Houston— WE have a Huge Problema

[farbet]

More and more bad news on the economic front. Here’s the latest San Diego Economic Forcast and it ain’t pretty. All major economic indicators in SD are taking a hit, and this all point to a recession for the county.

–All six components used in the index were negative last month. Building permits, stock prices, help-wanted advertising and consumer confidence fell. Unemployment filings rose. And the national economic outlook weakened…..

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/09/tail-is-wagging-dog.html

[farbet]

OOps..The above from OC renter’s blog
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/09/tail-is-wagging-dog.html

[Bugs]

I will say one thing about the bloggers vs. the economists controversy. Anonymous bloggers are free to express themselves and offer opinions as they see fit and without fear of repurcussions. The professional economists have their professional reputations to consider, they have their employers’ interests to consider, and they also want to avoid becoming part of the story itself. That is to say, if an economist’s job is to observe and report on the conditions of the market they don’t want their comments to actually affect the conditions they’re supposed to be observing from the outside.

Greenspan took a beating when he repeated Shiller’s “irrational exuberance” comment in a speech. A lot of people felt he stepped outside of his role and actually contributed to the problems he was commenting on.

So I can see why most of these economists would be a little circumspect. It would always be better for them to lag the indicators on the ground because nobody van know when it’s going to reverse course. Better to be wrong by a matter of degree than by direction.

[Anonymous]

Two words to refute that Bugs: Nouriel Roubini

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/216854

He is similarly bearish on other aspects of the economy.

[bubble_contagion]

Greenspan used the phrase “irrational exhuberance” years before Shiller used it in his book.

http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/definition.htm

[bsrsharma]

OOps..The above from OC

No need for oops; this will be the National pattern for at least two more quarters.

[temeculaguy]

In defense of Bugs, Roubini is similar to Shiller, both are professors and free to be bears while Economists working in the private sector are hamstrung by the things Bugs mentioned. In fact Shiller was more free when he wrote Irrational Exuberance, now that he has a publicly traded housing index, he has had to edit himself. Roubini has nothing to hold him back right now, that’s why he is one of the few economists that can speak his mind. Bugs’ post mentioned how greenspan was attacked for quoting Shiller seven years ago, today, Bernanke would be attacked if he quoted Roubini, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t agree with him. Economists working outside of academia have to get paid somehow, so if they don’t write books, they need to be wary of who is paying the bills when giving an opinion in public. The UCLA professors are usually bullish but their department is heavily endowed by the building industry ( I could be wrong but I think Lusk, a builder, is who the school of economics and housing is named after). On a side note, how cool would it be to be in either Roubini or Shiller’s economics class, in my next life I am going to college in the 30’s, even if I had them as professors I’m sure I would have acted just as I did in college, just looking to get the answers for the tests, studying the high points but failing to comprehend what they were actually teaching, thinking only of the next fraternity party and staring at the hot chick in class, damn I wasted my youth.

[farbet]

We are in deep doodoo and it’s getting worst. If the neo cons get us into another war -It will be the mother of all depressions IMHO- Who is gonna pay for this new adventure?
We are overtaxed and Overmaxed.

[bsrsharma]

We are overtaxed and Overmaxed.

Actually, if we were overtaxed (for what we are spending), we would have realized the costs for our actions and things wouldn't be this bad. It is the over borrowing that gave us a false sense of affluence – causing all misdeeds. Now that the rest of the world has found out we are junkies, we have to suffer the cold turkey syndrome.

[farbet]

You took the words out of my mouth-I mean out of my hands. Thanks

[bsrsharma]

another war

I think you can sleep well on that issue. If there is as much as a rumbling of another war, my guess is, you will see treasuries drop like a rock and the term "Full faith & credit" severely challenged. It may seem weird – but the threat of Bankruptcy is a powerful antiwar protest!

[patientlywaiting]

I love the bloggers. What’s different this time is the Internet and the quick dessimination of real estate data.

Remember, Zip Realty and Redfin came around only in 2004/2005. Before that, you had to sign up to be referred to a local Realtor. I’d love to see an alternative to the closed MLS where buyers can transact amount themselves. I’m not saying that Realtors are useless, but the more alternatives, and the more data available to the consumers, the better.

[farbet]

Patientlywaiting :If I had to sell a house now,I would go via FSBO. With all the Internet tools available, using a realtor imho is counterproductive.
How many listings on the MLS? How many open houses being held?Some people can’t contact the suckers after they get the listings

They get the listings and “put it in on auto pilot”.

I remember in ’91 the street corners were full of open house signs on weekends, like a 4th of July.
Lazy bastards just want the 5 or 6 %

[Author]

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