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December 14, 2010 at 9:31 PM #640612December 14, 2010 at 10:24 PM #639532
CA renter
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]
Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.
How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]
deadzone,
You’ll have to join our table at Donovans.
Sdr and I have had this bet going for a couple of years now, IIRC. I bet him that we’d see 30-40% drops in our neighborhood/area by December 2012 (have it written down somewhere, but forgot the exact details at the moment). Sdr can buy us both dinner at the same time. You and I can gloat all night. 🙂
Of course, if he wins, we’ll have to let him gloat, too. 😉
BTW, I’ll be happy to confirm the property info and will report back if sdr’s buyer got 1999/2000 pricing. I don’t doubt it, to be honest; there have been a few deals to be had here and there. Also, I honestly don’t think his buyer will see losses IF he/she really got a 1999/2000 price on their purchase, and if it’s a custom home on a nice lot in a desirable area. I’m a bear, but can still acknowledge that some properties won’t drop much below 2000/20001 levels unless something **really bad** happens.
December 14, 2010 at 10:24 PM #639603CA renter
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]
Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.
How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]
deadzone,
You’ll have to join our table at Donovans.
Sdr and I have had this bet going for a couple of years now, IIRC. I bet him that we’d see 30-40% drops in our neighborhood/area by December 2012 (have it written down somewhere, but forgot the exact details at the moment). Sdr can buy us both dinner at the same time. You and I can gloat all night. 🙂
Of course, if he wins, we’ll have to let him gloat, too. 😉
BTW, I’ll be happy to confirm the property info and will report back if sdr’s buyer got 1999/2000 pricing. I don’t doubt it, to be honest; there have been a few deals to be had here and there. Also, I honestly don’t think his buyer will see losses IF he/she really got a 1999/2000 price on their purchase, and if it’s a custom home on a nice lot in a desirable area. I’m a bear, but can still acknowledge that some properties won’t drop much below 2000/20001 levels unless something **really bad** happens.
December 14, 2010 at 10:24 PM #640184CA renter
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]
Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.
How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]
deadzone,
You’ll have to join our table at Donovans.
Sdr and I have had this bet going for a couple of years now, IIRC. I bet him that we’d see 30-40% drops in our neighborhood/area by December 2012 (have it written down somewhere, but forgot the exact details at the moment). Sdr can buy us both dinner at the same time. You and I can gloat all night. 🙂
Of course, if he wins, we’ll have to let him gloat, too. 😉
BTW, I’ll be happy to confirm the property info and will report back if sdr’s buyer got 1999/2000 pricing. I don’t doubt it, to be honest; there have been a few deals to be had here and there. Also, I honestly don’t think his buyer will see losses IF he/she really got a 1999/2000 price on their purchase, and if it’s a custom home on a nice lot in a desirable area. I’m a bear, but can still acknowledge that some properties won’t drop much below 2000/20001 levels unless something **really bad** happens.
December 14, 2010 at 10:24 PM #640320CA renter
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]
Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.
How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]
deadzone,
You’ll have to join our table at Donovans.
Sdr and I have had this bet going for a couple of years now, IIRC. I bet him that we’d see 30-40% drops in our neighborhood/area by December 2012 (have it written down somewhere, but forgot the exact details at the moment). Sdr can buy us both dinner at the same time. You and I can gloat all night. 🙂
Of course, if he wins, we’ll have to let him gloat, too. 😉
BTW, I’ll be happy to confirm the property info and will report back if sdr’s buyer got 1999/2000 pricing. I don’t doubt it, to be honest; there have been a few deals to be had here and there. Also, I honestly don’t think his buyer will see losses IF he/she really got a 1999/2000 price on their purchase, and if it’s a custom home on a nice lot in a desirable area. I’m a bear, but can still acknowledge that some properties won’t drop much below 2000/20001 levels unless something **really bad** happens.
December 14, 2010 at 10:24 PM #640637CA renter
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]
Regardless I don’ think there is any point to betting on a single property anyway. Cherry picking one particular property doesn’t change the fact that generally speaking prices are much more likely to go down in the next two years than up.
How about this for a bet: I say December 2012 Case Shiller for San Diego will be at least 10% lower than December 2010. Dinner at Donovans.[/quote]
deadzone,
You’ll have to join our table at Donovans.
Sdr and I have had this bet going for a couple of years now, IIRC. I bet him that we’d see 30-40% drops in our neighborhood/area by December 2012 (have it written down somewhere, but forgot the exact details at the moment). Sdr can buy us both dinner at the same time. You and I can gloat all night. 🙂
Of course, if he wins, we’ll have to let him gloat, too. 😉
BTW, I’ll be happy to confirm the property info and will report back if sdr’s buyer got 1999/2000 pricing. I don’t doubt it, to be honest; there have been a few deals to be had here and there. Also, I honestly don’t think his buyer will see losses IF he/she really got a 1999/2000 price on their purchase, and if it’s a custom home on a nice lot in a desirable area. I’m a bear, but can still acknowledge that some properties won’t drop much below 2000/20001 levels unless something **really bad** happens.
December 14, 2010 at 10:54 PM #639542CA renter
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]CAR, I understand what you’re trying to say here re: supply and demand. But RE values in coastal CA counties are determined by sold-comps in their respective “micro-markets.”
For instance, if small dry-rotted “Drogan-style” SFR’s in Loma Portal (92110) have recently sold for =< $500K, you may NOT find any comparably-sized SFR sold comps =<$500K in Plumosa Park (92106), even though the two areas are 1/2 to 1 mile apart.
Even if these two areas were in the same zip code, living in Plumosa Park has several advantages over Loma Portal.
-custom homes (not on tract)
-larger lots
-some wider sidewalks
-grassy traffic circle
-“Historic” low-glow street lamps
-some “Historic” homes
-occasional use of curved glass lends “character” to area
-raised foundations (easier to fix plumbing/heating)
-longtime dog-walking group
-caroling groups at X-masPotential buyers for this area may not need a mortgage (or lg mtg) in order to purchase. They may be downsizing retirees or an individual with a construction background who wishes to rehab a personal residence for his/her family or to retire in.
The attractive locations and ambiance of these areas attracts buyers who are not interest-rate and job-sensitive.[/quote]
These areas were attracting buyers who were not interest-rate sensitie or job sensitive 10 years ago, as well. I guess that’s the point: IMHO, we will see the same price *ratios* between neighborhoods/classes of properties that we saw historically. Right now, the spread is artificially wide.
Usually, you’ll see price compression at turning points in the market. At this moment, the artificial Fed/govt supports have prevented price compression from happening. Price differences between the high and low ends is at abnormally high levels, which indicates to me that we are only halfway through the downturn, with the high end set to take the brunt of the declines in the next leg down.
That’s just MHO, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
December 14, 2010 at 10:54 PM #639613CA renter
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]CAR, I understand what you’re trying to say here re: supply and demand. But RE values in coastal CA counties are determined by sold-comps in their respective “micro-markets.”
For instance, if small dry-rotted “Drogan-style” SFR’s in Loma Portal (92110) have recently sold for =< $500K, you may NOT find any comparably-sized SFR sold comps =<$500K in Plumosa Park (92106), even though the two areas are 1/2 to 1 mile apart.
Even if these two areas were in the same zip code, living in Plumosa Park has several advantages over Loma Portal.
-custom homes (not on tract)
-larger lots
-some wider sidewalks
-grassy traffic circle
-“Historic” low-glow street lamps
-some “Historic” homes
-occasional use of curved glass lends “character” to area
-raised foundations (easier to fix plumbing/heating)
-longtime dog-walking group
-caroling groups at X-masPotential buyers for this area may not need a mortgage (or lg mtg) in order to purchase. They may be downsizing retirees or an individual with a construction background who wishes to rehab a personal residence for his/her family or to retire in.
The attractive locations and ambiance of these areas attracts buyers who are not interest-rate and job-sensitive.[/quote]
These areas were attracting buyers who were not interest-rate sensitie or job sensitive 10 years ago, as well. I guess that’s the point: IMHO, we will see the same price *ratios* between neighborhoods/classes of properties that we saw historically. Right now, the spread is artificially wide.
Usually, you’ll see price compression at turning points in the market. At this moment, the artificial Fed/govt supports have prevented price compression from happening. Price differences between the high and low ends is at abnormally high levels, which indicates to me that we are only halfway through the downturn, with the high end set to take the brunt of the declines in the next leg down.
That’s just MHO, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
December 14, 2010 at 10:54 PM #640194CA renter
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]CAR, I understand what you’re trying to say here re: supply and demand. But RE values in coastal CA counties are determined by sold-comps in their respective “micro-markets.”
For instance, if small dry-rotted “Drogan-style” SFR’s in Loma Portal (92110) have recently sold for =< $500K, you may NOT find any comparably-sized SFR sold comps =<$500K in Plumosa Park (92106), even though the two areas are 1/2 to 1 mile apart.
Even if these two areas were in the same zip code, living in Plumosa Park has several advantages over Loma Portal.
-custom homes (not on tract)
-larger lots
-some wider sidewalks
-grassy traffic circle
-“Historic” low-glow street lamps
-some “Historic” homes
-occasional use of curved glass lends “character” to area
-raised foundations (easier to fix plumbing/heating)
-longtime dog-walking group
-caroling groups at X-masPotential buyers for this area may not need a mortgage (or lg mtg) in order to purchase. They may be downsizing retirees or an individual with a construction background who wishes to rehab a personal residence for his/her family or to retire in.
The attractive locations and ambiance of these areas attracts buyers who are not interest-rate and job-sensitive.[/quote]
These areas were attracting buyers who were not interest-rate sensitie or job sensitive 10 years ago, as well. I guess that’s the point: IMHO, we will see the same price *ratios* between neighborhoods/classes of properties that we saw historically. Right now, the spread is artificially wide.
Usually, you’ll see price compression at turning points in the market. At this moment, the artificial Fed/govt supports have prevented price compression from happening. Price differences between the high and low ends is at abnormally high levels, which indicates to me that we are only halfway through the downturn, with the high end set to take the brunt of the declines in the next leg down.
That’s just MHO, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
December 14, 2010 at 10:54 PM #640330CA renter
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]CAR, I understand what you’re trying to say here re: supply and demand. But RE values in coastal CA counties are determined by sold-comps in their respective “micro-markets.”
For instance, if small dry-rotted “Drogan-style” SFR’s in Loma Portal (92110) have recently sold for =< $500K, you may NOT find any comparably-sized SFR sold comps =<$500K in Plumosa Park (92106), even though the two areas are 1/2 to 1 mile apart.
Even if these two areas were in the same zip code, living in Plumosa Park has several advantages over Loma Portal.
-custom homes (not on tract)
-larger lots
-some wider sidewalks
-grassy traffic circle
-“Historic” low-glow street lamps
-some “Historic” homes
-occasional use of curved glass lends “character” to area
-raised foundations (easier to fix plumbing/heating)
-longtime dog-walking group
-caroling groups at X-masPotential buyers for this area may not need a mortgage (or lg mtg) in order to purchase. They may be downsizing retirees or an individual with a construction background who wishes to rehab a personal residence for his/her family or to retire in.
The attractive locations and ambiance of these areas attracts buyers who are not interest-rate and job-sensitive.[/quote]
These areas were attracting buyers who were not interest-rate sensitie or job sensitive 10 years ago, as well. I guess that’s the point: IMHO, we will see the same price *ratios* between neighborhoods/classes of properties that we saw historically. Right now, the spread is artificially wide.
Usually, you’ll see price compression at turning points in the market. At this moment, the artificial Fed/govt supports have prevented price compression from happening. Price differences between the high and low ends is at abnormally high levels, which indicates to me that we are only halfway through the downturn, with the high end set to take the brunt of the declines in the next leg down.
That’s just MHO, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
December 14, 2010 at 10:54 PM #640647CA renter
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]CAR, I understand what you’re trying to say here re: supply and demand. But RE values in coastal CA counties are determined by sold-comps in their respective “micro-markets.”
For instance, if small dry-rotted “Drogan-style” SFR’s in Loma Portal (92110) have recently sold for =< $500K, you may NOT find any comparably-sized SFR sold comps =<$500K in Plumosa Park (92106), even though the two areas are 1/2 to 1 mile apart.
Even if these two areas were in the same zip code, living in Plumosa Park has several advantages over Loma Portal.
-custom homes (not on tract)
-larger lots
-some wider sidewalks
-grassy traffic circle
-“Historic” low-glow street lamps
-some “Historic” homes
-occasional use of curved glass lends “character” to area
-raised foundations (easier to fix plumbing/heating)
-longtime dog-walking group
-caroling groups at X-masPotential buyers for this area may not need a mortgage (or lg mtg) in order to purchase. They may be downsizing retirees or an individual with a construction background who wishes to rehab a personal residence for his/her family or to retire in.
The attractive locations and ambiance of these areas attracts buyers who are not interest-rate and job-sensitive.[/quote]
These areas were attracting buyers who were not interest-rate sensitie or job sensitive 10 years ago, as well. I guess that’s the point: IMHO, we will see the same price *ratios* between neighborhoods/classes of properties that we saw historically. Right now, the spread is artificially wide.
Usually, you’ll see price compression at turning points in the market. At this moment, the artificial Fed/govt supports have prevented price compression from happening. Price differences between the high and low ends is at abnormally high levels, which indicates to me that we are only halfway through the downturn, with the high end set to take the brunt of the declines in the next leg down.
That’s just MHO, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
December 14, 2010 at 11:59 PM #639562outtamojo
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]
I meant Deadzone – it’s never kosher to publish someone’s address on the internet, putting the address in an escrow account was the perfect solution.
December 14, 2010 at 11:59 PM #639633outtamojo
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]
I meant Deadzone – it’s never kosher to publish someone’s address on the internet, putting the address in an escrow account was the perfect solution.
December 14, 2010 at 11:59 PM #640214outtamojo
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]
I meant Deadzone – it’s never kosher to publish someone’s address on the internet, putting the address in an escrow account was the perfect solution.
December 14, 2010 at 11:59 PM #640350outtamojo
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Not coppin out. Just struggling with disclosing a private information to someone I dont know. If I had met deadzone at a meetup or one of the longtime piggs could vouch for him, I’ll be all over it. I’m mulling it over and perhaps we could do it offline once the transaction closes.[/quote]
I meant Deadzone – it’s never kosher to publish someone’s address on the internet, putting the address in an escrow account was the perfect solution.
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