How fast will the bounce back be?

[patientlywaiting]

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

I'm expecting spring 2008 to be a big bust.  That will cement the notion that real estate is in for a protracted downturn.  Even the die-hard flippers will give up by Fall 2008.  

We have 1 more year to find out.       

 

[NotCranky]

Possible scenario,
It is possible that there will be some really good deals next year. I believe more strongly that sometime in 2009 this will be true. It won’t be the kind of stuff most people want and it will take time to sell or go at auctions. Investors will be a good portion of the buyers involved and they will be waiting for, or forcing the market to deliver homes that “Pencil out”.

Other housing deals will continue looking pretty ho hum ,especially relative to job prospects and interest rates,and other domestic finance issues, so a “bounce” back will be precluded from occurring, even though some will be “getting ahead with RE again”.Some people will be buying and only going modestly under water from their entry point. No big deal for most of them.

[NotCranky]

Possible scenario,
It is possible that there will be some really good deals next year. I believe more strongly that sometime in 2009 this will be true. It won’t be the kind of stuff most people want and it will take time to sell or go at auctions. Investors will be a good portion of the buyers involved and they will be waiting for, or forcing the market to deliver homes that “Pencil out”.

Other housing deals will continue looking pretty ho hum ,especially relative to job prospects and interest rates,and other domestic finance issues, so a “bounce” back will be precluded from occurring, even though some will be “getting ahead with RE again”.Some people will be buying and only going modestly under water from their entry point. No big deal for most of them.

[NotCranky]

Possible scenario,
It is possible that there will be some really good deals next year. I believe more strongly that sometime in 2009 this will be true. It won’t be the kind of stuff most people want and it will take time to sell or go at auctions. Investors will be a good portion of the buyers involved and they will be waiting for, or forcing the market to deliver homes that “Pencil out”.

Other housing deals will continue looking pretty ho hum ,especially relative to job prospects and interest rates,and other domestic finance issues, so a “bounce” back will be precluded from occurring, even though some will be “getting ahead with RE again”.Some people will be buying and only going modestly under water from their entry point. No big deal for most of them.

[NotCranky]

Possible scenario,
It is possible that there will be some really good deals next year. I believe more strongly that sometime in 2009 this will be true. It won’t be the kind of stuff most people want and it will take time to sell or go at auctions. Investors will be a good portion of the buyers involved and they will be waiting for, or forcing the market to deliver homes that “Pencil out”.

Other housing deals will continue looking pretty ho hum ,especially relative to job prospects and interest rates,and other domestic finance issues, so a “bounce” back will be precluded from occurring, even though some will be “getting ahead with RE again”.Some people will be buying and only going modestly under water from their entry point. No big deal for most of them.

[NotCranky]

Possible scenario,
It is possible that there will be some really good deals next year. I believe more strongly that sometime in 2009 this will be true. It won’t be the kind of stuff most people want and it will take time to sell or go at auctions. Investors will be a good portion of the buyers involved and they will be waiting for, or forcing the market to deliver homes that “Pencil out”.

Other housing deals will continue looking pretty ho hum ,especially relative to job prospects and interest rates,and other domestic finance issues, so a “bounce” back will be precluded from occurring, even though some will be “getting ahead with RE again”.Some people will be buying and only going modestly under water from their entry point. No big deal for most of them.

[gold_dredger_phd]

Find a new way for Americans to get into debt and you can just about write your own ticket. The last thing that banks and credit card companies really want is for people to be truly financially independent. Just think where they would be if everyone paid cash for things?

My proposal is as follows. There is no need of money down on a housing loan, just that the buyer will use one kidney and a portion of his liver in leiu of collateral. Since we’ve seen that the price of a house can fall, the bank or investors need to make up their losses somehow and they will do that by selling a portion of the borrower’s liver or one whole kidney. The more cosigners of the loan, the more organs can be harvested. This will allow healthy people of modest means to live in McMansions or own beachfront property.

This is all to engineer an “ownership society.” : D

[gold_dredger_phd]

Find a new way for Americans to get into debt and you can just about write your own ticket. The last thing that banks and credit card companies really want is for people to be truly financially independent. Just think where they would be if everyone paid cash for things?

My proposal is as follows. There is no need of money down on a housing loan, just that the buyer will use one kidney and a portion of his liver in leiu of collateral. Since we’ve seen that the price of a house can fall, the bank or investors need to make up their losses somehow and they will do that by selling a portion of the borrower’s liver or one whole kidney. The more cosigners of the loan, the more organs can be harvested. This will allow healthy people of modest means to live in McMansions or own beachfront property.

This is all to engineer an “ownership society.” : D

[gold_dredger_phd]

Find a new way for Americans to get into debt and you can just about write your own ticket. The last thing that banks and credit card companies really want is for people to be truly financially independent. Just think where they would be if everyone paid cash for things?

My proposal is as follows. There is no need of money down on a housing loan, just that the buyer will use one kidney and a portion of his liver in leiu of collateral. Since we’ve seen that the price of a house can fall, the bank or investors need to make up their losses somehow and they will do that by selling a portion of the borrower’s liver or one whole kidney. The more cosigners of the loan, the more organs can be harvested. This will allow healthy people of modest means to live in McMansions or own beachfront property.

This is all to engineer an “ownership society.” : D

[gold_dredger_phd]

Find a new way for Americans to get into debt and you can just about write your own ticket. The last thing that banks and credit card companies really want is for people to be truly financially independent. Just think where they would be if everyone paid cash for things?

My proposal is as follows. There is no need of money down on a housing loan, just that the buyer will use one kidney and a portion of his liver in leiu of collateral. Since we’ve seen that the price of a house can fall, the bank or investors need to make up their losses somehow and they will do that by selling a portion of the borrower’s liver or one whole kidney. The more cosigners of the loan, the more organs can be harvested. This will allow healthy people of modest means to live in McMansions or own beachfront property.

This is all to engineer an “ownership society.” : D

[gold_dredger_phd]

Find a new way for Americans to get into debt and you can just about write your own ticket. The last thing that banks and credit card companies really want is for people to be truly financially independent. Just think where they would be if everyone paid cash for things?

My proposal is as follows. There is no need of money down on a housing loan, just that the buyer will use one kidney and a portion of his liver in leiu of collateral. Since we’ve seen that the price of a house can fall, the bank or investors need to make up their losses somehow and they will do that by selling a portion of the borrower’s liver or one whole kidney. The more cosigners of the loan, the more organs can be harvested. This will allow healthy people of modest means to live in McMansions or own beachfront property.

This is all to engineer an “ownership society.” : D

[lonestar2000]

The bubble was due to:

1. Lax lending practices
2. Above normal appreciation
3. Strong economy
4. Low unemployment levels
5. Low inventories

Is it realistic to expect that the same set of circumstances will return when we hit the bottom?

In my opinion the scenario is likely to be:

1. No easy money to be had, 20% down is the norm
2. Appreciation is flat
3. Economy is just digging itself out of a recession
4. Unemployment levels are shaky, construction, real estate, and mortgage workers are just starting to find jobs again
5. Average inventories (at best)

These are not the right set of circumstances for any kind of bounce at all. The market will follow need, rather than greed, and prices will be in line to incomes, long before we see any kind of bubble again.

[lonestar2000]

The bubble was due to:

1. Lax lending practices
2. Above normal appreciation
3. Strong economy
4. Low unemployment levels
5. Low inventories

Is it realistic to expect that the same set of circumstances will return when we hit the bottom?

In my opinion the scenario is likely to be:

1. No easy money to be had, 20% down is the norm
2. Appreciation is flat
3. Economy is just digging itself out of a recession
4. Unemployment levels are shaky, construction, real estate, and mortgage workers are just starting to find jobs again
5. Average inventories (at best)

These are not the right set of circumstances for any kind of bounce at all. The market will follow need, rather than greed, and prices will be in line to incomes, long before we see any kind of bubble again.

[lonestar2000]

The bubble was due to:

1. Lax lending practices
2. Above normal appreciation
3. Strong economy
4. Low unemployment levels
5. Low inventories

Is it realistic to expect that the same set of circumstances will return when we hit the bottom?

In my opinion the scenario is likely to be:

1. No easy money to be had, 20% down is the norm
2. Appreciation is flat
3. Economy is just digging itself out of a recession
4. Unemployment levels are shaky, construction, real estate, and mortgage workers are just starting to find jobs again
5. Average inventories (at best)

These are not the right set of circumstances for any kind of bounce at all. The market will follow need, rather than greed, and prices will be in line to incomes, long before we see any kind of bubble again.

[lonestar2000]

The bubble was due to:

1. Lax lending practices
2. Above normal appreciation
3. Strong economy
4. Low unemployment levels
5. Low inventories

Is it realistic to expect that the same set of circumstances will return when we hit the bottom?

In my opinion the scenario is likely to be:

1. No easy money to be had, 20% down is the norm
2. Appreciation is flat
3. Economy is just digging itself out of a recession
4. Unemployment levels are shaky, construction, real estate, and mortgage workers are just starting to find jobs again
5. Average inventories (at best)

These are not the right set of circumstances for any kind of bounce at all. The market will follow need, rather than greed, and prices will be in line to incomes, long before we see any kind of bubble again.

[Author]

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