How low will it go? Quick survey

[PerryChase]

I say 2000/2001 nominal prices. That’s about 50% off peak, I think.

When bugs talks, I listen.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I will stick with the same response I had to this question about a year ago. Based on the median price for Central San Diego I am guessing 19-26% nominal price decline over a 5-year period. (At 3% inflation for 5 years thats a total of 34-41% real price decline).
Other areas : East County, South Bay, Temecula/, Riverside County will fare worse.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I will stick with the same response I had to this question about a year ago. Based on the median price for Central San Diego I am guessing 19-26% nominal price decline over a 5-year period. (At 3% inflation for 5 years thats a total of 34-41% real price decline).
Other areas : East County, South Bay, Temecula/, Riverside County will fare worse.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I will stick with the same response I had to this question about a year ago. Based on the median price for Central San Diego I am guessing 19-26% nominal price decline over a 5-year period. (At 3% inflation for 5 years thats a total of 34-41% real price decline).
Other areas : East County, South Bay, Temecula/, Riverside County will fare worse.

[PerryChase]

I still don’t see how certain areas would be immune (or drop less percentage wise) to the downturn.

I looked at histories of individual houses and Carlsbad dropped just as much as Tierrasanta or Mira Mesa during the 1990s. Areas that appreciated and held up better were central areas such as Hillcrest, Mission Hills and Bay Park.

The Del Mar (the real one of popuplation of just 5000) even dropped. Houses weren’t moving there and people had more staying power so there were few sales.

[PerryChase]

I still don’t see how certain areas would be immune (or drop less percentage wise) to the downturn.

I looked at histories of individual houses and Carlsbad dropped just as much as Tierrasanta or Mira Mesa during the 1990s. Areas that appreciated and held up better were central areas such as Hillcrest, Mission Hills and Bay Park.

The Del Mar (the real one of popuplation of just 5000) even dropped. Houses weren’t moving there and people had more staying power so there were few sales.

[PerryChase]

I still don’t see how certain areas would be immune (or drop less percentage wise) to the downturn.

I looked at histories of individual houses and Carlsbad dropped just as much as Tierrasanta or Mira Mesa during the 1990s. Areas that appreciated and held up better were central areas such as Hillcrest, Mission Hills and Bay Park.

The Del Mar (the real one of popuplation of just 5000) even dropped. Houses weren’t moving there and people had more staying power so there were few sales.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Perry, I don’t understand.

Sentence 1: “I still don’t see how certain areas would be immune (or drop less percentage wise) to the downturn.”

Sentence 3: “Areas that appreciated and held up better were central areas such as Hillcrest, Mission Hills and Bay Park.”

So, these central areas held up better in the 1990’s. Right ?

It could happen again, right ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Perry, I don’t understand.

Sentence 1: “I still don’t see how certain areas would be immune (or drop less percentage wise) to the downturn.”

Sentence 3: “Areas that appreciated and held up better were central areas such as Hillcrest, Mission Hills and Bay Park.”

So, these central areas held up better in the 1990’s. Right ?

It could happen again, right ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Perry, I don’t understand.

Sentence 1: “I still don’t see how certain areas would be immune (or drop less percentage wise) to the downturn.”

Sentence 3: “Areas that appreciated and held up better were central areas such as Hillcrest, Mission Hills and Bay Park.”

So, these central areas held up better in the 1990’s. Right ?

It could happen again, right ?

[sdnativeson]

I think last time around (90’s) the high end markets got clobbered the hardest (La Jolla, Del Mar, Fairbanks, Rancho Santa Fe etc.)I saw prices drop UP to 50% or close to that number in those areas. The “middle”(upper and lower) class neighborhoods held their value “better” Clairemont, La Mesa, University City (homes not condos), the areas around SDSU, etc. depending upon individual circumstances drops in the 20 – 30 % range. That is my recollection at least.

This time I think the high end will hold out somewhat better, I think the pain will be felt predominantly in the “middle” class neighborhoods I mention above which are now priced in the (mostly 600-800k) range for anything somewhat decent. IMHO, these areas have the potential of up to eventually 50% or more drop in value. I think (hope)2010 at best, as much as I’d like to see it happen sooner.

[sdnativeson]

I think last time around (90’s) the high end markets got clobbered the hardest (La Jolla, Del Mar, Fairbanks, Rancho Santa Fe etc.)I saw prices drop UP to 50% or close to that number in those areas. The “middle”(upper and lower) class neighborhoods held their value “better” Clairemont, La Mesa, University City (homes not condos), the areas around SDSU, etc. depending upon individual circumstances drops in the 20 – 30 % range. That is my recollection at least.

This time I think the high end will hold out somewhat better, I think the pain will be felt predominantly in the “middle” class neighborhoods I mention above which are now priced in the (mostly 600-800k) range for anything somewhat decent. IMHO, these areas have the potential of up to eventually 50% or more drop in value. I think (hope)2010 at best, as much as I’d like to see it happen sooner.

[sdnativeson]

I think last time around (90’s) the high end markets got clobbered the hardest (La Jolla, Del Mar, Fairbanks, Rancho Santa Fe etc.)I saw prices drop UP to 50% or close to that number in those areas. The “middle”(upper and lower) class neighborhoods held their value “better” Clairemont, La Mesa, University City (homes not condos), the areas around SDSU, etc. depending upon individual circumstances drops in the 20 – 30 % range. That is my recollection at least.

This time I think the high end will hold out somewhat better, I think the pain will be felt predominantly in the “middle” class neighborhoods I mention above which are now priced in the (mostly 600-800k) range for anything somewhat decent. IMHO, these areas have the potential of up to eventually 50% or more drop in value. I think (hope)2010 at best, as much as I’d like to see it happen sooner.

[SD Realtor]

I believe the bottom to be in the 2010-2011 timeframe and I think the damage will vary by housing type and location.

Perry I am not declaring immunity for any given zip code. I am just saying the damage will vary. I base this statement on the following:

1 – demand for that particular zip code or map code

2 – quality of the buyer. I think different areas attract different buyers with respect to demograhics, financial assets and employment types.

3 – distress in that area. I do not believe the foreclosure rate will be the same in every area. I think it will vary and in some cases that variance will be substantial.

4 – equity/mindset of the sellers. I believe that the profiles of sellers of different regions will alter each one. Sellers with high equity stakes AND emotional attachments will more likely leg it out and pass the home on to the kids, rent it out, or die in it.

Perry, don’t get me wrong. Again I am not declaring immunity for anyone however I do sincerely believe there will be different rates of decline and different bottoms. Areas that had high speculation ratios, risky financing vehicles, or homeowners that stretched and are now realizing it is not happening will indeed get hit harder then peer areas that do not. It doesn’t mean there will not be foreclosures in Del Mar, or La Jolla or RSF but I don’t believe there will be enough to cause major distress in these areas when compared to say downtown or Eastlake. Could these premium places see 20-30% hits? Perhaps they could indeed. Will those hits match counterparts in outlying areas or heavier run up areas or areas with widespread foreclosures? In my opinion no.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I believe the bottom to be in the 2010-2011 timeframe and I think the damage will vary by housing type and location.

Perry I am not declaring immunity for any given zip code. I am just saying the damage will vary. I base this statement on the following:

1 – demand for that particular zip code or map code

2 – quality of the buyer. I think different areas attract different buyers with respect to demograhics, financial assets and employment types.

3 – distress in that area. I do not believe the foreclosure rate will be the same in every area. I think it will vary and in some cases that variance will be substantial.

4 – equity/mindset of the sellers. I believe that the profiles of sellers of different regions will alter each one. Sellers with high equity stakes AND emotional attachments will more likely leg it out and pass the home on to the kids, rent it out, or die in it.

Perry, don’t get me wrong. Again I am not declaring immunity for anyone however I do sincerely believe there will be different rates of decline and different bottoms. Areas that had high speculation ratios, risky financing vehicles, or homeowners that stretched and are now realizing it is not happening will indeed get hit harder then peer areas that do not. It doesn’t mean there will not be foreclosures in Del Mar, or La Jolla or RSF but I don’t believe there will be enough to cause major distress in these areas when compared to say downtown or Eastlake. Could these premium places see 20-30% hits? Perhaps they could indeed. Will those hits match counterparts in outlying areas or heavier run up areas or areas with widespread foreclosures? In my opinion no.

SD Realtor

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