http://www.ofheo.gov/

[santeeman]

Okay it’s December 1st and OFHEO is out, any thoughts……

[santeeman]

Where is Powayseller, I thought she was looking forward to this comming out…….

[powayseller]

OHFEO index is -.21% from last quarter, the first quarterly decline since Q2 1996. Since it measures the change in same-house sales and refinances, why didn’t it start declining last year, or at least show a bigger decline? One explanation could be the effect of refinancing, where appraisals come in higher than for purchases. Maybe bugs or sdrealtor have an explanation.

Housing prices have been going down since last summer or before, and none of the quantifiers shows it (median, OHFEO, Case-Shiller).

[sdduuuude]

I find that the people on this site have a fairly strong north county bent. Also, it seems north county is leading the charge down while prices elsewhere are actually quite stable.

Perhaps this is why you are expecting to see more “droppage” than the indices are indicating.

[powayseller]

Where are prices stable? This Dataquick U-T zip code chart shows price drops in all of San Diego County. Bonita -16.5%, La Mesa -10%, Clairmont -12.7%. But I don’t put much stock in the median, because look at Mira Mesa, which is supposedly down only 2% from last year. Mira Mesa is almost dead, according to a realtor I spoke with today. Mira Mesa price drops are more like 20%, according to him. It was a first time buyer’s paradise, and the first time buyer is practically a relic. Condos and townhouses are also harder to sell.

So while each individual house is worth 2% – 20% less than the peak, the indexes and median do not reflect that at all. For that reason, Bob Casagrand did not publish the median in his last month’s housing report. He decided it is a useless number. What he puts the most emphasis on is the months supply. Most of all, each home’s value is unique for that zip code, neighborhood, and even street.

Thanks to Mr. Brightside, we know that downtown condos are dropping in price too.

ocrenter is showing us foreclosure flips gone wrong all over the Southland.

So the price drops are going on all over, and I’m puzzled why the OFHEO and Case-Shiller indexes are not reflecting that. Does anybody know why? That could be a thread of its own.

[sdduuuude]

Well, your chart shows in central San Diego roughly half of the zip codes are up and half are down.

In north county coastal, 9 are down and 3 are up.

[sdrealtor]

duude,
When you check the chart make sure to pay attention to volume. Most ZIP codes with sales volume of at least 15 and more realistically 20 sales are down countywide. Several of the high volume ZIPs showing gains on the chart are places I know are getting slaughtered such as 92078 San Marcos. The low volume sales are more volatile and less valuable as a predictor. I don’t believe they are an accurate representation of anything. Also the relatively high volume ZIP’s that are up tend to be in garden spots of the county like Encanto and El Cajon.

[Author]

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