housing recovery rate

[rubberducky]

So, let me know if I’ve mis-posted this.

When the market recovers, what’s the rate ya’ll think we can expect to achieve for houses?

Some of the articles I read claim 5% is optimistic.

My wife’s employment has all but disappeared, dramatically impacting our household income. My outlook on employment is probably pessimistic

And I’m told that, as of last year, only about 10% of San Diego residents could even afford my house using a full-doc approach (which is a given for years to come, I’m sure). Any thoughts on this (price below) would be welcome.

Current comps put my house in at about $420-480K, I paid $679 when I bought it 3 years ago (yes, I am now paying for not heeding what I saw on this site, which I thought was full of crackpots at the time. I’m an idiot, my penance is… well, read on).

My intent was a home, not an investment, but I did sink about 24% into the house as a down, then got a 30 year fixed, adding insult to injury (instead of an ARM where some bozo would be writing me a check for the difference apparently).

My thought is that houses will move quickly back up to FHA-max, where they’re worth it (whatever that means), and then it’ll be a slooooow climb up as people will not be getting insane loans which allow them to overspend.

My choices are
a) Suck it up for N years (N probably is 10-15 years), hope I keep my job, and hope this isn’t the next depression since we now live paycheck to paycheck and have exhausted much of our savings keeping up.
b) cut bait and take the credit beating (short sale (unlikely), deed in lieu, ????)

Thanks
RD

[paranoid]

If the US is going the japanese road, then you can look at how the housing market there recovered. Let’s see, the peak was in 1989. the current price is still about 60% (?!) below that peak.
I can only hope you good luck if you decide keeping the mortgage.

[paranoid]

If the US is going the japanese road, then you can look at how the housing market there recovered. Let’s see, the peak was in 1989. the current price is still about 60% (?!) below that peak.
I can only hope you good luck if you decide keeping the mortgage.

[paranoid]

If the US is going the japanese road, then you can look at how the housing market there recovered. Let’s see, the peak was in 1989. the current price is still about 60% (?!) below that peak.
I can only hope you good luck if you decide keeping the mortgage.

[paranoid]

If the US is going the japanese road, then you can look at how the housing market there recovered. Let’s see, the peak was in 1989. the current price is still about 60% (?!) below that peak.
I can only hope you good luck if you decide keeping the mortgage.

[paranoid]

If the US is going the japanese road, then you can look at how the housing market there recovered. Let’s see, the peak was in 1989. the current price is still about 60% (?!) below that peak.
I can only hope you good luck if you decide keeping the mortgage.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

24% down implies that you took a loan of about 517K.
On a 30-year fixed over 3 years the principal should be about 500K now.
You are only underwater by about 80k. No matter what you do, the down payment is currently lost. Some might suggest that you walk away, but the “benefit” (80K) of short sale or deed-in-lieu may not be worth it in my opinion.

A couple of pieces of information that I would use to judge your situation objectively :
1. What would the house rent for ?
2. What area/neighborhood ?

Given answers to these two questions would give us a feel for the downside and upside potential.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

24% down implies that you took a loan of about 517K.
On a 30-year fixed over 3 years the principal should be about 500K now.
You are only underwater by about 80k. No matter what you do, the down payment is currently lost. Some might suggest that you walk away, but the “benefit” (80K) of short sale or deed-in-lieu may not be worth it in my opinion.

A couple of pieces of information that I would use to judge your situation objectively :
1. What would the house rent for ?
2. What area/neighborhood ?

Given answers to these two questions would give us a feel for the downside and upside potential.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

24% down implies that you took a loan of about 517K.
On a 30-year fixed over 3 years the principal should be about 500K now.
You are only underwater by about 80k. No matter what you do, the down payment is currently lost. Some might suggest that you walk away, but the “benefit” (80K) of short sale or deed-in-lieu may not be worth it in my opinion.

A couple of pieces of information that I would use to judge your situation objectively :
1. What would the house rent for ?
2. What area/neighborhood ?

Given answers to these two questions would give us a feel for the downside and upside potential.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

24% down implies that you took a loan of about 517K.
On a 30-year fixed over 3 years the principal should be about 500K now.
You are only underwater by about 80k. No matter what you do, the down payment is currently lost. Some might suggest that you walk away, but the “benefit” (80K) of short sale or deed-in-lieu may not be worth it in my opinion.

A couple of pieces of information that I would use to judge your situation objectively :
1. What would the house rent for ?
2. What area/neighborhood ?

Given answers to these two questions would give us a feel for the downside and upside potential.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

24% down implies that you took a loan of about 517K.
On a 30-year fixed over 3 years the principal should be about 500K now.
You are only underwater by about 80k. No matter what you do, the down payment is currently lost. Some might suggest that you walk away, but the “benefit” (80K) of short sale or deed-in-lieu may not be worth it in my opinion.

A couple of pieces of information that I would use to judge your situation objectively :
1. What would the house rent for ?
2. What area/neighborhood ?

Given answers to these two questions would give us a feel for the downside and upside potential.

[SDEngineer]

As Rich’s investment site notes (in “US Not Going Down Japan’s Road” on the right hand column at the top), it’s not likely we’re in for a Japanese scenario. This will be a different kettle of fish here – the Japanese chose not to inflate their way out of their mess. We, on the other hand, are clearly choosing to inflate our way out of ours.

Regardless, over the long run (>40 year timeframe), housing has appreciated at no more that the rate of wage inflation (historically, about 3.5% per year averaged over the long term). 5% is indeed optimistic, but possible as we’re probably headed for a period of serious inflation, which will eventually (although not at the start, when inflation will primarily strike commodities, thus increasing cost of living) have the likely effect of inflating wages as well.

[SDEngineer]

As Rich’s investment site notes (in “US Not Going Down Japan’s Road” on the right hand column at the top), it’s not likely we’re in for a Japanese scenario. This will be a different kettle of fish here – the Japanese chose not to inflate their way out of their mess. We, on the other hand, are clearly choosing to inflate our way out of ours.

Regardless, over the long run (>40 year timeframe), housing has appreciated at no more that the rate of wage inflation (historically, about 3.5% per year averaged over the long term). 5% is indeed optimistic, but possible as we’re probably headed for a period of serious inflation, which will eventually (although not at the start, when inflation will primarily strike commodities, thus increasing cost of living) have the likely effect of inflating wages as well.

[SDEngineer]

As Rich’s investment site notes (in “US Not Going Down Japan’s Road” on the right hand column at the top), it’s not likely we’re in for a Japanese scenario. This will be a different kettle of fish here – the Japanese chose not to inflate their way out of their mess. We, on the other hand, are clearly choosing to inflate our way out of ours.

Regardless, over the long run (>40 year timeframe), housing has appreciated at no more that the rate of wage inflation (historically, about 3.5% per year averaged over the long term). 5% is indeed optimistic, but possible as we’re probably headed for a period of serious inflation, which will eventually (although not at the start, when inflation will primarily strike commodities, thus increasing cost of living) have the likely effect of inflating wages as well.

[SDEngineer]

As Rich’s investment site notes (in “US Not Going Down Japan’s Road” on the right hand column at the top), it’s not likely we’re in for a Japanese scenario. This will be a different kettle of fish here – the Japanese chose not to inflate their way out of their mess. We, on the other hand, are clearly choosing to inflate our way out of ours.

Regardless, over the long run (>40 year timeframe), housing has appreciated at no more that the rate of wage inflation (historically, about 3.5% per year averaged over the long term). 5% is indeed optimistic, but possible as we’re probably headed for a period of serious inflation, which will eventually (although not at the start, when inflation will primarily strike commodities, thus increasing cost of living) have the likely effect of inflating wages as well.

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