright. And then to see the block of homes next to your block, where the same feelings were felt by the home buyers just a few months ago, and now their lawns are brown, and they are trying to figure out where to live.

Must not feel so good.

[bearvine]

$75 sq ft in Morgan Hill…is what I said is when we start buying again, and that means less in other areas.
Others have mocked and challenged our observations about Temecula in past threads,and we’ll say it again the worse is yet to come.

BTW, in regards to Morgan Hill, I wonder what it feels like to be the new group of home closings in the McMillin developments, excited to move into a home with green lawns, and the future so bright. And then to see the block of homes next to your block, where the same feelings were felt by the home buyers just a few months ago, and now their lawns are brown, and they are trying to figure out where to live.

Must not feel so good.

[HLS]

“we are getting tempted by the low prices”

What low prices ?? Prices aren’t low.

[Ex-SD]

Prices are nowhere near the bottom yet in Temecula.
There was a poster on here several days ago who had posted last year that he was being pressured by his wife to buy in Temecula. Many (and I mean, MANY) of us told him NOT to do it. He bought and now, he and his wife are living in 1900 sq ft and a he can buy a 3200 sq ft home for less money. Do you want to wind up like them?
See the thread: http://piggington.com/harveston_down_the_drain

Wait until next January and see where the prices are and how things are trending before you throw your money down the toilet and are stuck with a depreciating asset. I’m in the camp that believes the bottom won’t really hit until around 2012 but even if I’m wrong and it comes earlier to Temecula, prices are definitely NOT going to shoot back up overnight, nor will there be a lack of inventory to choose from for years. Time is on the side of the buyers…….IN SPADES! Rent, relax and take your time to see where all of this is headed.

[Ex-SD]

Prices are nowhere near the bottom yet in Temecula.
There was a poster on here several days ago who had posted last year that he was being pressured by his wife to buy in Temecula. Many (and I mean, MANY) of us told him NOT to do it. He bought and now, he and his wife are living in 1900 sq ft and a he can buy a 3200 sq ft home for less money. Do you want to wind up like them?
See the thread: http://piggington.com/harveston_down_the_drain

Wait until next January and see where the prices are and how things are trending before you throw your money down the toilet and are stuck with a depreciating asset. I’m in the camp that believes the bottom won’t really hit until around 2012 but even if I’m wrong and it comes earlier to Temecula, prices are definitely NOT going to shoot back up overnight, nor will there be a lack of inventory to choose from for years. Time is on the side of the buyers…….IN SPADES! Rent, relax and take your time to see where all of this is headed.

[Ex-SD]

Prices are nowhere near the bottom yet in Temecula.
There was a poster on here several days ago who had posted last year that he was being pressured by his wife to buy in Temecula. Many (and I mean, MANY) of us told him NOT to do it. He bought and now, he and his wife are living in 1900 sq ft and a he can buy a 3200 sq ft home for less money. Do you want to wind up like them?
See the thread: http://piggington.com/harveston_down_the_drain

Wait until next January and see where the prices are and how things are trending before you throw your money down the toilet and are stuck with a depreciating asset. I’m in the camp that believes the bottom won’t really hit until around 2012 but even if I’m wrong and it comes earlier to Temecula, prices are definitely NOT going to shoot back up overnight, nor will there be a lack of inventory to choose from for years. Time is on the side of the buyers…….IN SPADES! Rent, relax and take your time to see where all of this is headed.

[Ex-SD]

Prices are nowhere near the bottom yet in Temecula.
There was a poster on here several days ago who had posted last year that he was being pressured by his wife to buy in Temecula. Many (and I mean, MANY) of us told him NOT to do it. He bought and now, he and his wife are living in 1900 sq ft and a he can buy a 3200 sq ft home for less money. Do you want to wind up like them?
See the thread: http://piggington.com/harveston_down_the_drain

Wait until next January and see where the prices are and how things are trending before you throw your money down the toilet and are stuck with a depreciating asset. I’m in the camp that believes the bottom won’t really hit until around 2012 but even if I’m wrong and it comes earlier to Temecula, prices are definitely NOT going to shoot back up overnight, nor will there be a lack of inventory to choose from for years. Time is on the side of the buyers…….IN SPADES! Rent, relax and take your time to see where all of this is headed.

[Ex-SD]

Prices are nowhere near the bottom yet in Temecula.
There was a poster on here several days ago who had posted last year that he was being pressured by his wife to buy in Temecula. Many (and I mean, MANY) of us told him NOT to do it. He bought and now, he and his wife are living in 1900 sq ft and a he can buy a 3200 sq ft home for less money. Do you want to wind up like them?
See the thread: http://piggington.com/harveston_down_the_drain

Wait until next January and see where the prices are and how things are trending before you throw your money down the toilet and are stuck with a depreciating asset. I’m in the camp that believes the bottom won’t really hit until around 2012 but even if I’m wrong and it comes earlier to Temecula, prices are definitely NOT going to shoot back up overnight, nor will there be a lack of inventory to choose from for years. Time is on the side of the buyers…….IN SPADES! Rent, relax and take your time to see where all of this is headed.

[HLS]

“we are getting tempted by the low prices”

What low prices ?? Prices aren’t low.

[HLS]

“we are getting tempted by the low prices”

What low prices ?? Prices aren’t low.

[HLS]

“we are getting tempted by the low prices”

What low prices ?? Prices aren’t low.

[HLS]

“we are getting tempted by the low prices”

What low prices ?? Prices aren’t low.

[svelte]

We did the wine tasting loop in the Temecula wine country this weekend. I couldn’t believe the number of for sale signs on glenoakes and de portola roads.

It was over the top.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I am in the camp that thinks when it becomes cash flow neutral for investors to put down 20% and a 30 year mortgage, That will be about the bottom for any given area, given that I think Temecula will bottom out sooner than most areas. But at the same time it’s not going to rocket up over night either (unless something unforeseen happens like hyper inflation or something).

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

[patientlywaiting]

Nor-La-SD-Guy wrote:

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

*

It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore.

Considering Mello Roos and HOAs, Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

6% interest (load amount 160K (40K down)

Payment $959.28 .

My Rate tax is 1.4 (1.4 X 200K = 2800 / 12 = 233.33)

My HOA = $70 a month .
about 50 a month for insurance.
= $ 1312.60 round abouts.

That’s cheap rent for a 3000 sqf home.. IMO

But good luck.

[patientlywaiting]

Per your previous statement, you bought at $108/sf. 3000sf @ $108/sf = $324,000.

How does the loan amount of $160,000 after a $40,000 down reconcile with the above?

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I was taking your
“Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.”

and applying that ,

I just don’t think it will get that low, but who know’s

.

Good luck to you.

[patientlywaiting]

Oh, OK. I get it.

$200k might not get you a 3000sf house. But at $75/sf that’s $2600sf. Very possible in my opinion.

Yeah, who knows. Time will tell.

[patientlywaiting]

Oh, OK. I get it.

$200k might not get you a 3000sf house. But at $75/sf that’s $2600sf. Very possible in my opinion.

Yeah, who knows. Time will tell.

[patientlywaiting]

Oh, OK. I get it.

$200k might not get you a 3000sf house. But at $75/sf that’s $2600sf. Very possible in my opinion.

Yeah, who knows. Time will tell.

[patientlywaiting]

Oh, OK. I get it.

$200k might not get you a 3000sf house. But at $75/sf that’s $2600sf. Very possible in my opinion.

Yeah, who knows. Time will tell.

[patientlywaiting]

Oh, OK. I get it.

$200k might not get you a 3000sf house. But at $75/sf that’s $2600sf. Very possible in my opinion.

Yeah, who knows. Time will tell.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I was taking your
“Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.”

and applying that ,

I just don’t think it will get that low, but who know’s

.

Good luck to you.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I was taking your
“Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.”

and applying that ,

I just don’t think it will get that low, but who know’s

.

Good luck to you.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I was taking your
“Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.”

and applying that ,

I just don’t think it will get that low, but who know’s

.

Good luck to you.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I was taking your
“Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.”

and applying that ,

I just don’t think it will get that low, but who know’s

.

Good luck to you.

[patientlywaiting]

Per your previous statement, you bought at $108/sf. 3000sf @ $108/sf = $324,000.

How does the loan amount of $160,000 after a $40,000 down reconcile with the above?

[patientlywaiting]

Per your previous statement, you bought at $108/sf. 3000sf @ $108/sf = $324,000.

How does the loan amount of $160,000 after a $40,000 down reconcile with the above?

[patientlywaiting]

Per your previous statement, you bought at $108/sf. 3000sf @ $108/sf = $324,000.

How does the loan amount of $160,000 after a $40,000 down reconcile with the above?

[patientlywaiting]

Per your previous statement, you bought at $108/sf. 3000sf @ $108/sf = $324,000.

How does the loan amount of $160,000 after a $40,000 down reconcile with the above?

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

6% interest (load amount 160K (40K down)

Payment $959.28 .

My Rate tax is 1.4 (1.4 X 200K = 2800 / 12 = 233.33)

My HOA = $70 a month .
about 50 a month for insurance.
= $ 1312.60 round abouts.

That’s cheap rent for a 3000 sqf home.. IMO

But good luck.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

6% interest (load amount 160K (40K down)

Payment $959.28 .

My Rate tax is 1.4 (1.4 X 200K = 2800 / 12 = 233.33)

My HOA = $70 a month .
about 50 a month for insurance.
= $ 1312.60 round abouts.

That’s cheap rent for a 3000 sqf home.. IMO

But good luck.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

6% interest (load amount 160K (40K down)

Payment $959.28 .

My Rate tax is 1.4 (1.4 X 200K = 2800 / 12 = 233.33)

My HOA = $70 a month .
about 50 a month for insurance.
= $ 1312.60 round abouts.

That’s cheap rent for a 3000 sqf home.. IMO

But good luck.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

6% interest (load amount 160K (40K down)

Payment $959.28 .

My Rate tax is 1.4 (1.4 X 200K = 2800 / 12 = 233.33)

My HOA = $70 a month .
about 50 a month for insurance.
= $ 1312.60 round abouts.

That’s cheap rent for a 3000 sqf home.. IMO

But good luck.

[vizcaya]

patientlywaiting wrote:
It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore. —

I am not in that camp that believes prices will not fall. I bought late last year. I purchased at 30% below peak, and put in a low ball offer. 6 months later, I am seeing homes being sold at what I paid. Do I think prices will fall furthur? Yep, and I believe it will come down another 20% before It levels off.

I am in Riverside(92508), and homes out here have been slower to fall than in Temecula and Murrietta. I am seeing prices of bank owned homes down to about $135 sq ft. I would say about 90 percent off all the homes on the market in my zip, are Bank owned or short sales.

[paramount]

I still say $75/sf at Morgan Hill will not happen – unless we have a very deep recession.

Not all areas of Temecula and Murrieta are created equal.

Morgan Hill is a desirable place to live IMO, and we will soon be getting a regional hospital.

The market will probably over-correct, but I don’t think to that extent ($75/sf).

That would mean some houses in Morgan Hill will start at: 180k. Not going to happen, put the crack pipe down.

[golfproz]

92508 in Riverside is starting to move closer to $100 sq/ft for the price leaders. This short for instance is $101 sq/ft MLS Y800396, or this REO at $116 MLS T08023981. There are quite a few under $120 sq/ft now, when just a couple of months ago there was practically nothing under $130 sq/ft. Most of the lower priced stuff are still short sales. But a few of the REOs are under $120 sq/ft… and dropping fast.

This area was well under $100 sq/ft in 2001/2002. And I think it will be going back to that price range ($70-$80 sq/ft for the larger generic tract houses).

[paramount]

IMO California is full of scammers and con artists. I believe many people who comment that prices will get to a certain low point are just trying to do their part to influence the market (much of which is psychologically based) in order to profiteer.

[paramount]

IMO California is full of scammers and con artists. I believe many people who comment that prices will get to a certain low point are just trying to do their part to influence the market (much of which is psychologically based) in order to profiteer.

[paramount]

IMO California is full of scammers and con artists. I believe many people who comment that prices will get to a certain low point are just trying to do their part to influence the market (much of which is psychologically based) in order to profiteer.

[paramount]

IMO California is full of scammers and con artists. I believe many people who comment that prices will get to a certain low point are just trying to do their part to influence the market (much of which is psychologically based) in order to profiteer.

[paramount]

IMO California is full of scammers and con artists. I believe many people who comment that prices will get to a certain low point are just trying to do their part to influence the market (much of which is psychologically based) in order to profiteer.

[golfproz]

92508 in Riverside is starting to move closer to $100 sq/ft for the price leaders. This short for instance is $101 sq/ft MLS Y800396, or this REO at $116 MLS T08023981. There are quite a few under $120 sq/ft now, when just a couple of months ago there was practically nothing under $130 sq/ft. Most of the lower priced stuff are still short sales. But a few of the REOs are under $120 sq/ft… and dropping fast.

This area was well under $100 sq/ft in 2001/2002. And I think it will be going back to that price range ($70-$80 sq/ft for the larger generic tract houses).

[golfproz]

92508 in Riverside is starting to move closer to $100 sq/ft for the price leaders. This short for instance is $101 sq/ft MLS Y800396, or this REO at $116 MLS T08023981. There are quite a few under $120 sq/ft now, when just a couple of months ago there was practically nothing under $130 sq/ft. Most of the lower priced stuff are still short sales. But a few of the REOs are under $120 sq/ft… and dropping fast.

This area was well under $100 sq/ft in 2001/2002. And I think it will be going back to that price range ($70-$80 sq/ft for the larger generic tract houses).

[golfproz]

92508 in Riverside is starting to move closer to $100 sq/ft for the price leaders. This short for instance is $101 sq/ft MLS Y800396, or this REO at $116 MLS T08023981. There are quite a few under $120 sq/ft now, when just a couple of months ago there was practically nothing under $130 sq/ft. Most of the lower priced stuff are still short sales. But a few of the REOs are under $120 sq/ft… and dropping fast.

This area was well under $100 sq/ft in 2001/2002. And I think it will be going back to that price range ($70-$80 sq/ft for the larger generic tract houses).

[golfproz]

92508 in Riverside is starting to move closer to $100 sq/ft for the price leaders. This short for instance is $101 sq/ft MLS Y800396, or this REO at $116 MLS T08023981. There are quite a few under $120 sq/ft now, when just a couple of months ago there was practically nothing under $130 sq/ft. Most of the lower priced stuff are still short sales. But a few of the REOs are under $120 sq/ft… and dropping fast.

This area was well under $100 sq/ft in 2001/2002. And I think it will be going back to that price range ($70-$80 sq/ft for the larger generic tract houses).

[bearvine]

Disagree if you’d like…

But telling me to put the crack pipe down, those are fighting words…I have displayed in previous threads knowledge of Temecula beyond most on this board, and it comes from having lived there, invested there, been involved in the political and business communities, and a strong background in investment and real estate matters.

We all do what we have to do to survive in this world, and many of us on these boards are doing our best to warn others without the same knowledge to be wary and prepare for a deep recession.

What’s the worse that can happen in being patient? Interest rates will not go up for some time, and prices certainly aren’t going up. Prices can only go down or stay stagnant.

In regards to all the bottom feeders waiting to snap up property, that’s not going to happen either. Last week, 40 homes went to auction in Orange County at the Santa Ana courthouse. 2 sold. 2. I had a colleague with $1.2m ready to buy a home in Irvine, and the bank wouldnt take less than $1.5. Down from a sales price of $2.5 in 2007, and $2m this year. Cheap stuff didnt sell either.

Go to Redfin, type in 92592, and see how many green for sale signs come up. You will have to narrow your search to the area over Morgan Hill, because there are too many homes to map. Get over Morgan and Redhawk, and boom, 443 houses for sale. Simple supply and demand.

For a human side, look at http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1452962 this guy 2 years ago had the nicest looking tract home in Morgan. Talked about it being worth a million bucks. Had the giant K Hov Plan 4 with a 4 car garage that people fought over during the phase release. Next thing you know it, gotta move, brown lawn, bank cant get $117 sq ft for it.

Then look at all the Greystone/Redhawk homes on Manchester right below Morgan that the banks cant find buyers at in the $100’s sq ft for.

Morgan Hill may be one of the nicest areas in Temecula, but it will get dragged down by the rest of the area, and with help from homes being short sold within the community.

Then add the guys who will “walk away” like those on the board who are talking about doing such.

Personally, I don’t want to see a recession. I make more money when the economy is moving. But a realist I am.

For those of you trying to figure out what to do, just look at the facts.

There’s no changing the myopic views of some of those out there whether they be bears or bulls.

[cashflow]

Bearvine I do appreciate your posts and it shows that you have great knowledge of this area. My husband and I were just discussing your $75/sqft…hey it could happen, and we’ll keep this as a price to look for.

Thanks to all here as I’m always looking on this board to keep me sane! You all bring me to my senses on this market and where we are headed!

Now all the talk about crime in Temecula is a surprise to me…I really can’t think that this area will all of a sudden be crimeridden. It’s mostly hard working families, so I just don’t see crime being a significant issue around there….
We are in RB right now and there’s been lots of talk about hate crimes rising and issues at RB high school around this…but like someone said…there’s crazy’s everywhere.

[paramount]

You can keep looking for $75/sf – and it will happen (if not already) in some parts of Temecula – but not Morgan Hill. That would be like prices returning to mid 1990’s levels or even earlier.

Of course you like his posts, b/c you probably want to buy a house in MH for $75/sf. Keep dreaming – if it gets that cheap we’ll all be in trouble.

I own a 1500 sq. ft. house in Paloma Del Sol – according to the $75/sq. ft. theory for Morgan Hill, that would mean my house would probably be worth around 100k.

I do see my house dropping to around 180-200k or so, but not 100k – if that happens unemployment will be through the roof and this country will truly be in trouble. That won’t be good for anybody except the Richistans.

BTW, if I had to hazard a guess, I would say most of the crime in Temecula is committed by (or related to) renters.

In fact, if my memory serves me correctly most if not all of the murders committed last year were by renters.

[Deal Hunter]

Unless Temecula has some support for the local economy or some reason for population migration, I’d err on the side of it turning down for a while to come. If you are looking for $75-$100 a SF and a good rental market, look in Las Vegas.

http://www.RealEstateDealHunters.com

No kidding.

[paramount]

Yes, it will go down – it already has and will continue, but $75/sf for the most premium section of Temecula; I just don’t think it will happen.

There is local economic support for Temecula – The Marines just for starters…

[4plexowner]

E-1 (buck private) in Marines makes $1245.90 per month

E-5 (Sargent) with 6 years in makes $2405.10 per month

E-6 (staff sargent) with 12 years – $3105.00 per month

O-1 (starting officer grade) – $2555.70 per month

O-3 (captain) with 4 years in $4545.60 per month

http://www.defenselink.mil/militarypay/pay/bp/paytables/2008%20Basic%20Pay%20Table%20_capped.pdf

If the Marine is living off base they get a food allowance – $202.76/month for officers and $294.43 for enlisted

The housing allowance varies by region and I didn’t find numbers for San Diego county

Perhaps the income numbers above aren’t so bad if your rent or mortgage is also paid by the military

~

As far as the Marines supporting the local economy – talk to some business owners and/or landlords in Oceanside about their economy when the Marines are deployed

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

If I am not mistaken I think there are Three fortune 500 companies in the Temecula valley, Abbott Labs for starters, I think another one is international rectifier can’t remember the third.

Also I think Temecula has always been kind of a retirement haven. but that may be changing as it has grown.

[SDHousehunter]

Interesting comments by everyone.

Morgan Hill will hit $75

I want to please remind everyone that housing is not falling because noone wants to by homes. Housing is falling because Banks DO NOT WANT TO LEND TO PEOPLE!

This crisis is a credit crisis. . . . and until we solve the CDO Swap Tsunami that is coming there will be no available capital to invest into Mortgage Backed Securities as was the early part of this dcade. I think the Chinese have already digested enough of our toxic waste debt that I doubt anyone else will buy our paper.

Until that happens lending criteria will tighten, salaries will decrease and sales will decline. On order for liquidity flow to continue housing deflation is inevitable. . .. prices have to decline.

A good friend of mine is an investment bank analyst for real estate. His comment is that we are returning to a lending model structure of the late 80s.

Prices do not go down 24% annually and then up 10% in the absence of a growing credit market.

We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010.

This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

HI SDHouse,

One thing I would add is,

At the moment at least there is plenty of credit available to those with a down payment and at least a moderately good credit report (that may change), So I think right now there is at least a little of (so how low is it going to go Uncertainty waiting going on).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

HI SDHouse,

One thing I would add is,

At the moment at least there is plenty of credit available to those with a down payment and at least a moderately good credit report (that may change), So I think right now there is at least a little of (so how low is it going to go Uncertainty waiting going on).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

HI SDHouse,

One thing I would add is,

At the moment at least there is plenty of credit available to those with a down payment and at least a moderately good credit report (that may change), So I think right now there is at least a little of (so how low is it going to go Uncertainty waiting going on).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

HI SDHouse,

One thing I would add is,

At the moment at least there is plenty of credit available to those with a down payment and at least a moderately good credit report (that may change), So I think right now there is at least a little of (so how low is it going to go Uncertainty waiting going on).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

HI SDHouse,

One thing I would add is,

At the moment at least there is plenty of credit available to those with a down payment and at least a moderately good credit report (that may change), So I think right now there is at least a little of (so how low is it going to go Uncertainty waiting going on).

[SDHousehunter]

Interesting comments by everyone.

Morgan Hill will hit $75

I want to please remind everyone that housing is not falling because noone wants to by homes. Housing is falling because Banks DO NOT WANT TO LEND TO PEOPLE!

This crisis is a credit crisis. . . . and until we solve the CDO Swap Tsunami that is coming there will be no available capital to invest into Mortgage Backed Securities as was the early part of this dcade. I think the Chinese have already digested enough of our toxic waste debt that I doubt anyone else will buy our paper.

Until that happens lending criteria will tighten, salaries will decrease and sales will decline. On order for liquidity flow to continue housing deflation is inevitable. . .. prices have to decline.

A good friend of mine is an investment bank analyst for real estate. His comment is that we are returning to a lending model structure of the late 80s.

Prices do not go down 24% annually and then up 10% in the absence of a growing credit market.

We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010.

This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter

[SDHousehunter]

Interesting comments by everyone.

Morgan Hill will hit $75

I want to please remind everyone that housing is not falling because noone wants to by homes. Housing is falling because Banks DO NOT WANT TO LEND TO PEOPLE!

This crisis is a credit crisis. . . . and until we solve the CDO Swap Tsunami that is coming there will be no available capital to invest into Mortgage Backed Securities as was the early part of this dcade. I think the Chinese have already digested enough of our toxic waste debt that I doubt anyone else will buy our paper.

Until that happens lending criteria will tighten, salaries will decrease and sales will decline. On order for liquidity flow to continue housing deflation is inevitable. . .. prices have to decline.

A good friend of mine is an investment bank analyst for real estate. His comment is that we are returning to a lending model structure of the late 80s.

Prices do not go down 24% annually and then up 10% in the absence of a growing credit market.

We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010.

This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter

[SDHousehunter]

Interesting comments by everyone.

Morgan Hill will hit $75

I want to please remind everyone that housing is not falling because noone wants to by homes. Housing is falling because Banks DO NOT WANT TO LEND TO PEOPLE!

This crisis is a credit crisis. . . . and until we solve the CDO Swap Tsunami that is coming there will be no available capital to invest into Mortgage Backed Securities as was the early part of this dcade. I think the Chinese have already digested enough of our toxic waste debt that I doubt anyone else will buy our paper.

Until that happens lending criteria will tighten, salaries will decrease and sales will decline. On order for liquidity flow to continue housing deflation is inevitable. . .. prices have to decline.

A good friend of mine is an investment bank analyst for real estate. His comment is that we are returning to a lending model structure of the late 80s.

Prices do not go down 24% annually and then up 10% in the absence of a growing credit market.

We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010.

This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter

[SDHousehunter]

Interesting comments by everyone.

Morgan Hill will hit $75

I want to please remind everyone that housing is not falling because noone wants to by homes. Housing is falling because Banks DO NOT WANT TO LEND TO PEOPLE!

This crisis is a credit crisis. . . . and until we solve the CDO Swap Tsunami that is coming there will be no available capital to invest into Mortgage Backed Securities as was the early part of this dcade. I think the Chinese have already digested enough of our toxic waste debt that I doubt anyone else will buy our paper.

Until that happens lending criteria will tighten, salaries will decrease and sales will decline. On order for liquidity flow to continue housing deflation is inevitable. . .. prices have to decline.

A good friend of mine is an investment bank analyst for real estate. His comment is that we are returning to a lending model structure of the late 80s.

Prices do not go down 24% annually and then up 10% in the absence of a growing credit market.

We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010.

This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

If I am not mistaken I think there are Three fortune 500 companies in the Temecula valley, Abbott Labs for starters, I think another one is international rectifier can’t remember the third.

Also I think Temecula has always been kind of a retirement haven. but that may be changing as it has grown.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

If I am not mistaken I think there are Three fortune 500 companies in the Temecula valley, Abbott Labs for starters, I think another one is international rectifier can’t remember the third.

Also I think Temecula has always been kind of a retirement haven. but that may be changing as it has grown.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

If I am not mistaken I think there are Three fortune 500 companies in the Temecula valley, Abbott Labs for starters, I think another one is international rectifier can’t remember the third.

Also I think Temecula has always been kind of a retirement haven. but that may be changing as it has grown.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

If I am not mistaken I think there are Three fortune 500 companies in the Temecula valley, Abbott Labs for starters, I think another one is international rectifier can’t remember the third.

Also I think Temecula has always been kind of a retirement haven. but that may be changing as it has grown.

[4plexowner]

E-1 (buck private) in Marines makes $1245.90 per month

E-5 (Sargent) with 6 years in makes $2405.10 per month

E-6 (staff sargent) with 12 years – $3105.00 per month

O-1 (starting officer grade) – $2555.70 per month

O-3 (captain) with 4 years in $4545.60 per month

http://www.defenselink.mil/militarypay/pay/bp/paytables/2008%20Basic%20Pay%20Table%20_capped.pdf

If the Marine is living off base they get a food allowance – $202.76/month for officers and $294.43 for enlisted

The housing allowance varies by region and I didn’t find numbers for San Diego county

Perhaps the income numbers above aren’t so bad if your rent or mortgage is also paid by the military

~

As far as the Marines supporting the local economy – talk to some business owners and/or landlords in Oceanside about their economy when the Marines are deployed

[4plexowner]

E-1 (buck private) in Marines makes $1245.90 per month

E-5 (Sargent) with 6 years in makes $2405.10 per month

E-6 (staff sargent) with 12 years – $3105.00 per month

O-1 (starting officer grade) – $2555.70 per month

O-3 (captain) with 4 years in $4545.60 per month

http://www.defenselink.mil/militarypay/pay/bp/paytables/2008%20Basic%20Pay%20Table%20_capped.pdf

If the Marine is living off base they get a food allowance – $202.76/month for officers and $294.43 for enlisted

The housing allowance varies by region and I didn’t find numbers for San Diego county

Perhaps the income numbers above aren’t so bad if your rent or mortgage is also paid by the military

~

As far as the Marines supporting the local economy – talk to some business owners and/or landlords in Oceanside about their economy when the Marines are deployed

[4plexowner]

E-1 (buck private) in Marines makes $1245.90 per month

E-5 (Sargent) with 6 years in makes $2405.10 per month

E-6 (staff sargent) with 12 years – $3105.00 per month

O-1 (starting officer grade) – $2555.70 per month

O-3 (captain) with 4 years in $4545.60 per month

http://www.defenselink.mil/militarypay/pay/bp/paytables/2008%20Basic%20Pay%20Table%20_capped.pdf

If the Marine is living off base they get a food allowance – $202.76/month for officers and $294.43 for enlisted

The housing allowance varies by region and I didn’t find numbers for San Diego county

Perhaps the income numbers above aren’t so bad if your rent or mortgage is also paid by the military

~

As far as the Marines supporting the local economy – talk to some business owners and/or landlords in Oceanside about their economy when the Marines are deployed

[4plexowner]

E-1 (buck private) in Marines makes $1245.90 per month

E-5 (Sargent) with 6 years in makes $2405.10 per month

E-6 (staff sargent) with 12 years – $3105.00 per month

O-1 (starting officer grade) – $2555.70 per month

O-3 (captain) with 4 years in $4545.60 per month

http://www.defenselink.mil/militarypay/pay/bp/paytables/2008%20Basic%20Pay%20Table%20_capped.pdf

If the Marine is living off base they get a food allowance – $202.76/month for officers and $294.43 for enlisted

The housing allowance varies by region and I didn’t find numbers for San Diego county

Perhaps the income numbers above aren’t so bad if your rent or mortgage is also paid by the military

~

As far as the Marines supporting the local economy – talk to some business owners and/or landlords in Oceanside about their economy when the Marines are deployed

[paramount]

Yes, it will go down – it already has and will continue, but $75/sf for the most premium section of Temecula; I just don’t think it will happen.

There is local economic support for Temecula – The Marines just for starters…

[paramount]

Yes, it will go down – it already has and will continue, but $75/sf for the most premium section of Temecula; I just don’t think it will happen.

There is local economic support for Temecula – The Marines just for starters…

[paramount]

Yes, it will go down – it already has and will continue, but $75/sf for the most premium section of Temecula; I just don’t think it will happen.

There is local economic support for Temecula – The Marines just for starters…

[paramount]

Yes, it will go down – it already has and will continue, but $75/sf for the most premium section of Temecula; I just don’t think it will happen.

There is local economic support for Temecula – The Marines just for starters…

[Deal Hunter]

Unless Temecula has some support for the local economy or some reason for population migration, I’d err on the side of it turning down for a while to come. If you are looking for $75-$100 a SF and a good rental market, look in Las Vegas.

http://www.RealEstateDealHunters.com

No kidding.

[Deal Hunter]

Unless Temecula has some support for the local economy or some reason for population migration, I’d err on the side of it turning down for a while to come. If you are looking for $75-$100 a SF and a good rental market, look in Las Vegas.

http://www.RealEstateDealHunters.com

No kidding.

[Deal Hunter]

Unless Temecula has some support for the local economy or some reason for population migration, I’d err on the side of it turning down for a while to come. If you are looking for $75-$100 a SF and a good rental market, look in Las Vegas.

http://www.RealEstateDealHunters.com

No kidding.

[Deal Hunter]

Unless Temecula has some support for the local economy or some reason for population migration, I’d err on the side of it turning down for a while to come. If you are looking for $75-$100 a SF and a good rental market, look in Las Vegas.

http://www.RealEstateDealHunters.com

No kidding.

[paramount]

You can keep looking for $75/sf – and it will happen (if not already) in some parts of Temecula – but not Morgan Hill. That would be like prices returning to mid 1990’s levels or even earlier.

Of course you like his posts, b/c you probably want to buy a house in MH for $75/sf. Keep dreaming – if it gets that cheap we’ll all be in trouble.

I own a 1500 sq. ft. house in Paloma Del Sol – according to the $75/sq. ft. theory for Morgan Hill, that would mean my house would probably be worth around 100k.

I do see my house dropping to around 180-200k or so, but not 100k – if that happens unemployment will be through the roof and this country will truly be in trouble. That won’t be good for anybody except the Richistans.

BTW, if I had to hazard a guess, I would say most of the crime in Temecula is committed by (or related to) renters.

In fact, if my memory serves me correctly most if not all of the murders committed last year were by renters.

[paramount]

You can keep looking for $75/sf – and it will happen (if not already) in some parts of Temecula – but not Morgan Hill. That would be like prices returning to mid 1990’s levels or even earlier.

Of course you like his posts, b/c you probably want to buy a house in MH for $75/sf. Keep dreaming – if it gets that cheap we’ll all be in trouble.

I own a 1500 sq. ft. house in Paloma Del Sol – according to the $75/sq. ft. theory for Morgan Hill, that would mean my house would probably be worth around 100k.

I do see my house dropping to around 180-200k or so, but not 100k – if that happens unemployment will be through the roof and this country will truly be in trouble. That won’t be good for anybody except the Richistans.

BTW, if I had to hazard a guess, I would say most of the crime in Temecula is committed by (or related to) renters.

In fact, if my memory serves me correctly most if not all of the murders committed last year were by renters.

[paramount]

You can keep looking for $75/sf – and it will happen (if not already) in some parts of Temecula – but not Morgan Hill. That would be like prices returning to mid 1990’s levels or even earlier.

Of course you like his posts, b/c you probably want to buy a house in MH for $75/sf. Keep dreaming – if it gets that cheap we’ll all be in trouble.

I own a 1500 sq. ft. house in Paloma Del Sol – according to the $75/sq. ft. theory for Morgan Hill, that would mean my house would probably be worth around 100k.

I do see my house dropping to around 180-200k or so, but not 100k – if that happens unemployment will be through the roof and this country will truly be in trouble. That won’t be good for anybody except the Richistans.

BTW, if I had to hazard a guess, I would say most of the crime in Temecula is committed by (or related to) renters.

In fact, if my memory serves me correctly most if not all of the murders committed last year were by renters.

[paramount]

You can keep looking for $75/sf – and it will happen (if not already) in some parts of Temecula – but not Morgan Hill. That would be like prices returning to mid 1990’s levels or even earlier.

Of course you like his posts, b/c you probably want to buy a house in MH for $75/sf. Keep dreaming – if it gets that cheap we’ll all be in trouble.

I own a 1500 sq. ft. house in Paloma Del Sol – according to the $75/sq. ft. theory for Morgan Hill, that would mean my house would probably be worth around 100k.

I do see my house dropping to around 180-200k or so, but not 100k – if that happens unemployment will be through the roof and this country will truly be in trouble. That won’t be good for anybody except the Richistans.

BTW, if I had to hazard a guess, I would say most of the crime in Temecula is committed by (or related to) renters.

In fact, if my memory serves me correctly most if not all of the murders committed last year were by renters.

[cashflow]

Bearvine I do appreciate your posts and it shows that you have great knowledge of this area. My husband and I were just discussing your $75/sqft…hey it could happen, and we’ll keep this as a price to look for.

Thanks to all here as I’m always looking on this board to keep me sane! You all bring me to my senses on this market and where we are headed!

Now all the talk about crime in Temecula is a surprise to me…I really can’t think that this area will all of a sudden be crimeridden. It’s mostly hard working families, so I just don’t see crime being a significant issue around there….
We are in RB right now and there’s been lots of talk about hate crimes rising and issues at RB high school around this…but like someone said…there’s crazy’s everywhere.

[cashflow]

Bearvine I do appreciate your posts and it shows that you have great knowledge of this area. My husband and I were just discussing your $75/sqft…hey it could happen, and we’ll keep this as a price to look for.

Thanks to all here as I’m always looking on this board to keep me sane! You all bring me to my senses on this market and where we are headed!

Now all the talk about crime in Temecula is a surprise to me…I really can’t think that this area will all of a sudden be crimeridden. It’s mostly hard working families, so I just don’t see crime being a significant issue around there….
We are in RB right now and there’s been lots of talk about hate crimes rising and issues at RB high school around this…but like someone said…there’s crazy’s everywhere.

[cashflow]

Bearvine I do appreciate your posts and it shows that you have great knowledge of this area. My husband and I were just discussing your $75/sqft…hey it could happen, and we’ll keep this as a price to look for.

Thanks to all here as I’m always looking on this board to keep me sane! You all bring me to my senses on this market and where we are headed!

Now all the talk about crime in Temecula is a surprise to me…I really can’t think that this area will all of a sudden be crimeridden. It’s mostly hard working families, so I just don’t see crime being a significant issue around there….
We are in RB right now and there’s been lots of talk about hate crimes rising and issues at RB high school around this…but like someone said…there’s crazy’s everywhere.

[cashflow]

Bearvine I do appreciate your posts and it shows that you have great knowledge of this area. My husband and I were just discussing your $75/sqft…hey it could happen, and we’ll keep this as a price to look for.

Thanks to all here as I’m always looking on this board to keep me sane! You all bring me to my senses on this market and where we are headed!

Now all the talk about crime in Temecula is a surprise to me…I really can’t think that this area will all of a sudden be crimeridden. It’s mostly hard working families, so I just don’t see crime being a significant issue around there….
We are in RB right now and there’s been lots of talk about hate crimes rising and issues at RB high school around this…but like someone said…there’s crazy’s everywhere.

[bearvine]

Disagree if you’d like…

But telling me to put the crack pipe down, those are fighting words…I have displayed in previous threads knowledge of Temecula beyond most on this board, and it comes from having lived there, invested there, been involved in the political and business communities, and a strong background in investment and real estate matters.

We all do what we have to do to survive in this world, and many of us on these boards are doing our best to warn others without the same knowledge to be wary and prepare for a deep recession.

What’s the worse that can happen in being patient? Interest rates will not go up for some time, and prices certainly aren’t going up. Prices can only go down or stay stagnant.

In regards to all the bottom feeders waiting to snap up property, that’s not going to happen either. Last week, 40 homes went to auction in Orange County at the Santa Ana courthouse. 2 sold. 2. I had a colleague with $1.2m ready to buy a home in Irvine, and the bank wouldnt take less than $1.5. Down from a sales price of $2.5 in 2007, and $2m this year. Cheap stuff didnt sell either.

Go to Redfin, type in 92592, and see how many green for sale signs come up. You will have to narrow your search to the area over Morgan Hill, because there are too many homes to map. Get over Morgan and Redhawk, and boom, 443 houses for sale. Simple supply and demand.

For a human side, look at http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1452962 this guy 2 years ago had the nicest looking tract home in Morgan. Talked about it being worth a million bucks. Had the giant K Hov Plan 4 with a 4 car garage that people fought over during the phase release. Next thing you know it, gotta move, brown lawn, bank cant get $117 sq ft for it.

Then look at all the Greystone/Redhawk homes on Manchester right below Morgan that the banks cant find buyers at in the $100’s sq ft for.

Morgan Hill may be one of the nicest areas in Temecula, but it will get dragged down by the rest of the area, and with help from homes being short sold within the community.

Then add the guys who will “walk away” like those on the board who are talking about doing such.

Personally, I don’t want to see a recession. I make more money when the economy is moving. But a realist I am.

For those of you trying to figure out what to do, just look at the facts.

There’s no changing the myopic views of some of those out there whether they be bears or bulls.

[bearvine]

Disagree if you’d like…

But telling me to put the crack pipe down, those are fighting words…I have displayed in previous threads knowledge of Temecula beyond most on this board, and it comes from having lived there, invested there, been involved in the political and business communities, and a strong background in investment and real estate matters.

We all do what we have to do to survive in this world, and many of us on these boards are doing our best to warn others without the same knowledge to be wary and prepare for a deep recession.

What’s the worse that can happen in being patient? Interest rates will not go up for some time, and prices certainly aren’t going up. Prices can only go down or stay stagnant.

In regards to all the bottom feeders waiting to snap up property, that’s not going to happen either. Last week, 40 homes went to auction in Orange County at the Santa Ana courthouse. 2 sold. 2. I had a colleague with $1.2m ready to buy a home in Irvine, and the bank wouldnt take less than $1.5. Down from a sales price of $2.5 in 2007, and $2m this year. Cheap stuff didnt sell either.

Go to Redfin, type in 92592, and see how many green for sale signs come up. You will have to narrow your search to the area over Morgan Hill, because there are too many homes to map. Get over Morgan and Redhawk, and boom, 443 houses for sale. Simple supply and demand.

For a human side, look at http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1452962 this guy 2 years ago had the nicest looking tract home in Morgan. Talked about it being worth a million bucks. Had the giant K Hov Plan 4 with a 4 car garage that people fought over during the phase release. Next thing you know it, gotta move, brown lawn, bank cant get $117 sq ft for it.

Then look at all the Greystone/Redhawk homes on Manchester right below Morgan that the banks cant find buyers at in the $100’s sq ft for.

Morgan Hill may be one of the nicest areas in Temecula, but it will get dragged down by the rest of the area, and with help from homes being short sold within the community.

Then add the guys who will “walk away” like those on the board who are talking about doing such.

Personally, I don’t want to see a recession. I make more money when the economy is moving. But a realist I am.

For those of you trying to figure out what to do, just look at the facts.

There’s no changing the myopic views of some of those out there whether they be bears or bulls.

[bearvine]

Disagree if you’d like…

But telling me to put the crack pipe down, those are fighting words…I have displayed in previous threads knowledge of Temecula beyond most on this board, and it comes from having lived there, invested there, been involved in the political and business communities, and a strong background in investment and real estate matters.

We all do what we have to do to survive in this world, and many of us on these boards are doing our best to warn others without the same knowledge to be wary and prepare for a deep recession.

What’s the worse that can happen in being patient? Interest rates will not go up for some time, and prices certainly aren’t going up. Prices can only go down or stay stagnant.

In regards to all the bottom feeders waiting to snap up property, that’s not going to happen either. Last week, 40 homes went to auction in Orange County at the Santa Ana courthouse. 2 sold. 2. I had a colleague with $1.2m ready to buy a home in Irvine, and the bank wouldnt take less than $1.5. Down from a sales price of $2.5 in 2007, and $2m this year. Cheap stuff didnt sell either.

Go to Redfin, type in 92592, and see how many green for sale signs come up. You will have to narrow your search to the area over Morgan Hill, because there are too many homes to map. Get over Morgan and Redhawk, and boom, 443 houses for sale. Simple supply and demand.

For a human side, look at http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1452962 this guy 2 years ago had the nicest looking tract home in Morgan. Talked about it being worth a million bucks. Had the giant K Hov Plan 4 with a 4 car garage that people fought over during the phase release. Next thing you know it, gotta move, brown lawn, bank cant get $117 sq ft for it.

Then look at all the Greystone/Redhawk homes on Manchester right below Morgan that the banks cant find buyers at in the $100’s sq ft for.

Morgan Hill may be one of the nicest areas in Temecula, but it will get dragged down by the rest of the area, and with help from homes being short sold within the community.

Then add the guys who will “walk away” like those on the board who are talking about doing such.

Personally, I don’t want to see a recession. I make more money when the economy is moving. But a realist I am.

For those of you trying to figure out what to do, just look at the facts.

There’s no changing the myopic views of some of those out there whether they be bears or bulls.

[bearvine]

Disagree if you’d like…

But telling me to put the crack pipe down, those are fighting words…I have displayed in previous threads knowledge of Temecula beyond most on this board, and it comes from having lived there, invested there, been involved in the political and business communities, and a strong background in investment and real estate matters.

We all do what we have to do to survive in this world, and many of us on these boards are doing our best to warn others without the same knowledge to be wary and prepare for a deep recession.

What’s the worse that can happen in being patient? Interest rates will not go up for some time, and prices certainly aren’t going up. Prices can only go down or stay stagnant.

In regards to all the bottom feeders waiting to snap up property, that’s not going to happen either. Last week, 40 homes went to auction in Orange County at the Santa Ana courthouse. 2 sold. 2. I had a colleague with $1.2m ready to buy a home in Irvine, and the bank wouldnt take less than $1.5. Down from a sales price of $2.5 in 2007, and $2m this year. Cheap stuff didnt sell either.

Go to Redfin, type in 92592, and see how many green for sale signs come up. You will have to narrow your search to the area over Morgan Hill, because there are too many homes to map. Get over Morgan and Redhawk, and boom, 443 houses for sale. Simple supply and demand.

For a human side, look at http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1452962 this guy 2 years ago had the nicest looking tract home in Morgan. Talked about it being worth a million bucks. Had the giant K Hov Plan 4 with a 4 car garage that people fought over during the phase release. Next thing you know it, gotta move, brown lawn, bank cant get $117 sq ft for it.

Then look at all the Greystone/Redhawk homes on Manchester right below Morgan that the banks cant find buyers at in the $100’s sq ft for.

Morgan Hill may be one of the nicest areas in Temecula, but it will get dragged down by the rest of the area, and with help from homes being short sold within the community.

Then add the guys who will “walk away” like those on the board who are talking about doing such.

Personally, I don’t want to see a recession. I make more money when the economy is moving. But a realist I am.

For those of you trying to figure out what to do, just look at the facts.

There’s no changing the myopic views of some of those out there whether they be bears or bulls.

[paramount]

I still say $75/sf at Morgan Hill will not happen – unless we have a very deep recession.

Not all areas of Temecula and Murrieta are created equal.

Morgan Hill is a desirable place to live IMO, and we will soon be getting a regional hospital.

The market will probably over-correct, but I don’t think to that extent ($75/sf).

That would mean some houses in Morgan Hill will start at: 180k. Not going to happen, put the crack pipe down.

[paramount]

I still say $75/sf at Morgan Hill will not happen – unless we have a very deep recession.

Not all areas of Temecula and Murrieta are created equal.

Morgan Hill is a desirable place to live IMO, and we will soon be getting a regional hospital.

The market will probably over-correct, but I don’t think to that extent ($75/sf).

That would mean some houses in Morgan Hill will start at: 180k. Not going to happen, put the crack pipe down.

[paramount]

I still say $75/sf at Morgan Hill will not happen – unless we have a very deep recession.

Not all areas of Temecula and Murrieta are created equal.

Morgan Hill is a desirable place to live IMO, and we will soon be getting a regional hospital.

The market will probably over-correct, but I don’t think to that extent ($75/sf).

That would mean some houses in Morgan Hill will start at: 180k. Not going to happen, put the crack pipe down.

[paramount]

I still say $75/sf at Morgan Hill will not happen – unless we have a very deep recession.

Not all areas of Temecula and Murrieta are created equal.

Morgan Hill is a desirable place to live IMO, and we will soon be getting a regional hospital.

The market will probably over-correct, but I don’t think to that extent ($75/sf).

That would mean some houses in Morgan Hill will start at: 180k. Not going to happen, put the crack pipe down.

[vizcaya]

patientlywaiting wrote:
It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore. —

I am not in that camp that believes prices will not fall. I bought late last year. I purchased at 30% below peak, and put in a low ball offer. 6 months later, I am seeing homes being sold at what I paid. Do I think prices will fall furthur? Yep, and I believe it will come down another 20% before It levels off.

I am in Riverside(92508), and homes out here have been slower to fall than in Temecula and Murrietta. I am seeing prices of bank owned homes down to about $135 sq ft. I would say about 90 percent off all the homes on the market in my zip, are Bank owned or short sales.

[vizcaya]

patientlywaiting wrote:
It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore. —

I am not in that camp that believes prices will not fall. I bought late last year. I purchased at 30% below peak, and put in a low ball offer. 6 months later, I am seeing homes being sold at what I paid. Do I think prices will fall furthur? Yep, and I believe it will come down another 20% before It levels off.

I am in Riverside(92508), and homes out here have been slower to fall than in Temecula and Murrietta. I am seeing prices of bank owned homes down to about $135 sq ft. I would say about 90 percent off all the homes on the market in my zip, are Bank owned or short sales.

[vizcaya]

patientlywaiting wrote:
It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore. —

I am not in that camp that believes prices will not fall. I bought late last year. I purchased at 30% below peak, and put in a low ball offer. 6 months later, I am seeing homes being sold at what I paid. Do I think prices will fall furthur? Yep, and I believe it will come down another 20% before It levels off.

I am in Riverside(92508), and homes out here have been slower to fall than in Temecula and Murrietta. I am seeing prices of bank owned homes down to about $135 sq ft. I would say about 90 percent off all the homes on the market in my zip, are Bank owned or short sales.

[vizcaya]

patientlywaiting wrote:
It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore. —

I am not in that camp that believes prices will not fall. I bought late last year. I purchased at 30% below peak, and put in a low ball offer. 6 months later, I am seeing homes being sold at what I paid. Do I think prices will fall furthur? Yep, and I believe it will come down another 20% before It levels off.

I am in Riverside(92508), and homes out here have been slower to fall than in Temecula and Murrietta. I am seeing prices of bank owned homes down to about $135 sq ft. I would say about 90 percent off all the homes on the market in my zip, are Bank owned or short sales.

[patientlywaiting]

Nor-La-SD-Guy wrote:

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

*

It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore.

Considering Mello Roos and HOAs, Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.

[patientlywaiting]

Nor-La-SD-Guy wrote:

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

*

It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore.

Considering Mello Roos and HOAs, Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.

[patientlywaiting]

Nor-La-SD-Guy wrote:

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

*

It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore.

Considering Mello Roos and HOAs, Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.

[patientlywaiting]

Nor-La-SD-Guy wrote:

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

*

It’s fascinating to watch human psychology. Once people buy they think that prices can’t drop much anymore.

Considering Mello Roos and HOAs, Temecula’s median should be right around $200k.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I am in the camp that thinks when it becomes cash flow neutral for investors to put down 20% and a 30 year mortgage, That will be about the bottom for any given area, given that I think Temecula will bottom out sooner than most areas. But at the same time it’s not going to rocket up over night either (unless something unforeseen happens like hyper inflation or something).

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I am in the camp that thinks when it becomes cash flow neutral for investors to put down 20% and a 30 year mortgage, That will be about the bottom for any given area, given that I think Temecula will bottom out sooner than most areas. But at the same time it’s not going to rocket up over night either (unless something unforeseen happens like hyper inflation or something).

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I am in the camp that thinks when it becomes cash flow neutral for investors to put down 20% and a 30 year mortgage, That will be about the bottom for any given area, given that I think Temecula will bottom out sooner than most areas. But at the same time it’s not going to rocket up over night either (unless something unforeseen happens like hyper inflation or something).

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

I am in the camp that thinks when it becomes cash flow neutral for investors to put down 20% and a 30 year mortgage, That will be about the bottom for any given area, given that I think Temecula will bottom out sooner than most areas. But at the same time it’s not going to rocket up over night either (unless something unforeseen happens like hyper inflation or something).

Me I pull the trigger already (got a new place for 108 SQF all the upgrades you could want with a nice view and the back yard is the national forest). .

Maybe it will go lower, who knows but I am happy with what I got and am not going anywhere for maybe 15 or so years.

[svelte]

We did the wine tasting loop in the Temecula wine country this weekend. I couldn’t believe the number of for sale signs on glenoakes and de portola roads.

It was over the top.

[svelte]

We did the wine tasting loop in the Temecula wine country this weekend. I couldn’t believe the number of for sale signs on glenoakes and de portola roads.

It was over the top.

[svelte]

We did the wine tasting loop in the Temecula wine country this weekend. I couldn’t believe the number of for sale signs on glenoakes and de portola roads.

It was over the top.

[svelte]

We did the wine tasting loop in the Temecula wine country this weekend. I couldn’t believe the number of for sale signs on glenoakes and de portola roads.

It was over the top.

[Author]

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