Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[an]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Actually, AN, you’re wrong. You found that chart and you seize on it to prove a point which you rejected earlier.

Case Shiller says the bottom is 2012. Case Shiller adjusts for house quality. If you’d recall, the argument was that the shithole houses would fall first and the more premium houses would fall later.

Hard to believe that some of you want to relitigate something that’s already been settled![/quote]
You’re right. Bottom was Jan 2012. So I bought too early. Suck to be me. You must have bought a few in 2012, right?

[FlyerInHi]

AN. when you bought has nothing to do with the bottom.
You found a good house, I’m happy for you. But it has nothing to do with when the bottom occurred in 2012.

[an]

[quote=FlyerInHi]AN. when you bought has nothing to do with the bottom.
You found a good house, I’m happy for you. But it has nothing to do with when the bottom occurred in 2012.[/quote]
Data… yep, those pesky thing.

[FlyerInHi]

You house make one dot. It does not make the bottom. I’m sure the bottom in La Jolla is later than La Mesa.

[Anonymous]

[quote=FlyerInHi]You house make one dot. It does not make the bottom. I’m sure the bottom in La Jolla is later than La Mesa.[/quote]

WTF you talking about dumbass? You just contradicted yourself and proved our point. The date the data hit a statistical bottom is meaningless.

The bottom for any given home was in a range of a few years between early 2009 and the end of 2011.

The low cost homes that closed in Jan 2012 were likely short sales. They had to be in process for 6 months to a year. The buyer of a home that closed in Jan 2012 likely had their offer accepted by seller in mid 2011 or earlier.

So how many did you buy between early 2009 and late 2011?

[FlyerInHi]

No.

Case Shiller adjusts for house quality.
The lower initial ppsf for the region are a reflection of the lower quality homes that crashed first.

If you don’t accept Case Shiller as the definitive answer, then that’s just you. Take it up with Standard & Poor’s

[an]

[quote=FlyerInHi]No.

Case Shiller adjusts for house quality.
The lower initial ppsf for the region are a reflection of the lower quality homes that crashed first.

If you don’t accept Case Shiller as the definitive answer, then that’s just you. Take it up with Standard & Poor’s[/quote]
Quality of home is not the same as zip code or property type. Do you understand the difference? If not …

[FlyerInHi]

Yes. I do know.
Case Shiller adjusts for quality of houses and areas.
I know for sure the worse zips got affected first and that would reflect in Rich’s ppsf chart.
I don’t think people in the nicer zips would agree that 2009, just 1 year after the recession. was the bottom. In fact, people were arguing that homeowners with financial means would hold on forever.

If you have a problem with Case Shiller, contact S&P and tell them about your house.

With 20/20 hindsight, Dumpster diver resurrected an old thread in a failed attempt to prove someone wrong. He was wrong and shifted to a “moving target” argument. If you want to enable the “alternative facts” argument, have at it. Rational people would take case shiller’s 2012 bottom as the definitive answer.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=dumpster diver][quote=FlyerInHi]You house make one dot. It does not make the bottom. I’m sure the bottom in La Jolla is later than La Mesa.[/quote]

WTF you talking about dumbass? You just contradicted yourself and proved our point. The date the data hit a statistical bottom is meaningless.
[/quote]

I didn’t contradict anything. Case Shiller adjusts for house quality which mean just that. And they came up with 2012 as the bottom. Adjustment for quality is why CS has a different bottom than Rich’s ppsf chart. CS has a formula to track price fluctuations for the same houses.

It is you who contradicted yourself and affirmed CS as the answer.

[an]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
If you have a problem with Case Shiller, contact S&P and tell them about your house. [/quote]
Like I said, only economist and armchair economist care. I don’t care. As long as I catch the bottom of the area and type of house I want, then that’s all that matter. I and everyone else don’t buy a San Diego or US house, we buy a house in a zip code in a certain condition we want. So, the statistical bottom is irrelevant to all except for economist and armchair economist.

However, even w/ Case-Shiller, it’s not 2012: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRSA
[img_assist|nid=26980|title=Case-Shiller|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

[FlyerInHi]

Thanks for looking it you AN. I went by recollection. Now am I am allowed the “moving target” argument?

There another high tier CS. I guess your house is not that.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRHTNSA

[svelte]

[quote=briansd1000000][quote=FlyerInHi]I don’t have time to read old stuff.[/quote]

How did we all miss this gem? You post a few dozen times nearly every single day for over 10 years and you don’t have time to read your old stuff?[/quote]

You just beat me to it. I was about to say the same thing.

[an]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Thanks for looking it you AN. I went by recollection. Now am I am allowed the “moving target” argument?

There another high tier CS. I guess your house is not that.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRHTNSA%5B/quote%5D
Seasonally adjusted
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRHTSA?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=other_formats&utm_campaign=other_format

Even on the high end, if you were renting, it was still better if you bought in early 2009.

[Anonymous]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Yes. I do know.
Case Shiller adjusts for quality of houses and areas.
I know for sure the worse zips got affected first and that would reflect in Rich’s ppsf chart.
I don’t think people in the nicer zips would agree that 2009, just 1 year after the recession. was the bottom. In fact, people were arguing that homeowners with financial means would hold on forever.

If you have a problem with Case Shiller, contact S&P and tell them about your house.

With 20/20 hindsight, Dumpster diver resurrected an old thread in a failed attempt to prove someone wrong. He was wrong and shifted to a “moving target” argument. If you want to enable the “alternative facts” argument, have at it. Rational people would take case shiller’s 2012 bottom as the definitive answer.[/quote]

And you would be completely wrong in your understanding of how Case Shiller works. Whether or not worse Zips got impacted first is irrelevant. The very point for it and how it was designed was to adjust for the changing mix of homes. We have no problem with Case Shiller you just have no idea how it works

You are also wrong about when the lowest prices hit the nicer areas. The lowest prices in places like Carmel Valley up the coast were paid in 2009 and 2010. By 2011 short sales were petering out and by 2012 they were virtually gone and became very rare. A relative got divorced and had to by out his ex-wife during the downturn. He did so and the value of his home was never lower than in 2009 when his divorce settled.

[FlyerInHi]

The bottom is the topic. When it made sense to buy vs rent is a different topic altogether. You could also be buying for investment and timing your purchase according to your means.

I would argue that the consensus is 2012 as the bottom for the housing market. 2009 is just too soon after the great recession.

[Author]

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